High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.</li><li>This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.</li><li>Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.</li></ul>

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.</li>
<li>This still hasn't happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)</li>
<li>If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys</li>
</ul>


We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.
This still hasn't happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)
If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys


Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.</li><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.</li><li>In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.</li></ul>

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Greetings from a rainy and cold Copenhagen.</li><li>Since we haven’t talked about natural gas for a while we will start out here before turning to crude.</li><li>Last week saw Henry Hub making lows last seen during the first wave of Covid in the spring of 2020.</li></ul>

Greetings from a rainy and cold Copenhagen.Since we haven’t talked about natural gas for a while we will start out here before turning to crude.Last week saw Henry Hub making lows last seen during the first wave of Covid in the spring of 2020.

Energy Cable: All the upside left in Henry Hub

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul>
<li>The recent performance of the US economy prompts a reassessment of long-held market sentiments.</li>
<li>As we witness an intersection of sturdy growth, moderating inflation, and evolving liquidity dynamics, investors and policymakers alike stand at a crossroads.</li>
<li>This month’s ‘Macro Regime Indicator’ questions the endurance of the current (US) economic strength and its implications for inflation and asset allocation.</li>
</ul>


The recent performance of the US economy prompts a reassessment of long-held market sentiments.
As we witness an intersection of sturdy growth, moderating inflation, and evolving liquidity dynamics, investors and policymakers alike stand at a crossroads.
This month’s ‘Macro Regime Indicator’ questions the endurance of the current (US) economic strength and its implications for inflation and asset allocation.


Macro Regime Indicator: Time to Embrace a New Economic Dawn?

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

Price Gauge
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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

Fallacy Alarm's Elevator Pitch Party

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate...

Fallacy Alarm

Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Upgrading Materials $XLB to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors $XLE. $SPX and $QQQ holding above gap supports at 4983-5050 and $425...

Vermilion Research

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt...

Steno Research

Energy Cable: All the upside left in Henry Hub

Greetings from a rainy and cold Copenhagen. Since we haven’t talked about natural gas for a while we will start out here before turning to...

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator: Time to Embrace a New Economic Dawn?

The recent performance of the US economy prompts a reassessment of long-held market sentiments. As we witness an intersection of sturdy growth,...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)