Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tsingshan metals has reached an agreement with bankers on nickel trade</li>
<li>There is risk of significant impairments at STAN and other counter-party banks</li>
<li>This comes at a time when STAN's impairment costs are starting off at a low level</li>
</ul>


Tsingshan metals has reached an agreement with bankers on nickel trade
There is risk of significant impairments at STAN and other counter-party banks
This comes at a time when STAN's impairment costs are starting off at a low level


SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

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For the 5 trading sessions that spanned Mar 25 to 31, the Straits Times Index (STI) gained 0.3 per cent, while the FTSE China A50 Index dipped 0.1 per cent, the Hang Seng Index slipped 0.1 per cent and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI fell 0.6 per cent. 
Overall, institutions were net sellers over the 5 sessions with S$143 million of net outflow. DBS Group Holdings, UOB, Mapletree Commercial Trust, Keppel Corporation and Wilmar International led the net institutional outflows for the 5 sessions through to Mar 31. 
Meanwhile, Singapore Airlines, City Developments, SATS, SIA Engineering Company and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust received the highest net institutional inflows for the 5 sessions.  
For Q1 2022, Singapore stocks received S$1.12 billion of net institutional inflows, with Singapore Telecommunications,  OCBC,  UOB, Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust and Wilmar International drawing the most net institutional inflows. Share buybacks 
There were 18 primary-listed stocks conducting share buybacks over the 5 sessions with a total consideration of S$11.9 million, down from S$15.7 million for the preceding week. 
OCBC, Raffles Medical Group and Hong Fok Corporation led the buyback consideration tally. OCBC paid an average price of S$12.40 per share, while Raffles Medical Group paid S$1.17 per share. 
For Q1 2022, Keppel led the buyback consideration tally for primary-listed stocks buying back 27.3 million shares, with a consideration of S$164.2 million, at an average price of S$6.02 per share. 
On Jan 27, Keppel announced the establishment of a S$500 million share buyback programme, pursuant to the share purchase mandate granted by its shareholders at the company's previous AGM. The company noted that shares repurchased will be held as treasury shares which will be used in part for the annual vesting of employee share plans, but also as possible currency for future merger and acquisition (M&amp;A) activities. 
For the quarter, OCBC bought back 3.5 million shares at an average price of S$12.05, while Raffles Medical Group bought back 13.2 million shares at an average price of S$1.18 per share. Director and substantial shareholder transactions 
The 5 trading sessions saw almost 100 changes to director interests and substantial shareholdings filed for 40 primary-listed stocks. 
This included 14 company director acquisitions with 3 disposals filed, while substantial shareholders reported 11 acquisitions and 3 disposals. HRnetGroup 
On Mar 25, Simco acquired 4,204,300 shares of HRnetGroup HRnetGroup : CHZ 0% for a consideration of S$3,254,969, at 77.4 Singapore cents per share. This increased Simco's direct interest in HRnetGroup from 77.61 per cent to 78.03 per cent, while increasing the deemed interests of founding chairman Peter Sim, executive director and chief executive officer of Recruit Express JS Sim, and executive director and chief legal officer Adeline Sim. 
Peter Sim founded the company in 1992 and has more than 40 years of expertise in social work, human resource management, and talent acquisition. 
HRnetGroup has since grown its business to over 900 consultants spread across 13 Asian cities. 
On Feb 25, HRnetGroup reported that its FY21 (ended Dec 31) revenue increased 36.4 per cent from FY20, with net profit growing 41.1 per cent to S$70.3 million. This was another record-breaking year in revenue for the company with the S$590.5 million revenue in FY21, following S$433.0 million revenue in FY20 and S$423.1 million revenue in FY19. 
The company added that revenue continues to be generated from diverse sources across multiple sectors and specialisations and it is not dependent on any single sector, with its top 10 clients contributing 26.6 per cent to its FY21 revenue. 
In FY21, the company facilitated 7,794 permanent job placements while placing 54,448 unique contractor headcounts for the year. 
On Dec 30, 2021, the board of directors of HRnetGroup announced that Adeline Sim had been appointed by the Minister for Education to the boards of SkillsFuture Singapore and of the Lifelong Learning Institute. 
