Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger is expected to trigger index changes in the next few days and we take a look at our expectations for these intra-review changes.</li>
<li>Apart from that, I see no other changes for SENSEX in December 2023. However, there could be up to six changes for both BSE 100 and BSE 200.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
The HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger is expected to trigger index changes in the next few days and we take a look at our expectations for these intra-review changes.
Apart from that, I see no other changes for SENSEX in December 2023. However, there could be up to six changes for both BSE 100 and BSE 200.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​SENSEX Dec 23: HDFC Intra-Review Replacements & Other Expected Changes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>May’23 Wholesale Volumes: Domestic 2W dispatches stood strong, PV up YoY (flat MoM) while CV/Tractor sales were mixed: The Domestic 2W industry reported strong growth of ~27% YoY (albeit on a low base), even with some recovery evident on an MoM basis (up 18% MoM).</li><li>2W exports remained weak YoY, but has improved MoM (Bajaj and TVS exports up by 6-7% MoM).</li><li>The domestic PV industry reported a robust 16% YoY growth (flat MoM) despite a few OEMs having reported production constraints (M&amp;M and Maruti pointed towards chip shortages).  </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

May’23 Wholesale Volumes: Domestic 2W dispatches stood strong, PV up YoY (flat MoM) while CV/Tractor sales were mixed: The Domestic 2W industry reported strong growth of ~27% YoY (albeit on a low base), even with some recovery evident on an MoM basis (up 18% MoM).2W exports remained weak YoY, but has improved MoM (Bajaj and TVS exports up by 6-7% MoM).The domestic PV industry reported a robust 16% YoY growth (flat MoM) despite a few OEMs having reported production constraints (M&amp;M and Maruti pointed towards chip shortages).  Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Monthly Volume Update - Automotive Industry

Equity Bottom-Up

Escorts Kubota Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Escorts Kubota Ltd (EKL) revenues for Q4FY23 were reported at Rs 2,214 Cr (up 17% YoY but down 3% QoQ), which was in line with our estimates.</li><li>The sequential revenue growth was led by lower tractor sales (down 12% QoQ/ up 14% YoY ) on account of the advancement of the festive season in Mar’23 as against Apr’23 in the last year, combined with the unseasonal rainfall.</li><li>The company’s EBITDA stood at Rs 233 Cr (down 6% YoY but up 22% QoQ) and beat our/consensus estimates by 14%/21% respectively.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Escorts Kubota Ltd (EKL) revenues for Q4FY23 were reported at Rs 2,214 Cr (up 17% YoY but down 3% QoQ), which was in line with our estimates.The sequential revenue growth was led by lower tractor sales (down 12% QoQ/ up 14% YoY ) on account of the advancement of the festive season in Mar’23 as against Apr’23 in the last year, combined with the unseasonal rainfall.The company’s EBITDA stood at Rs 233 Cr (down 6% YoY but up 22% QoQ) and beat our/consensus estimates by 14%/21% respectively.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Escorts Kubota Ltd - Long-Term Growth Drivers Intact; Maintain BUY

<ul><li>We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT of Auto OEMs under our coverage to grow at 19%/29%/29% YoY in Q4FY23.</li><li>On a sequential basis, too, we expect Auto OEMs to register a growth of 8%/11%/11%, which would be led by double-digit volume growth in the PV/CV segment (though this will be partially offset by lower 2W sales on account of lower exports).</li><li>EBITDA margins are expected to expand both YoY/QoQ due to a richer product mix, absorption of price hikes, and marginally lower RM costs.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT of Auto OEMs under our coverage to grow at 19%/29%/29% YoY in Q4FY23.On a sequential basis, too, we expect Auto OEMs to register a growth of 8%/11%/11%, which would be led by double-digit volume growth in the PV/CV segment (though this will be partially offset by lower 2W sales on account of lower exports).EBITDA margins are expected to expand both YoY/QoQ due to a richer product mix, absorption of price hikes, and marginally lower RM costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto Q4fy23 Preview - Improved Product Mix, Moderation in Rm Costs to Drive Margin Growth

<ul><li>The Domestic PV industry sales grew by ~6% YoY (flat MoM) to fulfill the order backlogs, especially in the SUV segment as the production constraints eased.</li><li>Domestic CV sales stood robust, up 12% YoY and 27% MoM led by strong infra push, higher replacement demand, and advanced buying in anticipation of price hikes post Apr’23 (on OBD Phase II norms).</li><li>Domestic 2W Wholesales grew by ~20% YoY/MoM (exl. HMSI and Bajaj) on the low base of the last year and post the weak Jan- Feb’23 dispatches.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The Domestic PV industry sales grew by ~6% YoY (flat MoM) to fulfill the order backlogs, especially in the SUV segment as the production constraints eased.Domestic CV sales stood robust, up 12% YoY and 27% MoM led by strong infra push, higher replacement demand, and advanced buying in anticipation of price hikes post Apr’23 (on OBD Phase II norms).Domestic 2W Wholesales grew by ~20% YoY/MoM (exl. HMSI and Bajaj) on the low base of the last year and post the weak Jan- Feb’23 dispatches.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Automotive Industry - Mar’23 Wholesale Dispatches Continue to Grow YoY

India

Escorts Kubota Limited is among India's leading engineering conglomerates, operating in the high growth sectors of Agri Machinery, Material Handling, Construction Equipment and Railway Equipment. The Group has earned the trust of over 5 million customers by way of product and process innovations over seven decades.

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Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: HDFC Intra-Review Replacements & Other Expected Changes

Adani Enterprises or JSW Steel Ltd could replace HDFC in SENSEX. Hindustan Aeronautics and Linde India could be the replacement names for HDFC in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Monthly Volume Update - Automotive Industry

The Domestic 2W industry reported strong growth of ~27% YoY (albeit on a low base), even with some recovery evident on an MoM basis (up 18% MoM).

Axis Direct

Escorts Kubota Ltd - Long-Term Growth Drivers Intact; Maintain BUY

Escorts Kubota Ltd (EKL) revenues for Q4FY23 were reported at Rs 2,214 Cr (up 17% YoY but down 3% QoQ), which was in line with our estimates.

Axis Direct

Auto Q4fy23 Preview - Improved Product Mix, Moderation in Rm Costs to Drive Margin Growth

EBITDA margins are expected to expand both YoY/QoQ due to a richer product mix, absorption of price hikes, and marginally lower RM costs.

Axis Direct

Automotive Industry - Mar’23 Wholesale Dispatches Continue to Grow YoY

The Domestic PV industry sales grew by ~6% YoY (flat MoM) to fulfill the order backlogs, especially in the SUV segment as the production...

Axis Direct

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Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​SENSEX Dec 23: HDFC Intra-Review Replacements & Other Expected Changes

Adani Enterprises or JSW Steel Ltd could replace HDFC in SENSEX. Hindustan Aeronautics and Linde India could be the replacement names for HDFC in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Monthly Volume Update - Automotive Industry

The Domestic 2W industry reported strong growth of ~27% YoY (albeit on a low base), even with some recovery evident on an MoM basis (up 18% MoM).

Axis Direct

Escorts Kubota Ltd - Long-Term Growth Drivers Intact; Maintain BUY

Escorts Kubota Ltd (EKL) revenues for Q4FY23 were reported at Rs 2,214 Cr (up 17% YoY but down 3% QoQ), which was in line with our estimates.

Axis Direct

Auto Q4fy23 Preview - Improved Product Mix, Moderation in Rm Costs to Drive Margin Growth

EBITDA margins are expected to expand both YoY/QoQ due to a richer product mix, absorption of price hikes, and marginally lower RM costs.

Axis Direct

Automotive Industry - Mar’23 Wholesale Dispatches Continue to Grow YoY

The Domestic PV industry sales grew by ~6% YoY (flat MoM) to fulfill the order backlogs, especially in the SUV segment as the production...

Axis Direct

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: HDFC Intra-Review Replacements & Other Expected Changes