Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Aug 2022, Zomato completed the acquisition of Blinkit’s outstanding shares via issuing its own shares. These issued shares will come up for lockup release on 10th Aug 2023.</li>
<li>Zomato is one of two leading food delivery app operators in India. Its acquisition of Blinkit marked its foray into the instant grocery segment.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.</li>
</ul>


In Aug 2022, Zomato completed the acquisition of Blinkit’s outstanding shares via issuing its own shares. These issued shares will come up for lockup release on 10th Aug 2023.
Zomato is one of two leading food delivery app operators in India. Its acquisition of Blinkit marked its foray into the instant grocery segment.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.


Zomato Lock-Up - A US$650m+ Worth Acquisition Linked Lockup Release

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Cummins: Cummins India Ltd (CIL) recorded the highest-ever revenue of INR 22b (+31%/+15% YoY/QoQ, in line with our estimate)</li><li>This was driven mainly by strong pre-buy for CPCB 2 gensets</li><li>The deadline for the sale of these gensets has been extended until Jul’24 (an extension of six months)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cummins: Cummins India Ltd (CIL) recorded the highest-ever revenue of INR 22b (+31%/+15% YoY/QoQ, in line with our estimate)This was driven mainly by strong pre-buy for CPCB 2 gensetsThe deadline for the sale of these gensets has been extended until Jul’24 (an extension of six months)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Cummins, Devyani International, Radico Khaitan

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barbeque-nation-hospitality-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28868:1" rel="noopener">Barbeque Nation Hospitality (BARBEQUE IN)</a> has a strong operating model, well-regarded management, and a good dining experience, resonating well with non-vegetarian and corporate customers.</li>
<li>Current consumer trends show increased spending in the restaurant business, driven by social pressure to showcase lifestyles on platforms like Instagram.</li>
<li>ONDC has potential as a platform but faces challenges in scaling up due to infrastructure and delivery integration issues.</li>
</ul>



Barbeque Nation Hospitality (BARBEQUE IN) has a strong operating model, well-regarded management, and a good dining experience, resonating well with non-vegetarian and corporate customers.
Current consumer trends show increased spending in the restaurant business, driven by social pressure to showcase lifestyles on platforms like Instagram.
ONDC has potential as a platform but faces challenges in scaling up due to infrastructure and delivery integration issues.


Trends in Casual Dining, Quick Service and Online Food Delivery

<ul><li>Astral: We maintain REDUCE on Astral, as we believe its valuation is expensive, and we revise the target price to INR 1,480/sh (30x its Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA implied P/E 50x Mar-25E)</li><li>We believe Astral’s foray into new businesses (paints and bath ware) will reduce its valuation premium</li><li>In Q4FY23, its consolidated revenue rose 8/19% YoY/QoQ (strong growth across both plumbing and adhesives), while EBITDA/APAT grew by 43/47%, as margin expanded across plumbing/paints and adhesives (P&amp;A) segments by 600/410bps YoY</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Astral: We maintain REDUCE on Astral, as we believe its valuation is expensive, and we revise the target price to INR 1,480/sh (30x its Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA implied P/E 50x Mar-25E)We believe Astral’s foray into new businesses (paints and bath ware) will reduce its valuation premiumIn Q4FY23, its consolidated revenue rose 8/19% YoY/QoQ (strong growth across both plumbing and adhesives), while EBITDA/APAT grew by 43/47%, as margin expanded across plumbing/paints and adhesives (P&amp;A) segments by 600/410bps YoYContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Astral, Oberoi Realty, Jubilant FoodWorks, Devyani International

India

Devyani International Limited distributes groceries and related products. The Company operates franchisee business and chain of quick service restaurants. Devyani International serves customers in India.

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Devyani International (DEVYANI IN)

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Zomato Lock-Up - A US$650m+ Worth Acquisition Linked Lockup Release

In Aug 2022, Zomato completed the acquisition of Blinkit’s outstanding shares via issuing its own shares. These issued shares will come up for...

Sumeet Singh

HSIE Results Daily: Cummins, Devyani International, Radico Khaitan

Cummins: Cummins India Ltd (CIL) recorded the highest-ever revenue of INR 22b (+31%/+15% YoY/QoQ, in line with our estimate)

HDFC Securities

Trends in Casual Dining, Quick Service and Online Food Delivery

Consumer trends: Rising spending, influenced by social pressure and online presence. ONDC: Promising platform, facing scaling challenges with...

Pranav Bhavsar

HSIE Results Daily: Astral, Oberoi Realty, Jubilant FoodWorks, Devyani International

Astral: We maintain REDUCE on Astral, as we believe its valuation is expensive, and we revise the target price to INR 1,480/sh (30x its Mar-25E...

HDFC Securities

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