Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 42.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 32bn (US$384m). There are 13 stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade, mostly on the deletes.</li>
<li>After steady outperformance over the last few months, there was a selloff in momentum names following the announcement of the election results. There has been a recovery since then.</li>
</ul>


There are 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 42.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 32bn (US$384m). There are 13 stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade, mostly on the deletes.
After steady outperformance over the last few months, there was a selloff in momentum names following the announcement of the election results. There has been a recovery since then.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes, 42% Turnover, Momentum Recovers After Selloff

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>May’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) grew by 6%/4%YoY/MoM, largely led by strong domestic SUV volumes across Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) , which were partly offset by weakness in entry-level cars and exports (in Maruti).</li><li>The domestic 2W industry after witnessing strong double digit growth on a low base, witnessed volume growth of ~10% YoY (down 8% MoM) and export volume grew 12% YoY (down 7% MoM) respectively.</li><li>The domestic CV industry sales grew by ~3% YoY (flat MoM), driven by high volumes in the bus segment. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

May’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) grew by 6%/4%YoY/MoM, largely led by strong domestic SUV volumes across Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) , which were partly offset by weakness in entry-level cars and exports (in Maruti).The domestic 2W industry after witnessing strong double digit growth on a low base, witnessed volume growth of ~10% YoY (down 8% MoM) and export volume grew 12% YoY (down 7% MoM) respectively.The domestic CV industry sales grew by ~3% YoY (flat MoM), driven by high volumes in the bus segment. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>There could be 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 48.8% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 35.5bn (US$426m).</li>
<li>Since January, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the potential deletes by a big margin. Watch out for the general election results on 4 June for momentum change.</li>
</ul>


There could be 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 48.8% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 35.5bn (US$426m).
Since January, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the potential deletes by a big margin. Watch out for the general election results on 4 June for momentum change.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 49% Turnover; US$850m Trade; Election Results Coming

<ul><li>Apr’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) grew by low single-digits YoY, largely led by strong SUV volumes across OEMs, which were partly offset by continued weakness in entry-level cars (in Maruti).</li><li>The 2W industry reported strong domestic volume growth of ~31%/19% YoY/MoM and export volume growth of 24% YoY (flat MoM) respectively.</li><li>The domestic CV industry sales grew by ~14% YoY (down 26% MoM). The 3W domestic wholesales for Bajaj grew by 3% while TVS/M&amp;M de-grew by 21%/1% YoY respectively.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Apr’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) grew by low single-digits YoY, largely led by strong SUV volumes across OEMs, which were partly offset by continued weakness in entry-level cars (in Maruti).The 2W industry reported strong domestic volume growth of ~31%/19% YoY/MoM and export volume growth of 24% YoY (flat MoM) respectively.The domestic CV industry sales grew by ~14% YoY (down 26% MoM). The 3W domestic wholesales for Bajaj grew by 3% while TVS/M&amp;M de-grew by 21%/1% YoY respectively.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

SBI Cards & Payment Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We screen our coverage universe for earnings disappointments, EPS downgrades, and management narratives to identify fundamental shorts.</li>
<li>Stocks in focus include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-cards-payment-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28662:1" rel="noopener">SBI Cards &amp; Payment Services (SBICARD IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pvr-inox-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10144:1" rel="noopener">Pvr Inox (PVRINOX IN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/escorts-kubota-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6773:1" rel="noopener">Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)</a>. </li>
<li>Credit Cost for SBI is expected to remain elevated, PVR management seems to be misreading consumer preferences, and Macro uncertainties cloud ESCORTS.</li>
</ul>


We screen our coverage universe for earnings disappointments, EPS downgrades, and management narratives to identify fundamental shorts.
Stocks in focus include SBI Cards &amp; Payment Services (SBICARD IN) , Pvr Inox (PVRINOX IN), and Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN). 
Credit Cost for SBI is expected to remain elevated, PVR management seems to be misreading consumer preferences, and Macro uncertainties cloud ESCORTS.


Fundamental Shorts - SBI Cards | PVR Inox | Escorts Kubota

India

Escorts Kubota Limited is among India's leading engineering conglomerates, operating in the high growth sectors of Agri Machinery, Material Handling, Construction Equipment and Railway Equipment. The Group has earned the trust of over 5 million customers by way of product and process innovations over seven decades.

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Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes, 42% Turnover, Momentum Recovers After Selloff

There are 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index. Estimated one-way turnover is 42.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 32bn. The adds...

Brian Freitas

Auto Monthly Volume - May 2024

The domestic 2W industry after witnessing strong double digit growth on a low base, witnessed volume growth of ~10% YoY (down 8% MoM) and export...

Axis Direct

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 49% Turnover; US$850m Trade; Election Results Coming

There could be 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index in June. The potential adds have outpeformed the potential deletes. Results of the...

Brian Freitas

Auto Monthly Volume April 2024

The 2W industry reported strong domestic volume growth of ~31%/19% YoY/MoM and export volume growth of 24% YoY (flat MoM) respectively.

Axis Direct

Fundamental Shorts - SBI Cards | PVR Inox | Escorts Kubota

This Insight highlights fundamental shorts identified in our coverage universe including SBI Cards, Pvr Inox, and Escorts Kubota.

Pranav Bhavsar

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NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes, 42% Turnover, Momentum Recovers After Selloff

There are 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index. Estimated one-way turnover is 42.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 32bn. The adds...

Brian Freitas

Auto Monthly Volume - May 2024

The domestic 2W industry after witnessing strong double digit growth on a low base, witnessed volume growth of ~10% YoY (down 8% MoM) and export...

Axis Direct

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 49% Turnover; US$850m Trade; Election Results Coming

There could be 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index in June. The potential adds have outpeformed the potential deletes. Results of the...

Brian Freitas

Auto Monthly Volume April 2024

The 2W industry reported strong domestic volume growth of ~31%/19% YoY/MoM and export volume growth of 24% YoY (flat MoM) respectively.

Axis Direct

Fundamental Shorts - SBI Cards | PVR Inox | Escorts Kubota

This Insight highlights ​fundamental shorts identified in our coverage universe including SBI Cards, Pvr Inox, and Escorts Kubota.

Pranav Bhavsar

This Insight highlights fundamental shorts identified in our coverage universe including SBI Cards, Pvr Inox, and Escorts Kubota.