Effective Jan 1, Wallace Gao Yong was appointed as an independent director of HRnetGroup. He is based in Beijing and is the chairman at Beijing Career International, the first HR service enterprise that was listed on China's A-share market. Olam Group 
On Mar 28, Olam Group Olam Intl : O32 0% independent non-executive director Nihal Kaviratne acquired 133,100 shares of the company at an average price of S$1.79 per share. With a consideration of S$237,985, this increased his direct interest in Olam Group to 0.1 per cent. 
Kaviratne was previously the chairman and CEO for the Unilever Group across Asia, Europe and Latin America. His career with the Unilever Group spanned 40 years which also covered senior level management positions in sales, marketing, brand and strategic planning and development. 
Olam Group has now completed the first 3 of 4 steps of its transformational re-organisation plan to re-organise its diverse business portfolio into 3 distinct operating groups - Olam Food Ingredients, Olam Agri and Olam. Olam Food Ingredients intends to seek a primary listing in London, and a concurrent secondary listing in Singapore. 
On Mar 25, Olam Group announced that in the light of current market conditions, and as a result of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, it did not expect the IPO of Olam Food Ingredients to take place during Q2 2022, as was previously planned. Amos Group 
Between Mar 28 and 29, Amos Group executive chairman Kyle Shaw acquired 465,000 shares of the company at an average price of 17.2 cents per share. With a consideration of S$80,081, this increased his deemed interest in the company from 80.51 per cent to 80.77 per cent. 
Shaw is the founder and managing partner of ShawKwei &amp; Partners, an international private equity fund manager investing in mid-market industrial and service businesses across Asia, the United States, and Europe. 
The Amos Group serves multinational customers in the marine and energy industries across a network of facilities spanning Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. The group supplies customers with technical services and supply solutions across 4 of the most vibrant oil and gas production zones on earth and through 4 of the world's busiest ports - Singapore, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Busan. The group is expected to report its FY22 (ended Mar 31) results at the end of May. Tai Sin Electric 
On Mar 23, Tai Sin Electric executive director and CEO Bernard Lim Boon Hock acquired 115,300 shares of the company at an average price of 39.0 cents per share. With a consideration of S$44,967, this took his total interest in Tai Sin Electric from 17.35 per cent to 17.38 per cent. 
Lim has gradually increased his total interest in Tai Sin Electric from 14.82 per cent at the end of 2019 and he has been an executive director of the company since September 1997. Challenger Technologies 
Between Mar 23 and 29, Digileap Capital acquired 50,400 shares of Challenger Technologies Challenger : 573 0% at 58.0 cents per share. This took the deemed interest of non-executive non-independent director Tan Keng Soon in the Singapore-focused multi-brand IT retailer from 15.03 per cent to 15.04 per cent. Tan is the co-founder and manager partner of Dymon Asia Capital and was recently appointed to the board of Challenger Technologies, on Nov 29, 2021. Tye Soon 
On Mar 29, Tye Soon managing director David Chong Tek Yew acquired 55,000 shares of the company for a consideration of S$21,900 at an average price of 39.8 cents per share. This followed on from Wong Huay Shien, the Chong's spouse, also acquiring 30,200 shares of Tye Soon on Mar 30 at 39.5 cents per share. 
The 3 transactions took Chong's total interest in the independent automotive parts distributor from 3.25 per cent to 3.35 per cent. 
Joining as group general manager/executive director in 1998, Chong was appointed deputy managing director in 2002, before being appointed managing director in February 2014. 
On Feb 23, Tye Soon reported that profit after tax totalled S$4.5 million for its FY21 (ended Dec 31), up from S$1.3 million in FY20. 
Partnering its principals mostly from Europe, Japan and Korea, the group has one of the largest portfolios of top-tier global brands of automotive parts. LHT Holdings 
On Mar 25, LHT Holdings managing director, Yap Mui Kee, acquired 52,100 shares of the company for a consideration of S$36,991. At 71.0 cents per share, this took her total interest in the manufacturer of high-quality wooden pallets, boxes, and crates from 14.79 per cent to 14.89 per cent. 
This followed her acquisitions of 17,700 shares at 70.0 cents per share on Mar 18 and 24,600 shares of at 69.1 cents per share on Mar 7.

