European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The deal is done with the transfer of Edizione's 50.3% stake in Autogrill under way, and with  all main hurdles cleared. Dufry must launch and offer to buy out minorities. </li>
<li>Autogrill shares closed at €6.698 on 30 January, also the implied value of the 0.158 Autogrill/Dufry share swap is 5.8% above the €6.33/share "initial" cash offer. The market expects more.</li>
<li>The deal will not fall through but the price is still being negotiated, possibly around €6.8-6.9/share. The issue will now become what dilution/leverage will Dufry's patient shareholders endure.</li>
</ul>


The deal is done with the transfer of Edizione's 50.3% stake in Autogrill under way, and with  all main hurdles cleared. Dufry must launch and offer to buy out minorities. 
Autogrill shares closed at €6.698 on 30 January, also the implied value of the 0.158 Autogrill/Dufry share swap is 5.8% above the €6.33/share "initial" cash offer. The market expects more.
The deal will not fall through but the price is still being negotiated, possibly around €6.8-6.9/share. The issue will now become what dilution/leverage will Dufry's patient shareholders endure.


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Tourism Group Duty Free / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the near-term, China's relaxation of COVID-combating measures will boost consumption and demand for cross-province travel. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK)</a> is a beneficiary.</li>
<li>Hotel bookings in Sanya have surged over the last two days, reflecting positive demand reaction. However, China's full border opening likely in 2023 is a challenge to CDFC.  </li>
<li>Low base in FY22 will drive 45% earnings growth for FY23. However, valuations are not cheap at 33.8x PER for FY23, a significant premium to consumption sector and international peers.</li>
</ul>


In the near-term, China's relaxation of COVID-combating measures will boost consumption and demand for cross-province travel. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK) is a beneficiary.
Hotel bookings in Sanya have surged over the last two days, reflecting positive demand reaction. However, China's full border opening likely in 2023 is a challenge to CDFC.  
Low base in FY22 will drive 45% earnings growth for FY23. However, valuations are not cheap at 33.8x PER for FY23, a significant premium to consumption sector and international peers.


CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Near-Term Positive but It Is Not Cheap at All

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

China Tourism Group Duty Free / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK)</a>/CTGDF priced its H Share at HK$158.00 per share to raise net proceeds of US$2.0 billion. The H Share starts trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>The H Share listing price implies an AH discount of 27.2% at A Share price of RMB189.80. This compares to an average AH discount of 46.6% of listed AH shares.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> A Shares are trading close to fair value. The H Shares valuation is unattractive compared to peers. </li>
</ul>



China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK)/CTGDF priced its H Share at HK$158.00 per share to raise net proceeds of US$2.0 billion. The H Share starts trading tomorrow.
The H Share listing price implies an AH discount of 27.2% at A Share price of RMB189.80. This compares to an average AH discount of 46.6% of listed AH shares.
The China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) A Shares are trading close to fair value. The H Shares valuation is unattractive compared to peers. 


CTG Duty Free H Share Listing: Trading Debut

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) raised around US$2.4bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong, after pricing its IPO at HKD158/share.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal pricing and the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) raised around US$2.4bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong, after pricing its IPO at HKD158/share.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.
In this note, we talk about the deal pricing and the trading dynamics.


China Tourism Group A/H Trading - Decent Support from Long-Only but Minimal Retail Participation

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>CTG Duty Free Group has filed for a HKEx listing and plans to raise net proceeds of US$1.98bn at the midpoint of the IPO price range of HK$143.5-165.5 per share.</li>
<li>The company’s indicative IPO price range is at a 27-37% discount to the company's last close of RMB194.75 per share.</li>
<li>In this insight, we discuss our key concerns on CTG’s financials and our thoughts on the company’s valuation.</li>
</ul>


CTG Duty Free Group has filed for a HKEx listing and plans to raise net proceeds of US$1.98bn at the midpoint of the IPO price range of HK$143.5-165.5 per share.
The company’s indicative IPO price range is at a 27-37% discount to the company's last close of RMB194.75 per share.
In this insight, we discuss our key concerns on CTG’s financials and our thoughts on the company’s valuation.


CTG Duty Free H-Share Listing: Not Even Attractive at the Lower End

Switzerland

Dufry AG operates duty-free shops in countries such as Tunisia, Italy, Mexico, France, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, the Caribbean and the United States.

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Dufry AG (DUFN SW)

Dufry/Autogrill: Deal Progress

The merger is proceeding according to plan with all main hurdles cleared. Edizione and Dufry expect to close the transfer of Edizione's 50.3% stake...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Near-Term Positive but It Is Not Cheap at All

China's relaxation of COVID control will bring better near-term outlook, as reflected by surge in Sanya's hotel bookings. There are still...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism Group A/H Trading - Decent Support from Long-Only but Minimal Retail Participation

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) raised around US$2.4bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong, after pricing its IPO at HKD158...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Dufry/Autogrill: Deal Progress

The merger is proceeding according to plan with all main hurdles cleared. Edizione and Dufry expect to close the transfer of Edizione's 50.3% stake...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Near-Term Positive but It Is Not Cheap at All

China's relaxation of COVID control will bring better near-term outlook, as reflected by surge in Sanya's hotel bookings. There are still...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CTG Duty Free H Share Listing: Trading Debut

The H Share listing price implies an AH discount of 27.2% at the last close A Share price of RMB189.80. The AH discount and H Shares valuation are...

Arun George

China Tourism Group A/H Trading - Decent Support from Long-Only but Minimal Retail Participation

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) raised around US$2.4bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong, after pricing its IPO at HKD158...

Sumeet Singh

CTG Duty Free H-Share Listing: Not Even Attractive at the Lower End

Though CTG's HKEx IPO is priced at a significant discount to A-share, there is further downside to the lower end of the IPO price range. We expect...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA