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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><ul><li>Two-wheeler demand trends: A consistent feedback that we received from most of the dealers is that 2W demand is picking up QoQ in Q1, although, it is still well below pre-COVID levels</li><li>Segmental trends: While 2W demand is seeing an uptick QoQ in Q1, the sense we got is that motorcycle demand is stronger than scooters</li><li>Player-wise performance trends: As per our dealer feedback, Hero MotoCorp is doing better than peers</li></ul></div>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Two-wheeler demand trends: A consistent feedback that we received from most of the dealers is that 2W demand is picking up QoQ in Q1, although, it is still well below pre-COVID levelsSegmental trends: While 2W demand is seeing an uptick QoQ in Q1, the sense we got is that motorcycle demand is stronger than scootersPlayer-wise performance trends: As per our dealer feedback, Hero MotoCorp is doing better than peersContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Autos - Two Wheelers: Some Green-Shoots Visible

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Infrastructure and E-commerce are core drivers of the MHCV recovery </li>
<li>The market for Retail fleet operators (1-5 trucks) has shrunk. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a> 's market share gain has been on the back of discounting and is unlikely to sustain. </li>
</ul>


Infrastructure and E-commerce are core drivers of the MHCV recovery 
The market for Retail fleet operators (1-5 trucks) has shrunk. 

Ashok Leyland (AL IN) 's market share gain has been on the back of discounting and is unlikely to sustain. 


India Channel Insight #38 | Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors (MHCV)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)'s </a>market share gains in the premium segment can further accelerate in case of easing supply issues and rural recovery. </li>
<li>While EV may not materially move the volumes in the near term, the ramp-up of the newly launched TVS iQube (EV) will determine the sentiment around the stock. </li>
<li>The sector view is positive, but current valuations are not lucrative enough to ignore capital allocation issues that have been a concern for TVSL. </li>
</ul>



TVS Motor (TVSL IN)'s market share gains in the premium segment can further accelerate in case of easing supply issues and rural recovery. 
While EV may not materially move the volumes in the near term, the ramp-up of the newly launched TVS iQube (EV) will determine the sentiment around the stock. 
The sector view is positive, but current valuations are not lucrative enough to ignore capital allocation issues that have been a concern for TVSL. 


TVS Motor (TVSL IN) | Supply Issues & EV Ramp Up the Key

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> is well-positioned to offset margin pressures due to its aspirational brand, the success of its new models and exports. </li>
<li>Easing supply issues along with newer export markets provide a compelling runway for revenue growth. </li>
<li>While our estimates are in line with consensus,  we believe the YTD outperformance is likely to continue and any opportunities presented amidst market volatility must be exploited. </li>
</ul>



Eicher Motors (EIM IN) is well-positioned to offset margin pressures due to its aspirational brand, the success of its new models and exports. 
Easing supply issues along with newer export markets provide a compelling runway for revenue growth. 
While our estimates are in line with consensus,  we believe the YTD outperformance is likely to continue and any opportunities presented amidst market volatility must be exploited. 


Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | The "Twins" (New Models & Exports) Are Firing

<ul>
<li>We speak to channels across West, North and South to understand the 2W demand environment </li>
<li>Mid segment is still not seeing recovery, premium and lower end segment is stabilising / doing relatively better. </li>
<li>Restoration of supplies and aggressive marketing strategies can aid volume recovery for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


We speak to channels across West, North and South to understand the 2W demand environment 
Mid segment is still not seeing recovery, premium and lower end segment is stabilising / doing relatively better. 
Restoration of supplies and aggressive marketing strategies can aid volume recovery for TVS Motor (TVSL IN) and Eicher Motors (EIM IN) 


India Channel Insight #34 | Eicher (Royal Enfield), TVS Motors, Hero MotoCorp

India

Eicher Motors Ltd. manufactures light commercial vehicles which are sold domestically and are also exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures two-wheelers and automotive gears.

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Eicher Motors (EIM IN)

Autos - Two Wheelers: Some Green-Shoots Visible

We interacted with 22 two-wheeler (2W) dealers’ pan-India to get a sense of demand trends in June. One common feedback we got is that 2W demand is...

HDFC Securities

India Channel Insight #38 | Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors (MHCV)

We speak to channels across the west and north of India to understand the current pace of recovery and competitive dynamics between Ashok Leyland...

Pranav Bhavsar

TVS Motor (TVSL IN) | Supply Issues & EV Ramp Up the Key

With expected easing in supplies & EV ramp up, volumes can accelerate, however at current valuations, capital allocation issues are tough to...

Pranav Bhavsar