Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The December 2022 index changes for the STOXX Benchmark Indices were announced yesterday. </li>
<li>There will be 6 ADDs and 6 DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 Index and 3 ADDs and 1 DEL for the EURO STOXX Index in December 2022.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a closer look at the index flow expectations and the historical performance of STOXX Europe 600 and EURO STOXX Rebalance events.</li>
</ul>


The December 2022 index changes for the STOXX Benchmark Indices were announced yesterday. 
There will be 6 ADDs and 6 DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 Index and 3 ADDs and 1 DEL for the EURO STOXX Index in December 2022.
In this insight, we take a closer look at the index flow expectations and the historical performance of STOXX Europe 600 and EURO STOXX Rebalance events.


STOXX Europe 600 Dec 22 Rebal: Final Changes and Historical Performance Analysis

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Including the addition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-ing-h-c-f-porsche-aktiengesellschaft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36343:1" rel="noopener">Porsche AG (P911 GR)</a>, there could be around 7 ADDs/DELs during the December 2022 Rebalance. </li>
<li>In addition, there could be as many as <em>five</em> more intra-review changes before the end of the year.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.
Including the addition of Porsche AG (P911 GR), there could be around 7 ADDs/DELs during the December 2022 Rebalance. 
In addition, there could be as many as five more intra-review changes before the end of the year.


STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: ~7 Regular ADDs/DELs & ~5 Intra-Review ADDs/DELs Possible

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.</li>
<li>Roughly half of the 20-trading day reference period for the December 2022 Rebalance is now complete.</li>
<li>Among the names identified as potential index changes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washtec-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36483:1" rel="noopener">Washtec (WSU GR)</a> appears to be a very high impact name with around 50+ days of volume to buy.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.
Roughly half of the 20-trading day reference period for the December 2022 Rebalance is now complete.
Among the names identified as potential index changes, Washtec (WSU GR) appears to be a very high impact name with around 50+ days of volume to buy.


DAX/​​​​​MDAX/​​​​​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Washtec Is a High-Impact Name

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly tightened during October in line with the market recovery. </li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (31 October): C.F.Alba, 48.7%; GBL, 34.4%; Heineken Holding, 18.3%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 16.8%; Porsche Automobile Holding 41.8%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.4%.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly tightened during October in line with the market recovery. 
Discounts to NAV (31 October): C.F.Alba, 48.7%; GBL, 34.4%; Heineken Holding, 18.3%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 16.8%; Porsche Automobile Holding 41.8%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.4%.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: October ‘22 Report

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I expect at least two STOXX Europe 600 constituents involved in M&amp;A deals to get deleted in November 2022. There could be more in December 2022.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-ing-h-c-f-porsche-aktiengesellschaft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36343:1" rel="noopener">Porsche AG (P911 GR)</a> is currently the highest ranked non-constituent and is leading the race to become an intra-review add in November 2022.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.
I expect at least two STOXX Europe 600 constituents involved in M&amp;A deals to get deleted in November 2022. There could be more in December 2022.

Porsche AG (P911 GR) is currently the highest ranked non-constituent and is leading the race to become an intra-review add in November 2022.


STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Two Intra-Review Changes & Porsche Addition Likely In Nov

Germany

Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche Aktiengesellschaft manufactures passenger vehicles. The Company offers sports cars, SUVs, and other motor vehicles, as well as provides finance services. Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche serves customers worldwide.

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Dr Ing hc F Porsche (P911 GR)

STOXX Europe 600 Dec 22 Rebal: Final Changes and Historical Performance Analysis

Historically, the ADDs have failed to outperform the index from the Announcement Date to the Inclusion Event. However, the DELs have clearly...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: ~7 Regular ADDs/DELs & ~5 Intra-Review ADDs/DELs Possible

I expect the top ranked Potential ADDs to outperform the top ranked Potential DELs until the official Rebalance results are confirmed at the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Washtec Is a High-Impact Name

There could be 50+ days of volume to buy in Washtec which is a potential SDAX ADD in December 2022. Roughly half of the reference period is now...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: October ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly tightened during October as a result of market recovery. Short-term recoveries provide...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Two Intra-Review Changes & Porsche Addition Likely In Nov

Between now and the end of the year, there could up to 14 constituent changes in the STOXX Europe 600 index including 5 intra review changes....

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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STOXX Europe 600 Dec 22 Rebal: Final Changes and Historical Performance Analysis

Historically, the ADDs have failed to outperform the index from the Announcement Date to the Inclusion Event. However, the DELs have clearly...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: ~7 Regular ADDs/DELs & ~5 Intra-Review ADDs/DELs Possible

I expect the top ranked Potential ADDs to outperform the top ranked Potential DELs until the official Rebalance results are confirmed at the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

DAX/​​​​​MDAX/​​​​​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Washtec Is a High-Impact Name

There could be 50+ days of volume to buy in Washtec which is a potential SDAX ADD in December 2022. Roughly half of the reference period is now...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: October ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly tightened during October as a result of market recovery. Short-term recoveries provide...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Two Intra-Review Changes & Porsche Addition Likely In Nov

Between now and the end of the year, there could up to 14 constituent changes in the STOXX Europe 600 index including 5 intra review changes....

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Washtec Is a High-Impact Name