Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In mid-January, things between activist Yoshiaki Murakami and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> came to a head. Cosmo announced a large buyback and possible takeover defence measures.</li>
<li>The buyback was a beefy chunk of the float because of the expected profit payout. On 9 February, Cosmo lowered its NP guidance by 40%. FY22 div stays at ¥150/share.</li>
<li>Last Thursday, Cosmo presented its NEW <a href="https://www.cosmo-energy.co.jp/en/about/ir/management/mediumterm/pdf/7thmediumterm.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mid-Term Management Plan</a>. ROE targets similar. Profit targets up. Minimum div goes up; payout ratio goes up. More comes if financial health targets met.</li>
</ul>


In mid-January, things between activist Yoshiaki Murakami and Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) came to a head. Cosmo announced a large buyback and possible takeover defence measures.
The buyback was a beefy chunk of the float because of the expected profit payout. On 9 February, Cosmo lowered its NP guidance by 40%. FY22 div stays at ¥150/share.
Last Thursday, Cosmo presented its NEW Mid-Term Management Plan. ROE targets similar. Profit targets up. Minimum div goes up; payout ratio goes up. More comes if financial health targets met.


<ul>
<li>In March 2022, longtime <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> holder Mubadala sold the last 15.7% of Cosmo Energy in a block sale after having sold 5% 8 months earlier.</li>
<li>A month later it was revealed noted Japanese activist Murakami-san had bought 5.1%. A week later it was 8.3%. Then he bought more. Cosmo announced a buyback in May 2022.</li>
<li>By November Murakami-san had 19.8%. But behind the scenes there had been discussions and those are now coming to light. Cosmo has announced possible defence measures.</li>
</ul>


In March 2022, longtime Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) holder Mubadala sold the last 15.7% of Cosmo Energy in a block sale after having sold 5% 8 months earlier.
A month later it was revealed noted Japanese activist Murakami-san had bought 5.1%. A week later it was 8.3%. Then he bought more. Cosmo announced a buyback in May 2022.
By November Murakami-san had 19.8%. But behind the scenes there had been discussions and those are now coming to light. Cosmo has announced possible defence measures.


Cosmo Energy (5021) Vs Murakami - It's On!

David Blennerhassett

Acotec Scientific Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of December, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was ~46%, giving an average for 2022 of 41%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of December, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was ~46%, giving an average for 2022 of 41%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A 2022 Roundup: Bigtincan, St Barbara/Genesis, Acotec, Conexio, ENEOS, Nidec OKK

<ul>
<li>There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma in the past week. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma in the past week. 
Key updates took place for: OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU), Warrego Energy (WGO AU), Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), and Toyo Construction (1890 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: OZ Minerals, Warrego, Shandong Fengxiang, Toyo Construction

<ul>
<li>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals (OZL AU)</a>,  look elsewhere unless you are VERY bullish copper. But if you are VERY bullish copper, buy copper options rather than the embedded option in OZL. </li>
<li>Game on as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a> shareholders weigh the pros and cons of Hancock's all-cash Offer against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>'s "superior" scrip proposal. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> succumbed to greenmail and tried to boost the price to explain the exit they were going to give Murakami-san. It didn't work. </li>
</ul>


For OZ Minerals (OZL AU),  look elsewhere unless you are VERY bullish copper. But if you are VERY bullish copper, buy copper options rather than the embedded option in OZL. 
Game on as Warrego Energy (WGO AU) shareholders weigh the pros and cons of Hancock's all-cash Offer against Strike Energy (STX AU)'s "superior" scrip proposal. 

Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) succumbed to greenmail and tried to boost the price to explain the exit they were going to give Murakami-san. It didn't work. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Oz Minerals, Warrego, JAFCO, Swire Pac's A&Bs, Korean Mandatory Offers

Japan

ENEOS Holdings, Inc. operates refining and marketing businesses. The Company refines and distributes petroleum and petroleum chemical products. ENEOS Holdings also provides non ferrous metals, electronic materials, and other products.

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ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)

Cosmo Energy (5021) - It's Even More On

Cosmo Energy has released a new Medium-Term Management Plan, upping the minimum dividend (from ¥150/share to ¥200/share) and the target Shareholder...

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Energy (5021) Vs Murakami - It's On!

Cosmo Energy has finally had enough of Murakami-san's behind-the-scenes threats and has launched a poison pill structure/plan. Murakami-san has...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia M&A 2022 Roundup: Bigtincan, St Barbara/Genesis, Acotec, Conexio, ENEOS, Nidec OKK

For the month of December, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: OZ Minerals, Warrego, Shandong Fengxiang, Toyo Construction

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Oz Minerals, Warrego, JAFCO, Swire Pac's A&Bs, Korean Mandatory Offers

The silly season is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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