Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Short duration US factor strategies outperformed in September as markets came under pressure (value and dividend yield).</li>
<li>Despite keeping rates unchanged on the 20th of September at 5.5% (upper bound), Fed Chair Powell indicated that rates would be kept higher for longer than initially anticipated.</li>
<li>In this note we explore the relative performance of US factor strategies through different interest rate cycles, to inform timing around factor/style rotation.</li>
</ul>


Short duration US factor strategies outperformed in September as markets came under pressure (value and dividend yield).
Despite keeping rates unchanged on the 20th of September at 5.5% (upper bound), Fed Chair Powell indicated that rates would be kept higher for longer than initially anticipated.
In this note we explore the relative performance of US factor strategies through different interest rate cycles, to inform timing around factor/style rotation.


US Factor Strategies: Value and Dividend Yield Outperform in September, Higher for Longer Narrative

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Hollysys Automation Technologies / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Dazheng (without Recco) has returned with <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231224144642/en/Buyer-Consortium-Led-by-Dazheng-Group-Announces-Enhanced-All-Cash-Proposal-of-US29.00-Per-Share-to-Acquire-Hollysys" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a revised US$29.00 offer</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, 9.4% higher than Ascendent Capital’s US$26.50 binding offer.</li>
<li>While Dazheng’s proposal represents an all-time high, it would likely not be a superior proposal based on the Ascendent merger agreement due to the clauses on financing and due diligence.</li>
<li>Nevertheless, to avoid the high risk that shareholders vote down the Ascendent offer and/or there are substantial dissenting shareholders, the Board will likely ask Ascendent to match Dazheng's offer.  </li>
</ul>


Dazheng (without Recco) has returned with a revised US$29.00 offer for Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), 9.4% higher than Ascendent Capital’s US$26.50 binding offer.
While Dazheng’s proposal represents an all-time high, it would likely not be a superior proposal based on the Ascendent merger agreement due to the clauses on financing and due diligence.
Nevertheless, to avoid the high risk that shareholders vote down the Ascendent offer and/or there are substantial dissenting shareholders, the Board will likely ask Ascendent to match Dazheng's offer.  


Hollysys (HOLI US): Dazheng Ups the Ante with a US$29.00 Competing Offer

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg reports that the Recco consortium is considering “a significantly higher” <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a> offer than Ascendent’s US$26.50 binding offer.</li>
<li>The Hollysys 6-K filling outlines the closing conditions - a simple majority YES vote, regulatory approvals, minimum net cash (waivable) and a 10% maximum dissent condition (waivable).  </li>
<li>Recco is a committed suitor and will not easily give up. The merger agreement clauses point to a Recco offer floor of US$27.03 and a ceiling of US$30.48.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that the Recco consortium is considering “a significantly higher” Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) offer than Ascendent’s US$26.50 binding offer.
The Hollysys 6-K filling outlines the closing conditions - a simple majority YES vote, regulatory approvals, minimum net cash (waivable) and a 10% maximum dissent condition (waivable).  
Recco is a committed suitor and will not easily give up. The merger agreement clauses point to a Recco offer floor of US$27.03 and a ceiling of US$30.48.


Hollysys (HOLI US): Merger Agreement Leaves the Door Ajar for a Higher Recco Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a> has agreed to be acquired by Ascendent Capital, the largest shareholder, for US$26.50, a 16.7% premium to the last close.   </li>
<li>The Board's claims of realising the highest shareholder value are not credible. The Board fails to explain why Ascendent’s offer is superior to Recco’s, although both have the same value.</li>
<li>Deal fatigue (the process first started in December 2020) and the 42% premium to the undisturbed price suggests meeting the simple majority threshold for a statutory merger is achievable.</li>
</ul>



Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) has agreed to be acquired by Ascendent Capital, the largest shareholder, for US$26.50, a 16.7% premium to the last close.   
The Board's claims of realising the highest shareholder value are not credible. The Board fails to explain why Ascendent’s offer is superior to Recco’s, although both have the same value.
Deal fatigue (the process first started in December 2020) and the 42% premium to the undisturbed price suggests meeting the simple majority threshold for a statutory merger is achievable.


Hollysys (HOLI US): Questionable Process Results in Ascendent’s Winning US$26.50 Bid

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a> Board has finally succumbed to shareholder pressure by targeting a special meeting of shareholders in the week commencing 22 January 2024.</li>
<li>The special meeting is a side event as the Board targets a binding proposal by mid-December, with some bidders proceeding to the confirmatory due diligence stage.</li>
<li>The BVI takeover structure and Hollysys’ undemanding valuation facilitate a competitive bidding process. A 10% uplift to the current highest offer (Recco’s US$26.50 offer) is possible.</li>
</ul>


The Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) Board has finally succumbed to shareholder pressure by targeting a special meeting of shareholders in the week commencing 22 January 2024.
The special meeting is a side event as the Board targets a binding proposal by mid-December, with some bidders proceeding to the confirmatory due diligence stage.
The BVI takeover structure and Hollysys’ undemanding valuation facilitate a competitive bidding process. A 10% uplift to the current highest offer (Recco’s US$26.50 offer) is possible.


Hollysys (HOLI US): Progress as a Binding Proposal Targeted for Mid-December

United States

Emerson Electric Co. designs and manufactures electronic and electrical equipment, software, systems and services for industrial, commercial and consumer markets worldwide through its network power, process management, industrial automation, climate technologies and commercial & residential solutions divisions.

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Emerson Electric Co (EMR US)

US Factor Strategies: Value and Dividend Yield Outperform in September, Higher for Longer Narrative

US rates and factor strategies: higher for longer likely to drive outperformance of short duration factor strategies, long US value short US growth.

DMA

Hollysys (HOLI US): Dazheng Ups the Ante with a US$29.00 Competing Offer

While higher, the Board has the basis not to deem Dazheng’s proposal superior. However, due to the risk that shareholders vote down its offer,...

Arun George

Hollysys (HOLI US): Merger Agreement Leaves the Door Ajar for a Higher Recco Offer

Bloomberg reports that the Recco consortium is considering “a significantly higher” offer. The merger agreement clauses point to a Recco offer...

Arun George

Hollysys (HOLI US): Questionable Process Results in Ascendent’s Winning US$26.50 Bid

Despite a dubious sales process, deal fatigue and the 42% premium to the undisturbed price should help get the vote up. At the last close, the...

Arun George

Hollysys (HOLI US): Progress as a Binding Proposal Targeted for Mid-December

An SEC filing on Friday disclosed that Ascendent Capital (13.7% shareholder) entered a confidentiality agreement with Hollysys, which includes a...

Arun George

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