Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last week we had the implementation of the first two tranches of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> rebalance with the third tranche to be implemented at the close on Monday.</li>
<li>Thursday saw the NIFTY indices implementation while Friday marked the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices.</li>
<li>There were large inflows to China, Taiwan, Korea and Hong Kong ETFs during the week while there were some outflows from Japan.</li>
</ul>


Last week we had the implementation of the first two tranches of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rebalance with the third tranche to be implemented at the close on Monday.
Thursday saw the NIFTY indices implementation while Friday marked the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices.
There were large inflows to China, Taiwan, Korea and Hong Kong ETFs during the week while there were some outflows from Japan.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, China A50, SET50, Bilibili, Leapmotor, Onewo, CALB

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Volkswagen bags €9.8 bn for its EV, the Porsches &amp; Pïechs have again (some) direct control over Porsche AG and there'll be a c.€19.05 extraordinary dividend for Volkswagen's shareholders. </li>
<li>A €75 billion valuation implies 7.7x EV/2023e EBITDA and 13.9x Fwd 2023e P/E, a discount to Ferrari's 19.3x EV/2023 EBITDA of 20.2x and 32.3x Fwd 2023e P/E. </li>
<li>The shares have potential to race towards Ferrari's multiples. Also, in the medium term, the discount to NAV of Porsche SE (currently 34.2%) should tighten.</li>
</ul>


Volkswagen bags €9.8 bn for its EV, the Porsches &amp; Pïechs have again (some) direct control over Porsche AG and there'll be a c.€19.05 extraordinary dividend for Volkswagen's shareholders. 
A €75 billion valuation implies 7.7x EV/2023e EBITDA and 13.9x Fwd 2023e P/E, a discount to Ferrari's 19.3x EV/2023 EBITDA of 20.2x and 32.3x Fwd 2023e P/E. 
The shares have potential to race towards Ferrari's multiples. Also, in the medium term, the discount to NAV of Porsche SE (currently 34.2%) should tighten.


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>WCP starts trading on its IPO tomorrow (30 September) in Korea. Even at the lower share price of 60,000 won, we continue to have a Negative View of WCP. </li>
<li>We have updated our valuation on WCP taking into account the latest prices and valuation multiples of the comps as of 29 September. </li>
<li>Our base case valuation of WCP is market cap of 1.8 trillion won or target price of 51,973 won, which is 13% lower than the IPO price of 60,000 won.</li>
</ul>


WCP starts trading on its IPO tomorrow (30 September) in Korea. Even at the lower share price of 60,000 won, we continue to have a Negative View of WCP. 
We have updated our valuation on WCP taking into account the latest prices and valuation multiples of the comps as of 29 September. 
Our base case valuation of WCP is market cap of 1.8 trillion won or target price of 51,973 won, which is 13% lower than the IPO price of 60,000 won.


Trading Strategy for WCP Post Lowered IPO Price

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the first day trading strategy of CALB (3931 HK) amid market turmoil.</li>
<li>CALB priced its IPO at HK$38 per share, which is at the low end of the IPO price range. CALB raised US$1.3 billion in this IPO. </li>
<li>Unlike recent disappointing IPOs for Leapmotor and Onewo, we believe CALB's IPO could perform better in its IPO debut. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the first day trading strategy of CALB (3931 HK) amid market turmoil.
CALB priced its IPO at HK$38 per share, which is at the low end of the IPO price range. CALB raised US$1.3 billion in this IPO. 
Unlike recent disappointing IPOs for Leapmotor and Onewo, we believe CALB's IPO could perform better in its IPO debut. 


CALB IPO: First Day Trading Strategy Amid Market Turmoil

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be five M&amp;A-related intra-review deletions between now and the end of the year.</li>
<li>There could be more index changes in the December 2022 Rebalance too. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.
There could be five M&amp;A-related intra-review deletions between now and the end of the year.
There could be more index changes in the December 2022 Rebalance too. 


STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Five Intra-Review Changes, Porsche Leading The Race

Germany

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) manufactures and sells cars and motorcycles. The Company offers convertible sports cars, sedans, and touring motorcycles with large displacement engines. BMW serves customers worldwide.

Mercedes-Benz Group AG operates as an automobile company. The Company designs, manufactures, distributes, and sells a wide range of automotive products such as passenger cars, trucks, vans, and buses. Mercedes-Benz Group also provides financial and other services relating to its automotive businesses.

Porsche Automobil Holding SE is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers development, production, and sale of automobiles along with financial services. Porsche operates worldwide.

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

Daimler AG develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells a wide range of automotive products such as passenger cars, trucks, vans, and buses. The Company also provides financial and other services relating to its automotive businesses.

Continental AG manufactures tires, automotive parts, and industrial products. The Company produces passenger cars, trucks, commercial vehicles, bicycle tires, braking systems, shock absorbers, hoses, drive belts, conveyor belting, transmission products, and sealing systems. Continental markets its products worldwide.

HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA develops and manufactures lighting, electronic components, and systems. The Company offers spare parts, chassis, side lights, and accessories, as well as vehicle diagnostics, battery installation, and lighting services. HELLA serves customers worldwide.

Schaeffler AG is an automotive and industrial supplier. The Company's business divisions include engine, transmission and chassis systems, automotive aftermarket, industrial applications, and industrial aftermarket. Schaeffler AG operates worldwide.

ElringKlinger AG manufactures and distributes original equipment and replacement parts for automobiles.  The Company makes cylinder-head gaskets, seals, modules, and elastomer gasket systems, and shielding systems.  ElringKlinger offers engine testing services.  The Company owns real estate properties such as industrial parks and warehouses.

adidas AG manufactures sports shoes and sports equipment. The Company produces products that include footwear, sports apparel, and golf clubs and balls. adidas sells its products worldwide.

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The Company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products such as generators and farm machinery. The Company also operates a financial credit business. Honda Motor has manufacturing facilities in the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Thailand.

Hyundai Motor Company manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. The Company also sells various auto parts and operates auto repair service centers throughout South Korea. Hyundai Motor provides financial services through its subsidiaries.

Kia Corporation manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, mini-buses, trucks and commercial vehicles. The Company also manufactures auto-parts and tools using hybrid electric and fuel cell technology. Kia markets its products worldwide.

Tata Motors Limited manufactures cars and commercial automotive vehicles in India. The Company designs, manufactures and sells heavy commercial, medium commercial and small commercial vehicles including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances and minibuses. Tata also manufactures small cars and sports utility vehicles.

Suzuki Motor Corporation manufactures automobiles, motorcycles, and their related parts. The Company has production facilities in USA, Japan, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Hungary.

Maruti Suzuki India Limited manufactures and exports automobiles. Maruti collaborated with Suzuki of Japan to produce affordable cars for the average Indian.

Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche Aktiengesellschaft manufactures passenger vehicles. The Company offers sports cars, SUVs, and other motor vehicles, as well as provides finance services. Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche serves customers worldwide.

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Dr Ing hc F Porsche (P911 GR)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, China A50, SET50, Bilibili, Leapmotor, Onewo, CALB

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Porsche AG Starts Trading

A lucky day for many: Volkswagen bags €9.8 bn for EV, the Porsches & Pïechs have again (some) direct control over Porsche AG plus a c.€19.05...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Trading Strategy for WCP Post Lowered IPO Price

Our base case valuation of WCP is market cap of 1.8 trillion won or target price of 51,973 won, which is 13% lower than the IPO price of 60,000 won.

Douglas Kim

CALB IPO: First Day Trading Strategy Amid Market Turmoil

We discuss the first day trading strategy of CALB (3931 HK) amid market turmoil. Unlike recent disappointing IPOs for Leapmotor and Onewo, we...

Douglas Kim

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Five Intra-Review Changes, Porsche Leading The Race

I expect ~12 ADDs/DELs in total for the STOXX Europe 600 index before the end of the year including intra-review changes and regular review...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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