Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd-a-dvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:349:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN)</a> are likely inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P SENSEX INDEX</a> in June while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> could be deleted.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> could be added depending on sector balance while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> is a close delete on liquidity.</li>
<li>The inclusion of Tata Motors could result in the discount on the DVR line <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd-a-dvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:349:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN)</a> narrowing versus the common shares <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) and Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) are likely inclusions to the S&amp;P SENSEX INDEX in June while Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) could be deleted.

Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) could be added depending on sector balance while Nestle India (NEST IN) is a close delete on liquidity.
The inclusion of Tata Motors could result in the discount on the DVR line Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) narrowing versus the common shares Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN). 


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview (June): Down to the Wire

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fsn-e-commerce-ventures-nykaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33796:1" rel="noopener">FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (NYKAA IN)</a> announced a steady growth across all key operating metrics in both the Beauty and Fashion verticals for the quarter ending 31st December 2021.</li>
<li>Steady operating performance was helped by favorable macro (normalization in economic activity) and supportive sector-specific factors (Diwali, wedding season) as well as aggressive marketing (now 14% of revenues).</li>
<li>Despite an 83% growth in 9MFY22 GMV and a resultant 89% growth in gross profits, EBITDA grew only 11% as increased marketing spend consumed most of the margin upside.</li>
</ul>



FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) (NYKAA IN) announced a steady growth across all key operating metrics in both the Beauty and Fashion verticals for the quarter ending 31st December 2021.
Steady operating performance was helped by favorable macro (normalization in economic activity) and supportive sector-specific factors (Diwali, wedding season) as well as aggressive marketing (now 14% of revenues).
Despite an 83% growth in 9MFY22 GMV and a resultant 89% growth in gross profits, EBITDA grew only 11% as increased marketing spend consumed most of the margin upside.


FSN E-Comm (NYKAA IN): Macro, Micro & Marketing Drive Metric Growth

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> ends 31 January. We see 2 potential changes at the rebalance which should be announced end February.</li>
<li>There is a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-hospitals-enterprise" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:880:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>, while there is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd</a>.</li>
<li>The impact on the stocks is between 3-9 days of ADV, while the impact increases to between 9-22 days of delivery volume.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) ends 31 January. We see 2 potential changes at the rebalance which should be announced end February.
There is a high probability of Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN) replacing Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN), while there is a lower probability of Info Edge India replacing Coal India Ltd.
The impact on the stocks is between 3-9 days of ADV, while the impact increases to between 9-22 days of delivery volume.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in March

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<p>Consensus (continues to) believe that DMart is a linear and secular growth story. We disagree. This analyst's &gt;20 years Consumer experience suggests that in India, nuances matter more. We disagree with consensus' over-enthusiasm of BAAP. SELL. Watch-out for DMart (and modern retail) potentially getting disrupted like how India skipped wireline penetration and jumped directly to wireless.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Consensus (continues to) believe that DMart is a linear and secular growth story. We disagree. This analyst's &gt;20 years Consumer experience suggests that in India, nuances matter more. We disagree with consensus' over-enthusiasm of BAAP. SELL. Watch-out for DMart (and modern retail) potentially getting disrupted like how India skipped wireline penetration and jumped directly to wireless.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Not a BAAP story (please allow us to repeat an acronym which we coined in July 2020)

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nearly three-quarters of the way through the review period, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-hospitals-enterprise" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:880:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Hospitals (APHS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge (INFOE)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil (IOCL)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India (COAL)</a> in the NIFTY50.</li>
<li>The inclusion of Apollo Hospitals and deletion of IOC is a high probability event, while the inclusion of Info Edge and deletion of Coal India is a lower probability event.</li>
<li>The impact in terms of ADV to trade on the stocks is quite large and that increases further once we consider the impact in terms of delivery volumes.</li>
</ul>


Nearly three-quarters of the way through the review period, we see Apollo Hospitals (APHS) and Info Edge (INFOE) replacing Indian Oil (IOCL) and Coal India (COAL) in the NIFTY50.
The inclusion of Apollo Hospitals and deletion of IOC is a high probability event, while the inclusion of Info Edge and deletion of Coal India is a lower probability event.
The impact in terms of ADV to trade on the stocks is quite large and that increases further once we consider the impact in terms of delivery volumes.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Apollo Hospitals & Info Edge in the Zone to Replace IOC and COAL

India

Avenue Supermarts Ltd. (ASL) owns and operates hypermarkets and supermarkets. The Company offers products such as garments, footwears, toys and games, bed and bath linen, stationery, grocery, household, and electronic products. ASL operates throughout India.

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Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview (June): Down to the Wire

Tata Motors could replace Dr Reddy in the Sensex at the June rebalance. Hindalco is a close add while Nestle is a close delete. The inclusion of...

Brian Freitas

FSN E-Comm (NYKAA IN): Macro, Micro & Marketing Drive Metric Growth

Nykaa's 9MFY22 operating performance is in line with expectations but helped by strong marketing expenses. Valuations appear stretched beyond...

Devi Subhakesan

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in March

There is a high probability of Apollo Hosp replacing Indian Oil in the NIFTY Index at the March rebalance. There is a lower probability of Info...

Brian Freitas

Not a BAAP story (please allow us to repeat an acronym which we coined in July 2020)

Consensus (continues to) believe that DMart is a linear and secular growth story. We disagree. This analyst's >20 years Consumer experience...

ICICI Securities Limited

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Apollo Hospitals & Info Edge in the Zone to Replace IOC and COAL

High probability changes are inclusion of Apollo Hospitals & deletion of IOCL, while there is a lower probability of Info Edge being added & COAL...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview (June): Down to the Wire

Tata Motors could replace Dr Reddy in the Sensex at the June rebalance. Hindalco is a close add while Nestle is a close delete. The inclusion of...

Brian Freitas

FSN E-Comm (NYKAA IN): Macro, Micro & Marketing Drive Metric Growth

Nykaa's 9MFY22 operating performance is in line with expectations but helped by strong marketing expenses. Valuations appear stretched beyond...

Devi Subhakesan

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in March

There is a high probability of Apollo Hosp replacing Indian Oil in the NIFTY Index at the March rebalance. There is a lower probability of Info...

Brian Freitas

Not a BAAP story (please allow us to repeat an acronym which we coined in July 2020)

Consensus (continues to) believe that DMart is a linear and secular growth story. We disagree. This analyst&#x27;s >20 years Consumer experience...

ICICI Securities Limited

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Apollo Hospitals & Info Edge in the Zone to Replace IOC and COAL

High probability changes are inclusion of Apollo Hospitals & deletion of IOCL, while there is a lower probability of Info Edge being added & COAL...

Brian Freitas

Consensus (continues to) believe that DMart is a linear and secular growth story. We disagree. This analyst's >20 years Consumer experience...