Yap has over 35 years of experience in sales and marketing and plays a key role in exploring opportunities in new markets. Inside Insights is a weekly column on The Business Times,<a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/green-shoots-for-retail-and-hospitality-s-reits-amid-new-pandemic-phase"> </a><a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/hrnetgroups-largest-shareholder-raises-stake-1">read </a>the original version.
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    Share buyback


For the 5 trading sessions that spanned Mar 25 to 31, the Straits Times Index (STI) gained 0.3 per cent, while the FTSE China A50 Index dipped 0.1 per cent, the Hang Seng Index slipped 0.1 per cent and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI fell 0.6 per cent.  
Overall, institutions were net sellers over the 5 sessions with S$143 million of net outflow. DBS Group Holdings, UOB, Mapletree Commercial Trust, Keppel Corporation and Wilmar International led the net institutional outflows for the 5 sessions through to Mar 31.  
Meanwhile, Singapore Airlines, City Developments, SATS, SIA Engineering Company and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust received the highest net institutional inflows for the 5 sessions.   
For Q1 2022, Singapore stocks received S$1.12 billion of net institutional inflows, with Singapore Telecommunications,  OCBC,  UOB, Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust and Wilmar International drawing the most net institutional inflows.  Share buybacks  
There were 18 primary-listed stocks conducting share buybacks over the 5 sessions with a total consideration of S$11.9 million, down from S$15.7 million for the preceding week.  
OCBC, Raffles Medical Group and Hong Fok Corporation led the buyback consideration tally. OCBC paid an average price of S$12.40 per share, while Raffles Medical Group paid S$1.17 per share.  
For Q1 2022, Keppel led the buyback consideration tally for primary-listed stocks buying back 27.3 million shares, with a consideration of S$164.2 million, at an average price of S$6.02 per share.  
On Jan 27, Keppel announced the establishment of a S$500 million share buyback programme, pursuant to the share purchase mandate granted by its shareholders at the company's previous AGM. The company noted that shares repurchased will be held as treasury shares which will be used in part for the annual vesting of employee share plans, but also as possible currency for future merger and acquisition (M&amp;A) activities.  
For the quarter, OCBC bought back 3.5 million shares at an average price of S$12.05, while Raffles Medical Group bought back 13.2 million shares at an average price of S$1.18 per share.  Director and substantial shareholder transactions  
The 5 trading sessions saw almost 100 changes to director interests and substantial shareholdings filed for 40 primary-listed stocks.  
This included 14 company director acquisitions with 3 disposals filed, while substantial shareholders reported 11 acquisitions and 3 disposals.  HRnetGroup  
On Mar 25, Simco acquired 4,204,300 shares of HRnetGroup HRnetGroup : CHZ 0% for a consideration of S$3,254,969, at 77.4 Singapore cents per share. This increased Simco's direct interest in HRnetGroup from 77.61 per cent to 78.03 per cent, while increasing the deemed interests of founding chairman Peter Sim, executive director and chief executive officer of Recruit Express JS Sim, and executive director and chief legal officer Adeline Sim.  
Peter Sim founded the company in 1992 and has more than 40 years of expertise in social work, human resource management, and talent acquisition.  
HRnetGroup has since grown its business to over 900 consultants spread across 13 Asian cities.  
On Feb 25, HRnetGroup reported that its FY21 (ended Dec 31) revenue increased 36.4 per cent from FY20, with net profit growing 41.1 per cent to S$70.3 million. This was another record-breaking year in revenue for the company with the S$590.5 million revenue in FY21, following S$433.0 million revenue in FY20 and S$423.1 million revenue in FY19.  
The company added that revenue continues to be generated from diverse sources across multiple sectors and specialisations and it is not dependent on any single sector, with its top 10 clients contributing 26.6 per cent to its FY21 revenue.  
In FY21, the company facilitated 7,794 permanent job placements while placing 54,448 unique contractor headcounts for the year.  
On Dec 30, 2021, the board of directors of HRnetGroup announced that Adeline Sim had been appointed by the Minister for Education to the boards of SkillsFuture Singapore and of the Lifelong Learning Institute.  
