Asia Consumer Research, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Asia Consumer Research

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Capital Markets

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) / Equity Capital Markets

<p>In this insight, we analyze <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fsn-e-commerce-ventures-nykaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33796:1" rel="noopener">FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa)</a> 's IPO by valuing its two distinctly different businesses - Beauty &amp; Personal care (BPC) and Fashion - separately, based on two sets of peer valuation. We also share our GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) projections for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fsn-e-commerce-ventures-nykaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33796:1" rel="noopener">FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa)</a> based on a bottom-up analysis using key operational metrics of Beauty &amp; Personal care (BPC) and Fashion retail. We also ran a rationality check on our projections by comparing them with top-down analysis. See detailed tables in the report below.</p><p>A key challenge that investors face in valuing Nykaa is the lack of listed comparable peers. We note that Nykaa's established BPC business is comparable to any high growth-high margin branded consumer, retail play in India given a similar operating structure. However, its emerging fashion retail is run as a marketplace with much stronger growth potential but at lower margins. Hence online consumer marketplace operators like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> could be a better fit for its peer comparison.</p><p>For background read on the company's key strengths, concerns, and competitive landscape, please refer to our earlier insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fsn-ecommerce-nykaa-ipo-glowing-beauty-growing-fashion-a-primer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55547" rel="noopener">FSN ECommerce (Nykaa) IPO: Glowing Beauty, Growing Fashion. A Primer.</a></p>

In this insight, we analyze FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) 's IPO by valuing its two distinctly different businesses - Beauty &amp; Personal care (BPC) and Fashion - separately, based on two sets of peer valuation. We also share our GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) projections for FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) based on a bottom-up analysis using key operational metrics of Beauty &amp; Personal care (BPC) and Fashion retail. We also ran a rationality check on our projections by comparing them with top-down analysis. See detailed tables in the report below.A key challenge that investors face in valuing Nykaa is the lack of listed comparable peers. We note that Nykaa's established BPC business is comparable to any high growth-high margin branded consumer, retail play in India given a similar operating structure. However, its emerging fashion retail is run as a marketplace with much stronger growth potential but at lower margins. Hence online consumer marketplace operators like Zomato (ZOMATO IN) could be a better fit for its peer comparison.For background read on the company's key strengths, concerns, and competitive landscape, please refer to our earlier insight FSN ECommerce (Nykaa) IPO: Glowing Beauty, Growing Fashion. A Primer.

FSN Ecommerce IPO Valuation: Nykaa Can Be Appetizing if You Liked Zomato

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Robust store operating metrics (breakeven in 18-24 months of its operations and one of industry best revenue per sq ft: Rs 32000+) Q2FY22 Results: Operating performance better than consensus estimates as...</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Robust store operating metrics (breakeven in 18-24 months of its operations and one of industry best revenue per sq ft: Rs 32000+) Q2FY22 Results: Operating performance better than consensus estimates as...Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Avenue Supermarts: Strong Performance; Rich Valuations Limit Upside

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

<p>We revise our estimates leading to an upward revision in our target price to Rs 3,600/share (prev Rs 3,110) valuing at 45x FY24E EV/EBITDA. We downgrade the stock to SELL from HOLD earlier.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

We revise our estimates leading to an upward revision in our target price to Rs 3,600/share (prev Rs 3,110) valuing at 45x FY24E EV/EBITDA. We downgrade the stock to SELL from HOLD earlier.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Avenue Supermarts: Priced to Perfection; Downgrade to Sell

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

<p>We maintain our SELL recommendation on DMART with a revised DCF-based TP of INR 2,700/sh (earlier 2,260/sh), implying 35x Dec-23E for the standalone business + 4x Dec-23E sales for DMART Ready. Note: the target price change is a function of EPS change (+4%), a 6M DCF rollover (+9%), and a marginal multiple increase (+4%). Avenue Supermarts: D-MARTs Q2FY22 revenue recovery was healthy (47% growth YoY). Profitability and unit economics were in line but have not yet caught up with the pre-pandemic levels.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

We maintain our SELL recommendation on DMART with a revised DCF-based TP of INR 2,700/sh (earlier 2,260/sh), implying 35x Dec-23E for the standalone business + 4x Dec-23E sales for DMART Ready. Note: the target price change is a function of EPS change (+4%), a 6M DCF rollover (+9%), and a marginal multiple increase (+4%). Avenue Supermarts: D-MARTs Q2FY22 revenue recovery was healthy (47% growth YoY). Profitability and unit economics were in line but have not yet caught up with the pre-pandemic levels.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.</p>

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

India

Avenue Supermarts Ltd. (ASL) owns and operates hypermarkets and supermarkets. The Company offers products such as garments, footwears, toys and games, bed and bath linen, stationery, grocery, household, and electronic products. ASL operates throughout India.

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Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)

FSN Ecommerce IPO Valuation: Nykaa Can Be Appetizing if You Liked Zomato

Segment-wise valuation analysis based on separate peer set to better reflect the distinct operating structures and margin/growth profiles of...

Devi Subhakesan

Avenue Supermarts: Strong Performance; Rich Valuations Limit Upside

Robust store operating metrics (breakeven in 18-24 months of its operations and one of industry best revenue per sq ft: Rs 32000+) Q2FY22 Results:...

ICICI Securities Limited

Avenue Supermarts: Priced to Perfection; Downgrade to Sell

We revise our estimates leading to an upward revision in our target price to Rs 3,600/share (prev Rs 3,110) valuing at 45x FY24E EV/EBITDA. We...

Axis Direct

HSIE Results Daily: Avenue Supermarts

We maintain our SELL recommendation on DMART with a revised DCF-based TP of INR 2,700/sh (earlier 2,260/sh), implying 35x Dec-23E for the...

HDFC Securities

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research

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