Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Although this note does not encapsulate a trade idea, the fallout from the Capital Management Limited's (Segantii) insider dealing case has impacted certain event trades, as the fund winds down.</li>
<li>On the 2nd May, the SFC commenced criminal proceedings against Segantii, its founder/  director/CIO Simon Sadler, and former trader Daniel La Rocca.</li>
<li>In the Eastern Magistrates' Court this morning, we heard the prosecution's request to transfer the case to the District Court. </li>
</ul>


Although this note does not encapsulate a trade idea, the fallout from the Capital Management Limited's (Segantii) insider dealing case has impacted certain event trades, as the fund winds down.
On the 2nd May, the SFC commenced criminal proceedings against Segantii, its founder/  director/CIO Simon Sadler, and former trader Daniel La Rocca.
In the Eastern Magistrates' Court this morning, we heard the prosecution's request to transfer the case to the District Court. 


Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Palliser/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> is an unconvincing trade. Avoid being long Keisei vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> except in short-term impact events. Avoid the drift trade also.</li>
<li>On the subject of activism, keep an eye on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a>'s 20th June AGM. If Kan's re-election is rejected, this stock should gain more momentum.</li>
<li>A <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>/Chemist Warehouse merger carried regulatory risk. And now the ACCC has raised a raft of concerns. </li>
</ul>


The Palliser/Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is an unconvincing trade. Avoid being long Keisei vs Oriental Land (4661 JP) except in short-term impact events. Avoid the drift trade also.
On the subject of activism, keep an eye on China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)'s 20th June AGM. If Kan's re-election is rejected, this stock should gain more momentum.
A Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)/Chemist Warehouse merger carried regulatory risk. And now the ACCC has raised a raft of concerns. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CMCDI, Sigma Healthcare, Sun Corp, Segantii

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The offeror and acceptances reached 46.04%, just short of the 50% minimum acceptance condition. The offeror has decided to let the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a> offer lapse.</li>
<li>The offer fell short of the 50% threshold as the Cheng family mistakenly assumed that shareholders behind Halycon's stake were friendly shares, which would support the offer.</li>
<li>The downside will be muted as the shares are trading in line with the 1-year average forward P/E, minorities thought the offer was low, and David Webb is a buyer.</li>
</ul>


The offeror and acceptances reached 46.04%, just short of the 50% minimum acceptance condition. The offeror has decided to let the Giordano International (709 HK) offer lapse.
The offer fell short of the 50% threshold as the Cheng family mistakenly assumed that shareholders behind Halycon's stake were friendly shares, which would support the offer.
The downside will be muted as the shares are trading in line with the 1-year average forward P/E, minorities thought the offer was low, and David Webb is a buyer.


<ul>
<li>The offeror and acceptances reached 44.98%, just short of the 50% minimum acceptance condition. The closing date has been extended to 13 September. </li>
<li>If the offer is declared unconditional on or before 8 September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a> shareholders who accept the offer will get HK$1.88 but not the dividend of HK$0.085.</li>
<li>The offeror likely remains confident that it will hit the 50% threshold. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for 17 Sep payment is 1.1% and 37.2%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The offeror and acceptances reached 44.98%, just short of the 50% minimum acceptance condition. The closing date has been extended to 13 September. 
If the offer is declared unconditional on or before 8 September, Giordano International (709 HK) shareholders who accept the offer will get HK$1.88 but not the dividend of HK$0.085.
The offeror likely remains confident that it will hit the 50% threshold. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for 17 Sep payment is 1.1% and 37.2%, respectively.


Giordano’s Acceptances Just Short of the 50% Voting Threshold; Offer Period Extended

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>’s 1H22 net profit of HK$97 million was within the HK$91-101 million positive profit range. The IFA noted that interims do not change its advice.</li>
<li>The Board surprisingly declared an interim dividend of HK$0.085 per share. As the ex-div falls after the final closing date, shareholders who accept the offer will not receive the dividend. </li>
<li>The incrementally positive outlook and dividend highlight Giordano’s value. The results have pushed our deal break/intrinsic value to align with the VGO price. </li>
</ul>



Giordano International (709 HK)’s 1H22 net profit of HK$97 million was within the HK$91-101 million positive profit range. The IFA noted that interims do not change its advice.
The Board surprisingly declared an interim dividend of HK$0.085 per share. As the ex-div falls after the final closing date, shareholders who accept the offer will not receive the dividend. 
The incrementally positive outlook and dividend highlight Giordano’s value. The results have pushed our deal break/intrinsic value to align with the VGO price. 


Giordano’s Improving Outlook and Surprising Dividend Provide Deal-Break Support

Hong Kong

Esprit Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, designs, licenses, sources, wholesales, and retails high quality life-style products under the ESPRIT brand name in Europe, Asia Pacific and North America.  The Company also sells Red Earth cosmetics, skin, and body care products and operates Salon Esprit in Asia Pacific.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Esprit Holdings (330 HK)

In Court Today With Segantii

Although this note does not encapsulate a trade idea, the fallout from the Capital Management Limited's (Segantii) insider dealing case has...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CMCDI, Sigma Healthcare, Sun Corp, Segantii

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Giordano’s VGO Lapses

The downside will be muted as the shares are trading in line with the 1-year average forward P/E, minorities thought the offer was low, and David...

Arun George

Giordano’s Acceptances Just Short of the 50% Voting Threshold; Offer Period Extended

The next few days will likely take the offeror over the 50% voting threshold. At last close and the HK$1.88 VGO price, the annualised spread for...

Arun George

Giordano’s Improving Outlook and Surprising Dividend Provide Deal-Break Support

The declining gross spread does not reflect an increased probability of an unconditional offer but Giordano’s rising intrinsic value, which is...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)