Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>8 days ago I wrote Murakami-san upped his stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a> to 23.5%, could buy more into earnings, and earnings could deliver a buyback. That was ¥3495/3600.</li>
<li>He bought more, reported 24.72% as of 22-Oct). I bet he reports more in a week. Also, Exedy today reported a small yoy gain in H1 revenue. OP+76%yoy. NP+17%yoy.</li>
<li>The company also reported a BIG div hike to ¥200/yr and a giant ¥30bn buyback. Activists and Murakami hangers-on have won. So watch out! The playbook is different than expected.</li>
</ul>


8 days ago I wrote Murakami-san upped his stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP) to 23.5%, could buy more into earnings, and earnings could deliver a buyback. That was ¥3495/3600.
He bought more, reported 24.72% as of 22-Oct). I bet he reports more in a week. Also, Exedy today reported a small yoy gain in H1 revenue. OP+76%yoy. NP+17%yoy.
The company also reported a BIG div hike to ¥200/yr and a giant ¥30bn buyback. Activists and Murakami hangers-on have won. So watch out! The playbook is different than expected.


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Exedy (7278) - You Won, BIG Capital Payout, Murakami Up. Now Watch Out!

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs higher feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Lower prices of light-grade base oils relative to heavy-neutrals leave those supplies more exposed to impact of higher feedstock costs at a time when demand faces seasonal rise.</li><li>FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs Singapore gasoil.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs higher feedstock/competing fuel prices.Lower prices of light-grade base oils relative to heavy-neutrals leave those supplies more exposed to impact of higher feedstock costs at a time when demand faces seasonal rise.FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs Singapore gasoil.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 24 March

<ul><li>Europe’s Group II base oils prices rise vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.</li><li>Europe’s Group I brightstock price rises vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.</li><li>Outperformance of Europe base oils prices vs prices in US and Asia points to firmer supply-demand fundamentals in Europe than in those other markets.</li></ul>

Europe’s Group II base oils prices rise vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.Europe’s Group I brightstock price rises vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025.Outperformance of Europe base oils prices vs prices in US and Asia points to firmer supply-demand fundamentals in Europe than in those other markets.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 24 March

<ul><li>Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices stay high versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>High margins point to tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.</li><li>Light-grade base oils prices stay low vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, cutting incentive for refiners to raise output.</li></ul>

Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices stay high versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.High margins point to tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.Light-grade base oils prices stay low vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, cutting incentive for refiners to raise output.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 24 March

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand could hold steady even with high heavy-grade prices and seasonal slowdown in consumption at start of Q2 2025.</li><li>Asia’s lube demand likely to peak in month of March, before holding at lower levels over following months.</li><li>Lube demand in Q2 2025 likely to remain well above levels in Q1 2025 even with slowdown at start of Q2 2025.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand could hold steady even with high heavy-grade prices and seasonal slowdown in consumption at start of Q2 2025.Asia’s lube demand likely to peak in month of March, before holding at lower levels over following months.Lube demand in Q2 2025 likely to remain well above levels in Q1 2025 even with slowdown at start of Q2 2025.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 24 March

Japan

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, imports, refines, and sells crude oil as well engages in the independent development of oil resources.

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Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Exedy (7278) - You Won, BIG Capital Payout, Murakami Up. Now Watch Out!

Exedy (7278) Earnings were OK/decent. Murakami-san has gone to 24.7%. We have a sharply higher dividend payout and policy, and a HUGE buyback....

Travis Lundy

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 24 March

Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs higher feedstock/competing fuel prices. Lower prices of light-grade base oils relative to heavy-neutrals...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 24 March

Europe’s Group II base oils prices rise vs prices in US and Asia in March 2025. Europe’s Group I brightstock price rises vs prices in US and Asia...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 24 March

Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices stay high versus feedstock/competing fuel prices. High margins point to tight supply-demand fundamentals,...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 24 March

Asia’s base oils demand could hold steady even with high heavy-grade prices and seasonal slowdown in consumption at start of Q2 2025. Asia’s lube...

Base Oil News

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