Research on Indian Equities, Diary Of A Private Investor

Private Investor

Research on Indian Equities

Diary Of A Private Investor

Diary Of A Private Investor is my attempt to share Notes, Research and Thoughts as I carry out day-to-day chores as a Full-Time Investor in the Indian Equity Markets. I am looking to write about everything markets; from Business Insights, Stock Specific Research, Useful Analysis Concepts and Interesting Perspectives on Investing. I am currently a Full-Time Investor and I’ve been investing for over 6 years now, including professional stints at a couple of Research & Fund Management Firms. Over these years in the market, I’ve had a unique experience to learn the roots of traditional investing as well as the new-age investing frameworks; and with this unique blend is how I approach the Puzzle of Investing.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Retailing is a straight forward business model wherein growth is primarily driven by continuous addition of new stores.</li><li>And the ability to add new stores is dependent on two key aspects- 1. Retailer’s Right To Win Proposition to add new stores makes sense only when the retailer can generate revenues from the new store.</li><li>And this revenue generation from new stores is dependent on the demand of end products and what value one is providing to its customers to capture a part of that demand.</li></ul>

Retailing is a straight forward business model wherein growth is primarily driven by continuous addition of new stores.And the ability to add new stores is dependent on two key aspects- 1. Retailer’s Right To Win Proposition to add new stores makes sense only when the retailer can generate revenues from the new store.And this revenue generation from new stores is dependent on the demand of end products and what value one is providing to its customers to capture a part of that demand.

SSG- The Most Important Metric in Retailing

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In May 2022, Delhivery raised around US$680m in its India IPO, the company is backed by a host of financial investors, the largest being Softbank.</li>
<li>Delhivery is an online logistics service provider which covers express parcel delivery, heavy goods delivery, part truckload (PTL) freight, truckload (TL) freight, supply chain solutions, cross border solutions etc.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.</li>
</ul>


In May 2022, Delhivery raised around US$680m in its India IPO, the company is backed by a host of financial investors, the largest being Softbank.
Delhivery is an online logistics service provider which covers express parcel delivery, heavy goods delivery, part truckload (PTL) freight, truckload (TL) freight, supply chain solutions, cross border solutions etc.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.


Delhivery IPO Lockup Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Release, with Softbank the Largest Holder

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Avenue Supermarts: Higher bill sizes + lower footfalls aid FMCG profitability/productivity but are a sign of more targeted shopping with little room for discovery-based purchases (courtesy inflationary pressures), which in turn make a dent on the more profitable GM &amp; apparel sales (constituted &lt;25% vs a typical run-rate of 28%).</li><li>L&amp;T Infotech: L&amp;T Infotech’s (LTI) revenue and margin came in line in Q2FY23.</li><li>ICICI Prudential Life: ICICI Prudential Life (IPRU) reported a weak APE growth (+1.7% 3-year CAGR, in line with estimates); however, VNB margins, at 31%, surprised (200bps ahead of estimates), translating into 21% YoY VNB growth.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Avenue Supermarts: Higher bill sizes + lower footfalls aid FMCG profitability/productivity but are a sign of more targeted shopping with little room for discovery-based purchases (courtesy inflationary pressures), which in turn make a dent on the more profitable GM &amp; apparel sales (constituted &lt;25% vs a typical run-rate of 28%).L&amp;T Infotech: L&amp;T Infotech’s (LTI) revenue and margin came in line in Q2FY23.ICICI Prudential Life: ICICI Prudential Life (IPRU) reported a weak APE growth (+1.7% 3-year CAGR, in line with estimates); however, VNB margins, at 31%, surprised (200bps ahead of estimates), translating into 21% YoY VNB growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Avenue Supermarts, L&T Infotech, ICICI Prudential Life, Angel One

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>DMART Q2FY23 reported consolidated revenue growth of ~37% YoY (21% on a 3-Year CAGR basis) to Rs 10,683 Cr, a trend which we continue to see for three quarters.</li><li>The growth was primarily led by FMCG and staples segment, while the general merchandise and apparel segment grew slower.</li><li>The management highlighted that the recovery in the discretionary items in the non- FMCG segment was still below pre-Covid levels as inflationary pressure is more acute at lower price points of the discretionary non-FMCG category. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

DMART Q2FY23 reported consolidated revenue growth of ~37% YoY (21% on a 3-Year CAGR basis) to Rs 10,683 Cr, a trend which we continue to see for three quarters.The growth was primarily led by FMCG and staples segment, while the general merchandise and apparel segment grew slower.The management highlighted that the recovery in the discretionary items in the non- FMCG segment was still below pre-Covid levels as inflationary pressure is more acute at lower price points of the discretionary non-FMCG category. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Avenue Supermarts (DMART) - Discretionary Yet To Recover Fully; Maintain HOLD

<ul><li>Discretionary categories to clock another healthy quarter: Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~29% YoY (revenue) in Q2FY23 (3-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 19/17% resp)</li><li>Ticket sizes in retail remain elevated, courtesy higher ASP vis-à-vis pre-pandemic levels</li><li>Footfalls density is normalising too; esp in categories/companies with a higher urban presence</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Discretionary categories to clock another healthy quarter: Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~29% YoY (revenue) in Q2FY23 (3-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 19/17% resp)Ticket sizes in retail remain elevated, courtesy higher ASP vis-à-vis pre-pandemic levelsFootfalls density is normalising too; esp in categories/companies with a higher urban presenceContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Expect a buoyant quarter; alas! bargains absent

India

Avenue Supermarts Ltd. (ASL) owns and operates hypermarkets and supermarkets. The Company offers products such as garments, footwears, toys and games, bed and bath linen, stationery, grocery, household, and electronic products. ASL operates throughout India.

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Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)

SSG- The Most Important Metric in Retailing

Retailing is a straight forward business model wherein growth is primarily driven by continuous addition of new stores.And the ability to add new...

Private Investor

Delhivery IPO Lockup Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Release, with Softbank the Largest Holder

In May 2022, Delhivery raised around US$680m in its India IPO, the company is backed by a host of financial investors, the largest being Softbank....

Sumeet Singh

HSIE Results Daily: Avenue Supermarts, L&T Infotech, ICICI Prudential Life, Angel One

Higher bill sizes + lower footfalls aid FMCG profitability/productivity but are a sign of more targeted shopping with little room for discovery...

HDFC Securities

Avenue Supermarts (DMART) - Discretionary Yet To Recover Fully; Maintain HOLD

DMART Q2FY23 reported consolidated revenue growth of ~37% YoY (21% on a 3-Year CAGR basis) to Rs 10,683 Cr, a trend which we continue to see for...

Axis Direct

Consumer Discretionary (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Expect a buoyant quarter; alas! bargains absent

Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~29% YoY (revenue) in Q2FY23 (3-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 19/17% resp)

HDFC Securities

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