Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.65 per share: Drilling rig on location of high impact well by the end of January – A rig is expected to be mobilised to the high impact Welchau-1 drilling location during the last week of January.</li>
<li>The total vertical depth of the well is only 1,800 m with a dry hole cost estimated at ~EUR5.1 mm.</li>
<li>BW Energy (BWE NO): BW Offshore sells interests in BW Energy to BW Group – BW Offshore will sell 58,111,461 (22.52%) shares in BW Energy to BW Group at a price of NOK32 per share, resulting in total proceeds ~US$176 mm.</li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.65 per share: Drilling rig on location of high impact well by the end of January – A rig is expected to be mobilised to the high impact Welchau-1 drilling location during the last week of January.
The total vertical depth of the well is only 1,800 m with a dry hole cost estimated at ~EUR5.1 mm.
BW Energy (BWE NO): BW Offshore sells interests in BW Energy to BW Group – BW Offshore will sell 58,111,461 (22.52%) shares in BW Energy to BW Group at a price of NOK32 per share, resulting in total proceeds ~US$176 mm.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.65 per share: Narrowing uncertainty and resources range at Anshof - The Anshof-2 well encountered high quality Eocene sands with at least 12 metres vertical thickness and porosity of ~20%.</li>
<li>The top of the Eocene sand was encountered ~40-50 m higher than expected, suggesting a much larger and flatter structure than expected in the P50 case.</li>
<li>Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; target price of SEK100 per share: Production update in Oman – WI Production in November was 8,361 bbl/d.</li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.65 per share: Narrowing uncertainty and resources range at Anshof - The Anshof-2 well encountered high quality Eocene sands with at least 12 metres vertical thickness and porosity of ~20%.
The top of the Eocene sand was encountered ~40-50 m higher than expected, suggesting a much larger and flatter structure than expected in the P50 case.
Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; target price of SEK100 per share: Production update in Oman – WI Production in November was 8,361 bbl/d.


<ul>
<li>Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C ; target price of C$0.45 per share: Transactions repriced on more attractive terms – Criterium has renegotiated the terms of the Mont d’Or (MOPL) acquisition.</li>
<li>Criterium will now assume only ~US$25.5 mm of debt rather than ~US$37 mm previously.</li>
<li>A US$4.8 mm payment to the lenders and the conversion of US$4.9 mm of debt into equity (US$2.5 mm on completion of the acquisition plus US$2.4 mm in 2025) reduce further the existing debt to ~US$15.8 mm at closing. </li>
</ul>


Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C ; target price of C$0.45 per share: Transactions repriced on more attractive terms – Criterium has renegotiated the terms of the Mont d’Or (MOPL) acquisition.
Criterium will now assume only ~US$25.5 mm of debt rather than ~US$37 mm previously.
A US$4.8 mm payment to the lenders and the conversion of US$4.9 mm of debt into equity (US$2.5 mm on completion of the acquisition plus US$2.4 mm in 2025) reduce further the existing debt to ~US$15.8 mm at closing. 


<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C ; target price of A$0.08 per share : Completing farm-out transaction in Austria – The farm-out transaction of Anshof to MND has now completed with an initial payment of EUR1.93 mm.</li>
<li>MND has further Anshof development funding obligations of EUR4.683 mm for the drilling, completion and tie-in of the Anshof-2 and Anshof-1 wells as well as payment of further contingent amounts of EUR1.335 mm and EUR3.57 mm (A$ 5.95 million) if the Anshof-2 well meets agreed production performance criteria.</li>
<li>Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C ; target price of £0.55 per share: Good flow rate in the C7 at CN-3 – A 23 ft pay zone (25% porosity) in the Carbonera C7 formation in the CN-3 well has been perforated and put initially on production at a rate of 1,149 bbl/d on pump with a water cut of &lt;0.5%. </li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU)C ; target price of A$0.08 per share : Completing farm-out transaction in Austria – The farm-out transaction of Anshof to MND has now completed with an initial payment of EUR1.93 mm.
MND has further Anshof development funding obligations of EUR4.683 mm for the drilling, completion and tie-in of the Anshof-2 and Anshof-1 wells as well as payment of further contingent amounts of EUR1.335 mm and EUR3.57 mm (A$ 5.95 million) if the Anshof-2 well meets agreed production performance criteria.
Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C ; target price of £0.55 per share: Good flow rate in the C7 at CN-3 – A 23 ft pay zone (25% porosity) in the Carbonera C7 formation in the CN-3 well has been perforated and put initially on production at a rate of 1,149 bbl/d on pump with a water cut of &lt;0.5%. 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.</li>
<li>We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.</li>
</ul>


Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.


Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

Norway

Equinor ASA operates as an energy company. The Company develops oil, gas, wind, and solar energy projects, as well as focuses on offshore operations and exploration services. Equinor serves customers worldwide.

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Equinor (EQNR NO)

Auctus on Friday - 26/01/2024

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.65 per share: Drilling rig on location of high impact well by the end of January

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 15/12/2023

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.65 per share: Narrowing uncertainty and resources range at Anshof - The Anshof-2 well encountered high...

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 29/09/2023

Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C ; target price of C$0.45 per share: Transactions repriced on more attractive terms – Criterium has renegotiated the...

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 22/09/2023

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C ; target price of A$0.08 per share : Completing farm-out transaction in Austria – The farm-out transaction of Anshof to MND...

Auctus Advisors

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

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