Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a> and subsidiary JX Nippon Mining &amp; Metals Corporation announced today it would buy out minorities in miner and refiner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tatsuta-elec-wire-cable" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12509:1" rel="noopener">Tatsuta Elec Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The Tender Offer comes at a 74% premium for their 37% sub. 5% off a 2yr high, 10% off a 20-year high. This is likely to be a "done deal". </li>
<li>JX probably starts with ~55% in the bag out of the 66.7% minimum. But the tender doesn't start for ~ 6 months. Separately, importantly, there is a precedent here.</li>
</ul>



ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) and subsidiary JX Nippon Mining &amp; Metals Corporation announced today it would buy out minorities in miner and refiner Tatsuta Elec Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP). 
The Tender Offer comes at a 74% premium for their 37% sub. 5% off a 2yr high, 10% off a 20-year high. This is likely to be a "done deal". 
JX probably starts with ~55% in the bag out of the 66.7% minimum. But the tender doesn't start for ~ 6 months. Separately, importantly, there is a precedent here.


ENEOS to Buy Out Tatsuta Electric (5809) At 74% Premium

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong, Europe, Germany, and China.</li>
<li>Our preferred Sector overweights continue to be defensives (Utilities, Staples, and Health Care) and commodity Sectors (Energy and Materials).</li>
<li>The secular bull market in commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index, WTI and Brent crude oil, etc.) remains intact, which continues to support our overweight recommendations on the Energy and Materials Sectors.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong, Europe, Germany, and China.
Our preferred Sector overweights continue to be defensives (Utilities, Staples, and Health Care) and commodity Sectors (Energy and Materials).
The secular bull market in commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index, WTI and Brent crude oil, etc.) remains intact, which continues to support our overweight recommendations on the Energy and Materials Sectors.


Still Bearish at the Index Level; Remain Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors

<ul>
<li>There are two days to go until the TOPIX April-end rebalance. </li>
<li>On an average-weighted, sector-neutral basis, the "announcement to event" trade is -0.3% from 7 April to 25 April. The rest of the buy vs sell basket is doing worse.</li>
<li>There should be ¥740bn-ish to buy and sell (each) on Wednesday at the close. If you have trades to execute in Japan, the attached spreadsheet shows where there is opportunity.</li>
</ul>


There are two days to go until the TOPIX April-end rebalance. 
On an average-weighted, sector-neutral basis, the "announcement to event" trade is -0.3% from 7 April to 25 April. The rest of the buy vs sell basket is doing worse.
There should be ¥740bn-ish to buy and sell (each) on Wednesday at the close. If you have trades to execute in Japan, the attached spreadsheet shows where there is opportunity.


<ul>
<li>Four weeks ago, the sovereign wealth fund of the UAE sold out of a 15% position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> they'd held for 15yrs. </li>
<li>Today we see noted Japanese activist Murakami Yoshiaki and affiliates have purchased 5+% of the company, including a large chunk the day after the block trade.</li>
<li>Oftentimes he buys stakes in industries where consolidation is overdue and/or natural. Construction has been one such sector. Refiners probably need consolidation too, but it's not clear it's easy here.</li>
</ul>


Four weeks ago, the sovereign wealth fund of the UAE sold out of a 15% position in Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) they'd held for 15yrs. 
Today we see noted Japanese activist Murakami Yoshiaki and affiliates have purchased 5+% of the company, including a large chunk the day after the block trade.
Oftentimes he buys stakes in industries where consolidation is overdue and/or natural. Construction has been one such sector. Refiners probably need consolidation too, but it's not clear it's easy here.


Activist Murakami-San Goes Substantial on Cosmo Oil (5021)

<ul>
<li>Mubadala bought 20.8% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> in 2007 at ¥5,068/share (split-adjusted). A few months later it dipped below that and hasn't seen that price since. </li>
<li>The sovereign wealth fund sold 5% last year at ¥2,610, and just 7 months later is bailing on the other 15.7% at a 12-17% discount. </li>
<li>Result? Float will rise. Index funds will buy a bit, and active foreign institutional investors will nearly double their holdings.</li>
</ul>


Mubadala bought 20.8% of Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) in 2007 at ¥5,068/share (split-adjusted). A few months later it dipped below that and hasn't seen that price since. 
The sovereign wealth fund sold 5% last year at ¥2,610, and just 7 months later is bailing on the other 15.7% at a 12-17% discount. 
Result? Float will rise. Index funds will buy a bit, and active foreign institutional investors will nearly double their holdings.


