Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.</li>
<li>We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.</li>
</ul>


Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.


Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: CN-2 flows at up to 1 mbbl/d.</li>
<li>Focusing on developping the Ubaque at Carrizales Norte - The Carrizales Norte-2 well (CN-2) encountered 60’ of net pay in the Ubaque formation.</li>
<li>Eni (ENI IM): 2Q23 results – 2Q23 adjusted net earnings were Eur1.9 bn with 1,611 mboe/d production.</li>
</ul>


Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: CN-2 flows at up to 1 mbbl/d.
Focusing on developping the Ubaque at Carrizales Norte - The Carrizales Norte-2 well (CN-2) encountered 60’ of net pay in the Ubaque formation.
Eni (ENI IM): 2Q23 results – 2Q23 adjusted net earnings were Eur1.9 bn with 1,611 mboe/d production.


<ul><li>Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; target price of C$0.95 per share: Transformational acquisition in Indonesia – Criterium is delivering on its plans by acquiring Mont D’Or Petroleum with long life and high netback production of 1,050 bbl/d and 4.7 mmbbl 2P reserves across 2 PSCs in Indonesia (Tungkal in South Sumatra and West Salawati in Southwest Papua).</li><li>With important spare capacity in existing infrastructure and very low drilling costs (US 5 mm per well) at Tungkal, Criterium plans to increase production by ~50% by the end of 1Q24 and to ~3 mbbl/d by YE25 within cashflow.</li><li>Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; target price of SEK120 per share: Production update in Oman – Production from Blocks3 &amp; 4 was 8,995 bbl/d in May.</li></ul>

Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; target price of C$0.95 per share: Transformational acquisition in Indonesia – Criterium is delivering on its plans by acquiring Mont D’Or Petroleum with long life and high netback production of 1,050 bbl/d and 4.7 mmbbl 2P reserves across 2 PSCs in Indonesia (Tungkal in South Sumatra and West Salawati in Southwest Papua).With important spare capacity in existing infrastructure and very low drilling costs (US 5 mm per well) at Tungkal, Criterium plans to increase production by ~50% by the end of 1Q24 and to ~3 mbbl/d by YE25 within cashflow.Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; target price of SEK120 per share: Production update in Oman – Production from Blocks3 &amp; 4 was 8,995 bbl/d in May.

Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Frequent readers of our blog posts and research papers likely are well acquainted with our underlying philosophy that commodity prices alone do not provide a compelling rationale for investing in real asset businesses</li>
<li>Instead, as a result of decomposing the returns of individual real assets businesses, we have found that these stocks often exhibit a broader range of return drivers</li>
<li>One such driver is political risk.</li>
</ul>


Frequent readers of our blog posts and research papers likely are well acquainted with our underlying philosophy that commodity prices alone do not provide a compelling rationale for investing in real asset businesses
Instead, as a result of decomposing the returns of individual real assets businesses, we have found that these stocks often exhibit a broader range of return drivers
One such driver is political risk.


Political Risk and Investing: Seeking Opportunity Amidst Disruption

Norway

Equinor ASA operates as an energy company. The Company develops oil, gas, wind, and solar energy projects, as well as focuses on offshore operations and exploration services. Equinor serves customers worldwide.

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Equinor (EQNR NO)

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

Auctus on Friday - 28/07/2023

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: CN-2 flows at up to 1 mbbl/d. Focusing on developping the Ubaque at Carrizales Norte

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 16/06/2023

Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; target price of SEK120 per share: Production update in Oman – Production from Blocks3 & 4 was 8,995 bbl/d in May.

Auctus Advisors

Political Risk and Investing: Seeking Opportunity Amidst Disruption

Frequent readers of our blog posts and research papers likely are well acquainted with our underlying philosophy that commodity prices alone do...

Massif Capital Research

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