Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Several catalysts on the horizon support the case for a re-rating of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a>. </li>
<li>The recent launch of the 450cc platform is positioned as a significant launch pad, propelling EIM's aspirations to establish global leadership in the middleweight segment.</li>
<li>We anticipate EIM to deliver higher-than-anticipated revenue growth with the possibility of a multiple re-rating for the company.</li>
</ul>


Several catalysts on the horizon support the case for a re-rating of Eicher Motors (EIM IN). 
The recent launch of the 450cc platform is positioned as a significant launch pad, propelling EIM's aspirations to establish global leadership in the middleweight segment.
We anticipate EIM to deliver higher-than-anticipated revenue growth with the possibility of a multiple re-rating for the company.


2024 High Conviction | Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | Himalayan Ambitions

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a>  &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harley-davidson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4386:1" rel="noopener">Harley Davidson (HOG US)</a> launched their collaborative creation, the Harley-Davidson X440, in India.</li>
<li>While this is a step in the right and anticipated direction, there are potentially grave mistakes that need to be corrected.</li>
<li>For HOG, there is more to lose than to gain from this development. Additionally, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> moat around the brand and a strong riding culture is likely underrated.</li>
</ul>



Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)  &amp; Harley Davidson (HOG US) launched their collaborative creation, the Harley-Davidson X440, in India.
While this is a step in the right and anticipated direction, there are potentially grave mistakes that need to be corrected.
For HOG, there is more to lose than to gain from this development. Additionally, Eicher Motors (EIM IN) moat around the brand and a strong riding culture is likely underrated.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-stock-exchange" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23751:1" rel="noopener">National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN)</a> has announced a list of 45 stocks that will be added to the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market from 29 November.</li>
<li>There will be changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index</a> and the CNXIT Index over the next couple of rebalances.</li>
<li>There are some interesting situations out there, including a change to the universe for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> that could lead to more changes. </li>
</ul>


The National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) has announced a list of 45 stocks that will be added to the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market from 29 November.
There will be changes to the NIFTY Index, NSE Nifty Next 50 Index, S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index and the CNXIT Index over the next couple of rebalances.
There are some interesting situations out there, including a change to the universe for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) that could lead to more changes. 


INDIA: Index Changes Due to the 45 New Additions to the F&O Segment

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices in the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>The recently-listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN)</a> could see some index inflows during the March 2025 rebal. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial (JIOFIN IN)</a> could also get involved.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices in the March 2025 index rebal event.
The recently-listed Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN) could see some index inflows during the March 2025 rebal. Zomato (ZOMATO IN) and Jio Financial (JIOFIN IN) could also get involved.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Thoughts on Hyundai Motor, Zomato, and Jiofin

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor (005380 KS)</a> raised INR 279bn (US$3.3bn) by selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN)</a>, valuing Hyundai India at INR 1,593bn (US$18.95bn).</li>
<li>The anchor investor book was fully subscribed. The non-institutional and retail books were undersubscribed, so institutions got more stock. And that changes the free float estimates for one global index.</li>
<li>Even with the higher float, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN)</a> is unlikely to get Fast Entry to one global index later this month. Index inclusions should commence in February 2025.</li>
</ul>



Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) raised INR 279bn (US$3.3bn) by selling some of its stake in Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN), valuing Hyundai India at INR 1,593bn (US$18.95bn).
The anchor investor book was fully subscribed. The non-institutional and retail books were undersubscribed, so institutions got more stock. And that changes the free float estimates for one global index.
Even with the higher float, Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN) is unlikely to get Fast Entry to one global index later this month. Index inclusions should commence in February 2025.


Hyundai Motor India IPO: How Far to Fast Entry?

India

Eicher Motors Ltd. manufactures light commercial vehicles which are sold domestically and are also exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures two-wheelers and automotive gears.

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Eicher Motors (EIM IN)

2024 High Conviction | Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | Himalayan Ambitions

Eicher Motors (EIM IN) has several catalysts on the horizon that could lead to a re-rating, including the launch of a new platform and potential...

Pranav Bhavsar

Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | The "HOG" Wash

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL IN) & Harley-Davidson (HOG US) launched the Harley-Davidson X440 in India. Though a step in the right direction, there are...

Pranav Bhavsar

INDIA: Index Changes Due to the 45 New Additions to the F&O Segment

NSE has announced 45 new stocks will be added to F&O on 29 November. That leads to a lot of change for indices that have F&O membership as a...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Thoughts on Hyundai Motor, Zomato, and Jiofin

There are no changes for NIFTY 50 but there could be five changes for NIFTY Next 50 according to current rankings. Only 54% of the reference period...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Hyundai Motor India IPO: How Far to Fast Entry?

Hyundai India sold shares worth US$3.3bn in its IPO valuing the company at US$19bn. Grey market indicates a 3-5% higher opening today. Fast Entry...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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2024 High Conviction | Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | Himalayan Ambitions

​Eicher Motors (EIM IN) has several catalysts on the horizon that could lead to a re-rating, including the launch of a new platform and potential...

Pranav Bhavsar

Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | The "HOG" Wash

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL IN) & Harley-Davidson (HOG US) launched the Harley-Davidson X440 in India. Though a step in the right direction, there are...

Pranav Bhavsar

INDIA: Index Changes Due to the 45 New Additions to the F&O Segment

NSE has announced 45 new stocks will be added to F&O on 29 November. That leads to a lot of change for indices that have F&O membership as a...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: Thoughts on Hyundai Motor, Zomato, and Jiofin

There are no changes for NIFTY 50 but there could be five changes for NIFTY Next 50 according to current rankings. Only 54% of the reference period...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Hyundai Motor India IPO: How Far to Fast Entry?

Hyundai India sold shares worth US$3.3bn in its IPO valuing the company at US$19bn. Grey market indicates a 3-5% higher opening today. Fast Entry...

Brian Freitas

Eicher Motors (EIM IN) has several catalysts on the horizon that could lead to a re-rating, including the launch of a new platform and potential...