Cosmo Oil (5021 JP) Accelerated Block Offering - Big Discount But... 👀

Japan

INPEX CORPORATION is a holding company established through the reorganization of INPEX Corp and Teikoku Oil.  The Company manages subsidiaries that explores, produces, and sells oil and natural gas.

Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd. explores, imports, refines, and distributes petroleum and its related products.  The Company also manufactures and sells petrochemical products.

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, imports, refines, and sells crude oil as well engages in the independent development of oil resources.

Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd. explores, develops, and markets petroleum products such as crude oil and natural gas.

NIPPON GAS CO., LTD. provides LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), gas related apparatus, gas air conditioning equipment, and gas supplying work.  The Company also operates real estate business.

ITOCHU ENEX CO., LTD. distributes various kinds of fuel products such as oil, gasoline, and liquefied petroleum gas.  The Company, affiliated with Itochu Corp, manages many gas stations as well as convenience stores.  Itochu Enex also provides catalog sales of household goods.

MITSUUROKO GROUP HOLDINGS CO., LTD. wholesales a variety of fuel products such as liquefied petroleum gas, coal, and briquettes products.  The Company also sells gas appliances and oil-heating equipment.  MITSUUROKO operates office leasing business as well.

SAN-AI OIL CO., LTD. primarily wholesales petroleum and LP gas nationwide.  The Company also supplies fuels for aircrafts at Haneda Airport.  San-Ai Oil has business divisions including industry energy, gas, chemical and research, and business development.

SALA CORPORATION is a holding company which operates and manages its subsidiaries.  The Company provides energy supply and solution, and facility management services through its subsidiaries.  Other services include infrastructure development, animals' health care, auto services, and logistic business.

SINANEN HOLDINGS CO., LTD. is a fuel distributor specializing in petroleum products. The Company diversifies into briquettes, liquefied petroleum gas, and other petroleum products.  Sinanen also sells cooling/heating equipment and hot water supply system as well as operates real estate businesses.

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited explores for crude oil and natural gas, develops fields for production, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company is a subsidiary of the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation produces and trades petroleum and petrochemical products. The Company offers gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, ethylene, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, synthetic resins, and chemical fertilizers. China Petroleum & Chemical markets its products throughout China.

Santos Limited explores for and produces natural gas, crude oil, condensate, naphtha and liquid petroleum gas.  The Company conducts major onshore and offshore petroleum exploration activities at oil and gas fields in Australia (Cooper/Eromanga Basins), the United States (Gulf of Mexico), Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. The Company also transports crude oil by pipeline.

Origin Energy Limited is an integrated energy company. The Company is an energy retailer in Australia across electricity, gas and LPG. Origin Energy also holds a generation portfolio and fuel position and a renewable energy portfolio, as well as unconventional gas and LNG interests.

APA Corporation operates as an oil and gas company. The Company focuses on exploration and production of oil and gas properties. APA serves clients worldwide.

Marathon Oil Corporation is an independent international energy company engaged in exploration and production, oil sands mining and integrated gas. The Company's operations are focused in North America, Africa and Europe.

EQT Corporation is an integrated energy company with emphasis on Appalachian area natural-gas supply, transmission and distribution. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offer natural gas products to wholesale and retail customers.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil. The Company manufactures petroleum, petroleum products, lubricants, liquefied petroleum gas, aromatics like benzene and toluene, and other related products. Bharat has retail outlets throughout the country.

Chesapeake Energy Corporation produces oil and natural gas. The Company's operations are focused on discovering, developing, and acquiring conventional and unconventional natural gas reserves onshore in the United States.

PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk generates electricity and steam.  The Company owns  and operates coal- and gas-fired plants.

ENEOS Holdings, Inc. operates refining and marketing businesses. The Company refines and distributes petroleum and petroleum chemical products. ENEOS Holdings also provides non ferrous metals, electronic materials, and other products.

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ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)

ENEOS to Buy Out Tatsuta Electric (5809) At 74% Premium

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Murakami-san seems to have bailed on construction names recently and is now in two refiners, having gone substantial on Cosmo Oil (5021) after the...

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Oil (5021 JP) Accelerated Block Offering - Big Discount But... 👀

Mubadala - Abu Dhabi's SWF is selling the remaining 15.7% of Cosmo Energy Holdings it holds in an Accelerated Block Offering for a 12-17% discount....

Travis Lundy

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