Effective Jan 1, Wallace Gao Yong was appointed as an independent director of HRnetGroup. He is based in Beijing and is the chairman at Beijing Career International, the first HR service enterprise that was listed on China's A-share market.  Olam Group  
On Mar 28, Olam Group Olam Intl : O32 0% independent non-executive director Nihal Kaviratne acquired 133,100 shares of the company at an average price of S$1.79 per share. With a consideration of S$237,985, this increased his direct interest in Olam Group to 0.1 per cent.  
Kaviratne was previously the chairman and CEO for the Unilever Group across Asia, Europe and Latin America. His career with the Unilever Group spanned 40 years which also covered senior level management positions in sales, marketing, brand and strategic planning and development.  
Olam Group has now completed the first 3 of 4 steps of its transformational re-organisation plan to re-organise its diverse business portfolio into 3 distinct operating groups - Olam Food Ingredients, Olam Agri and Olam. Olam Food Ingredients intends to seek a primary listing in London, and a concurrent secondary listing in Singapore.  
On Mar 25, Olam Group announced that in the light of current market conditions, and as a result of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, it did not expect the IPO of Olam Food Ingredients to take place during Q2 2022, as was previously planned.  Amos Group  
Between Mar 28 and 29, Amos Group executive chairman Kyle Shaw acquired 465,000 shares of the company at an average price of 17.2 cents per share. With a consideration of S$80,081, this increased his deemed interest in the company from 80.51 per cent to 80.77 per cent.  
Shaw is the founder and managing partner of ShawKwei &amp; Partners, an international private equity fund manager investing in mid-market industrial and service businesses across Asia, the United States, and Europe.  
The Amos Group serves multinational customers in the marine and energy industries across a network of facilities spanning Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. The group supplies customers with technical services and supply solutions across 4 of the most vibrant oil and gas production zones on earth and through 4 of the world's busiest ports - Singapore, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Busan. The group is expected to report its FY22 (ended Mar 31) results at the end of May.  Tai Sin Electric  
On Mar 23, Tai Sin Electric executive director and CEO Bernard Lim Boon Hock acquired 115,300 shares of the company at an average price of 39.0 cents per share. With a consideration of S$44,967, this took his total interest in Tai Sin Electric from 17.35 per cent to 17.38 per cent.  
Lim has gradually increased his total interest in Tai Sin Electric from 14.82 per cent at the end of 2019 and he has been an executive director of the company since September 1997.  Challenger Technologies  
Between Mar 23 and 29, Digileap Capital acquired 50,400 shares of Challenger Technologies Challenger : 573 0% at 58.0 cents per share. This took the deemed interest of non-executive non-independent director Tan Keng Soon in the Singapore-focused multi-brand IT retailer from 15.03 per cent to 15.04 per cent. Tan is the co-founder and manager partner of Dymon Asia Capital and was recently appointed to the board of Challenger Technologies, on Nov 29, 2021.  Tye Soon  
On Mar 29, Tye Soon managing director David Chong Tek Yew acquired 55,000 shares of the company for a consideration of S$21,900 at an average price of 39.8 cents per share. This followed on from Wong Huay Shien, the Chong's spouse, also acquiring 30,200 shares of Tye Soon on Mar 30 at 39.5 cents per share.  
The 3 transactions took Chong's total interest in the independent automotive parts distributor from 3.25 per cent to 3.35 per cent.  
Joining as group general manager/executive director in 1998, Chong was appointed deputy managing director in 2002, before being appointed managing director in February 2014.  
On Feb 23, Tye Soon reported that profit after tax totalled S$4.5 million for its FY21 (ended Dec 31), up from S$1.3 million in FY20.  
Partnering its principals mostly from Europe, Japan and Korea, the group has one of the largest portfolios of top-tier global brands of automotive parts.  LHT Holdings  
On Mar 25, LHT Holdings managing director, Yap Mui Kee, acquired 52,100 shares of the company for a consideration of S$36,991. At 71.0 cents per share, this took her total interest in the manufacturer of high-quality wooden pallets, boxes, and crates from 14.79 per cent to 14.89 per cent.  
This followed her acquisitions of 17,700 shares at 70.0 cents per share on Mar 18 and 24,600 shares of at 69.1 cents per share on Mar 7.

