Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.</li>
<li>Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).</li>
<li>Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.
Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).
Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.


U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>As of FY20, the Food Services industry in India was valued at Rs4.2tn and grew by 7- 8% over the prior 5 years.</li><li>FY21 was a forgettable year, as the sector was affected by restrictions on operating hours &amp; capacity, which shrunk the industry size by ~76%.</li><li>Around 26% of restaurants in India shut down permanently, with ~33% of the 7.4mn workforce losing their jobs...(continued).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

As of FY20, the Food Services industry in India was valued at Rs4.2tn and grew by 7- 8% over the prior 5 years.FY21 was a forgettable year, as the sector was affected by restrictions on operating hours &amp; capacity, which shrunk the industry size by ~76%.Around 26% of restaurants in India shut down permanently, with ~33% of the 7.4mn workforce losing their jobs...(continued).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Sector Update: Restructured Food Services Industry Looking at Good Potential Going Ahead

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

CE Info Systems (MapmyIndia) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ce-info-systems-mapmyindia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34215:1" rel="noopener">CE Info Systems (MapmyIndia) (1052633Z IN)</a> raised around US$138m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>CE Info Systems is India’s leading provider of advanced digital maps, geospatial software and location-based IoT Technologies, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).</li>
<li>In our view, the best way to value the firm would be to compare it against its India peers which, based on our assumptions, provide an upside potential of 70.5-80.6%.</li>
</ul>



CE Info Systems (MapmyIndia) (1052633Z IN) raised around US$138m in its India IPO.
CE Info Systems is India’s leading provider of advanced digital maps, geospatial software and location-based IoT Technologies, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).
In our view, the best way to value the firm would be to compare it against its India peers which, based on our assumptions, provide an upside potential of 70.5-80.6%.


CE Info Systems (MapmyIndia) IPO Trading - Poised for a Solid Debut

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Near the end of the review period, we see 8 stocks migrating upward from Mid to Large Cap and 9 stocks migrating from Small to Mid Cap.</li>
<li>We expect 12 stocks to migrate downward from Large to Mid Cap and 19 stocks from Mid to Small Cap. Four new listings will be added to the Large Caps.</li>
<li>Historically, the upward migrating stocks have outperformed the stocks migrating lower as the active funds rebalance their portfolios to meet regulations around stocks held based on the fund classification.</li>
</ul>


Near the end of the review period, we see 8 stocks migrating upward from Mid to Large Cap and 9 stocks migrating from Small to Mid Cap.
We expect 12 stocks to migrate downward from Large to Mid Cap and 19 stocks from Mid to Small Cap. Four new listings will be added to the Large Caps.
Historically, the upward migrating stocks have outperformed the stocks migrating lower as the active funds rebalance their portfolios to meet regulations around stocks held based on the fund classification.


India: Half-Yearly Stock Reclassification for Active Funds

RateGain Travel Technologies / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rategain-travel-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35265:1" rel="noopener">RateGain Travel Technologies (1920810D IN)</a> is looking to raise up to US$178m in its India IPO. </li>
<li>RateGain Travel Technologies is the largest SaaS company in the hospitality and travel industry in India. The deal will comprise a mix of primary and secondary shares.</li>
<li>As of Sept 2021, the firm serves 1,462 customers including eight Global Fortune 500 companies, and has offices in six countries. </li>
</ul>



RateGain Travel Technologies (1920810D IN) is looking to raise up to US$178m in its India IPO. 
RateGain Travel Technologies is the largest SaaS company in the hospitality and travel industry in India. The deal will comprise a mix of primary and secondary shares.
As of Sept 2021, the firm serves 1,462 customers including eight Global Fortune 500 companies, and has offices in six countries. 


RateGain Travel Technologies IPO - Battered by the Pandemic, However, Operating Metrics Recovering

India

EIH Limited owns and operates luxury hotels and resorts in India under the name "Oberoi."  The Company also manages a mid-price hotel chain in India, in addition to hotels in Egypt, Australia, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.

Thomas Cook (India) Ltd. operates as an authorized dealer in foreign exchange and as a travel agent. The Company also offers packaged tours, cargo services and travel related insurance. Thomas Cook (India) has offices and foreign exchange counters at various international airports in major cities in India.

Westlife Development Limited is an operating-cum-investment company that puts up and operates quick service restaurants. The Company, through its subsidiary, operates fast food franchise restaurants across western and southern India.

Lemon Tree Hotels Limited owns and operates a chain of hotels and resorts. The Company offers room accommodations, resorts, transportation, swimming pools, on-site restaurants, meeting rooms, fitness gym, and spa facilities. Lemon Tree Hotels serves customers in India.

Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Ltd. provides leisure hospitality. The Company offers family holidays with a range of services through vacation memberships. Mahindra Holidays gives its members the choice to stay at resorts with furnished accommodations, such as apartments and cottages, and resort amenities, such as restaurants, kids clubs, and other activities.

India Tourism Development Corp Ltd (known as ITDC) develops tourism infrastructure and promotes India  as a tourist destination. ITDC provides tourism services including accommodation, catering, travel-related services, event management, publicity, hotel consultancy, duty free shops, in-house travel agency, entertainment and shopping.

Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. owns and operates fast food chains. The Company offers donuts, baked goods, coffee, bagels, muffin, fruit milkshakes, smoothies, tea, sandwiches, pizza, and beverages. Jubilant Foodworks serves its products to customers throughout India.

Wonderla Holidays Limited owns and operates two amusement parks in Kochi and Bangalore, India.

Delta Corp Limited a diversified business group having a presence in the entertainment and gaming, real estate business in India and Kenya. The Company's business includes offshore casinos, and real estate consulting & development.

Adlabs Entertainment, Ltd. operates a theme park. The Company manages a theme park with rides, shopping, dining, accommodation, and other entertainment services. Adlabs Entertainment serves customers near Mumbai, India.

Skylark Co. Ltd. mainly operates a family restaurant chain across Japan.  The Company offers Japanese-style, Western-style, and Asia-style foods for a wide variety of targeted customer segments.  Skylark also sells food and provides delivery servies.

Domino's Pizza Enterprises Limited is a franchise licence owner of the Domino's Pizza. The Company sits in the quick service restaurant segment within fast food retail and has a license which covers Australia, New Zealand, France, Belgium, The Netherlands and the Principality of Monaco. The Domino's brand is owned by Domino's Pizza, Inc, a listed US company.

SJM Holdings Limited offers amusement and recreation services.  The Company operates casinos, hotels, and other tourism-related facilities in Macau.

Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited develops, owns, and operates casinos. The Company offers casino gaming, restaurants, bars, and resorts facilities. Melco Resorts & Entertainment serves customers in Asia.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation is a worldwide developer, marketer, seller and manager of vacation ownership resorts and vacation club, destination club and exchange programs, principally under the "Marriott" and "Ritz-Carlton" brands and trademarks, which we license from Marriott International and Ritz-Carlton.

Genting Malaysia Berhad operates a tourist resort in Genting Highlands which includes hotels, restaurants, casinos, and recreational and amusement facilities. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and leases property, operates leisure and hospitality services, and provides time share ownership scheme.

NagaCorp Limited is a leisure and tourism company with casino operations in Phnom Penh, the capital city of Cambodia. The Company also offers hotel accommodation, manages food and beverage outlets, recreational facilities, entertainmentand retail operations.

Mandarin Oriental International Limited is an owner and operator of luxury hotels, resorts, and residences. The Group now operates, or has under development, hotels in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa. Mandarin Oriental International also operates, or has under development, residences at Mandarin Oriental.

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

Penn National Gaming, Inc. owns and operates Charles Town Races in West Virginia which features slot machines, casinos in Mississippi, and a riverboat gaming facility in Louisiana.  The Company also owns racetracks and off-track wagering facilities in Pennsylvania, as well as manages a gaming facility in the Province of Ontario, Canada.

TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation operates a variety of restaurants such as skewered grill chicken, Japanese noodle, ramen noodle, Japanese-style pancake, and pasta restaurants.  The Company operates its business at food courts in shopping centers, stations, highway rest areas, and suburbs.

Devyani International Limited distributes groceries and related products. The Company operates franchisee business and chain of quick service restaurants. Devyani International serves customers in India.

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Devyani International (DEVYANI IN)

U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

This is now the third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes with bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals,...

Vermilion Research

Consumer Sector Update: Restructured Food Services Industry Looking at Good Potential Going Ahead

Consumer Sector Update Expert Meeting Update Restructured Food Services industry looking at good potential going ahead We recently hosted...

Nirmal Bang

CE Info Systems (MapmyIndia) IPO Trading - Poised for a Solid Debut

CE Info Systems (MapmyIndia) (1052633Z IN) raised around US$138m in its India IPO. Past deals with similar strong subscription rates have performed...

Clarence Chu

India: Half-Yearly Stock Reclassification for Active Funds

Upward migrations include 8 stocks from MidCap to LargeCap & 9 from SmallCap to MidCap. 4 new listings will join the LargeCaps and 6 new listings...

Brian Freitas

RateGain Travel Technologies IPO - Battered by the Pandemic, However, Operating Metrics Recovering

RateGain Travel Technologies (1920810D IN) is looking to raise up to US$178m in its India IPO. RateGain Travel Technologies is the largest SaaS...

Clarence Chu

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