Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The "January Effect," where investors repurchase stocks previously sold for tax-loss harvesting purposes at the end of December creates demand.</li>
<li>The Nifty 50 has experienced the Santa Claus rally in 9 out of the past 10 years, averaging a 1.76% return during this period.</li>
<li>Government shutdown risks in the US, rising treasury yields, and concerns about overvalued markets could dampen investor enthusiasm in 2024</li>
</ul>


The "January Effect," where investors repurchase stocks previously sold for tax-loss harvesting purposes at the end of December creates demand.
The Nifty 50 has experienced the Santa Claus rally in 9 out of the past 10 years, averaging a 1.76% return during this period.
Government shutdown risks in the US, rising treasury yields, and concerns about overvalued markets could dampen investor enthusiasm in 2024


Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a>'s PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing's PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA (NVDA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sherwin-williams-co-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15539:1" rel="noopener">Sherwin Williams (SHW US)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel (INTC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dow-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19107:1" rel="noopener">Dow (DOW US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dow-jones-industrial-average" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22887:1" rel="noopener">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> at the close on 7 November.</li>
<li>The impact of passive trading is highest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sherwin-williams-co-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15539:1" rel="noopener">Sherwin Williams Co (SHW US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dow-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19107:1" rel="noopener">Dow (DOW US)</a> in terms of days of ADV and free float. Round-trip trade is US$16.5bn.</li>
<li>Given the ad hoc nature of the rebalances and the short timeline between announcement and implementation, the stocks could move over the rest of the week.</li>
</ul>



NVIDIA (NVDA US) and Sherwin Williams (SHW US) will replace Intel (INTC US) and Dow (DOW US) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the close on 7 November.
The impact of passive trading is highest in Sherwin Williams Co (SHW US) and Dow (DOW US) in terms of days of ADV and free float. Round-trip trade is US$16.5bn.
Given the ad hoc nature of the rebalances and the short timeline between announcement and implementation, the stocks could move over the rest of the week.


Dow Jones Industrials (INDU) Index Rebalance: NVIDIA, Sherwin-Williams Replace Intel, Dow

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Trump has pulled ahead in the swing states according to all 3 main poll trackers (RCP, fivethirtyeight and FT), with all now suggesting a Trump win in the electoral college. </li>
<li>WI, MI, NE and PA remain tight races, but the other 3 are in Trump's bag. With Trump ahead in PA and WI, Harris' only route out is reversing these. </li>
<li>History suggests that high inflation over a presidential term is fatal to incumbents (1952, 1976, 1980, 1992). With prices now 25% higher than in Jan'21, swing voters blame incumbent Harris. </li>
</ul>


Trump has pulled ahead in the swing states according to all 3 main poll trackers (RCP, fivethirtyeight and FT), with all now suggesting a Trump win in the electoral college. 
WI, MI, NE and PA remain tight races, but the other 3 are in Trump's bag. With Trump ahead in PA and WI, Harris' only route out is reversing these. 
History suggests that high inflation over a presidential term is fatal to incumbents (1952, 1976, 1980, 1992). With prices now 25% higher than in Jan'21, swing voters blame incumbent Harris. 


US: Presidential Race Remains a Dead Heat but Perceived Inflation Likely a Tiebreaker

<ul>
<li>Core PCE inflation was 2.7%YoY in Aug'24, too high to allow another 50bp cut in Nov'24, despite the fourth consecutive MoM (annualized) gain in core PCE of less than 2%.</li>
<li>The Jul'23-Feb'24 acceleration in base money (10.2%YoY in Feb'24) contributed crucially to the Jan-Apr'24 spike in core PCE. Slower base money, and steadily accelerating M2, made things better since May'24. </li>
<li>Mild, steady acceleration in M2 (i.e., small rate cuts every 6 weeks) should allow core inflation to keep receding. Faster rate cuts are possible once inflation is genuinely at 2%YoY. </li>
</ul>


Core PCE inflation was 2.7%YoY in Aug'24, too high to allow another 50bp cut in Nov'24, despite the fourth consecutive MoM (annualized) gain in core PCE of less than 2%.
The Jul'23-Feb'24 acceleration in base money (10.2%YoY in Feb'24) contributed crucially to the Jan-Apr'24 spike in core PCE. Slower base money, and steadily accelerating M2, made things better since May'24. 
Mild, steady acceleration in M2 (i.e., small rate cuts every 6 weeks) should allow core inflation to keep receding. Faster rate cuts are possible once inflation is genuinely at 2%YoY. 


US: Benign Core PCE Provides Smooth Passage to Small, Steady Rate Cuts

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There should be 1 change, could be 3 due to sector balance. The impact on the potential changes varies from 8-38x ADV. Fast Retailing could see a...

Brian Freitas

Dow Jones Industrials (INDU) Index Rebalance: NVIDIA, Sherwin-Williams Replace Intel, Dow

NVIDIA and Sherwin-Williams will replace Dow and Intel in the index. Round-trip trade is US$16.5bn. There is a lot to buy in Sherwin-Williams both...

Brian Freitas

US: Presidential Race Remains a Dead Heat but Perceived Inflation Likely a Tiebreaker

History shows that high inflation over a presidential term is fatal to incumbents (1952, 1976, 1980, 1992). Prices 25% above Jan'21 will harm...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Benign Core PCE Provides Smooth Passage to Small, Steady Rate Cuts

Core PCE inflation at 2.7%YoY in Aug'24 is too high for another 50bp cut. A Goldilocks economy needs Goldilocks monetary easing: not too hot, not...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

​Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There should be 1 change, could be 3 due to sector balance. The impact on the potential changes varies from 8-38x ADV. Fast Retailing could see a...

Brian Freitas

Dow Jones Industrials (INDU) Index Rebalance: NVIDIA, Sherwin-Williams Replace Intel, Dow

NVIDIA and Sherwin-Williams will replace Dow and Intel in the index. Round-trip trade is US$16.5bn. There is a lot to buy in Sherwin-Williams both...

Brian Freitas

US: Presidential Race Remains a Dead Heat but Perceived Inflation Likely a Tiebreaker

​History shows that high inflation over a presidential term is fatal to incumbents (1952, 1976, 1980, 1992). Prices 25% above Jan'21 will harm...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Benign Core PCE Provides Smooth Passage to Small, Steady Rate Cuts

​Core PCE inflation at 2.7%YoY in Aug'24 is too high for another 50bp cut. A Goldilocks economy needs Goldilocks monetary easing: not too hot, not...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

History shows that high inflation over a presidential term is fatal to incumbents (1952, 1976, 1980, 1992). Prices 25% above Jan'21 will harm...

Core PCE inflation at 2.7%YoY in Aug'24 is too high for another 50bp cut. A Goldilocks economy needs Goldilocks monetary easing: not too hot, not...