Yap has over 35 years of experience in sales and marketing and plays a key role in exploring opportunities in new markets.  Inside Insights is a weekly column on The Business Times, read the original version.



HRnetGroup's largest shareholder raises stake

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Exchange (SGX SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a> recently launched a new sustainability/ESG index – the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iedge-ocbc-singapore-low-carbon-select-50-capped-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35795:1" rel="noopener">IEdge-OCBC Singapore Low Carbon Select 50 Capped Index (SGLC50CN INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>Whilst country-Specific carbon indices are often too narrow for index-linked products, they are invaluable as carbon performance benchmarks for climate change mitigation and planning.</li>
<li>The iEdge-OCBC index, along with the broad-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iedge-singapore-low-carbon-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35793:1" rel="noopener">iEdge Singapore Low Carbon Index (SGLCN INDEX)</a>, consistently outperformed (backcast) comparable indices, often with lower volatility.</li>
</ul>



Singapore Exchange (SGX SP) and OCBC (OCBC SP) recently launched a new sustainability/ESG index – the IEdge-OCBC Singapore Low Carbon Select 50 Capped Index (SGLC50CN INDEX).
Whilst country-Specific carbon indices are often too narrow for index-linked products, they are invaluable as carbon performance benchmarks for climate change mitigation and planning.
The iEdge-OCBC index, along with the broad-based iEdge Singapore Low Carbon Index (SGLCN INDEX), consistently outperformed (backcast) comparable indices, often with lower volatility.


SGX's New Low Carbon Index Outperformed Comparable Indices and With Less Volatility

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As concerns over China persist, Asia Ex-Japan managers are becoming more constructive on the ASEAN Region and appear amenable to increasing allocations.</li>
<li>Indonesia and Singapore are the largest country allocations, Indonesia/Vietnam the key overweights and Malaysia/Thailand the key underweights. Only 20.4% of managers have any Malaysia exposure at all.</li>
<li>Sea Ltd and Bank Central Asia are the key overweights in the region.  Recent activity has favoured Cisarua Mountain Dairy, Central Pattana Pub and Telekomunikasi Indonesia.</li>
</ul>


As concerns over China persist, Asia Ex-Japan managers are becoming more constructive on the ASEAN Region and appear amenable to increasing allocations.
Indonesia and Singapore are the largest country allocations, Indonesia/Vietnam the key overweights and Malaysia/Thailand the key underweights. Only 20.4% of managers have any Malaysia exposure at all.
Sea Ltd and Bank Central Asia are the key overweights in the region.  Recent activity has favoured Cisarua Mountain Dairy, Central Pattana Pub and Telekomunikasi Indonesia.


ASEAN Reversal.  Asia Ex-Japan Managers Raise Allocations

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Singapore is far less dependent on consumption than others in region</li>
<li>People can far better afford higher retail prices in Singapore vs Asean</li>
<li>Banks in Singapore can benefit from higher oil prices unlike others</li>
</ul>


Singapore is far less dependent on consumption than others in region
People can far better afford higher retail prices in Singapore vs Asean
Banks in Singapore can benefit from higher oil prices unlike others


Singapore

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

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DBS (DBS SP)

Standard Chartered - Nickel and Dimes

The surge in nickel prices and the wrong-way trade(s) will mean bank counter-party risk, with STAN being highlighted in reports. ROA risk can be...

Daniel Tabbush

HRnetGroup's largest shareholder raises stake

For the 5 trading sessions that spanned Mar 25 to 31, the Straits Times Index (STI) gained 0.3 per cent, while the FTSE China...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

SGX's New Low Carbon Index Outperformed Comparable Indices and With Less Volatility

SGX's new iEdge-OCBC Low Carbon index outperforms comparable indices, and with lower volatility – a testament to Singapore issuers' carbon...

Kyle Rudden

ASEAN Reversal. Asia Ex-Japan Managers Raise Allocations

As concerns over China persist, Asia Ex-Japan managers are becoming more constructive on the ASEAN Region and appear amenable to increasing...

Steven Holden

Singapore Shines With Asean Inflation

Singapore is far less dependent on private consumption for its economic growth than other countries in ASEAN. As such, Singapore's economy can be...

Daniel Tabbush

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52-week Range

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