Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

There are plenty of concerns for DBS, as well as peer Singapore banks. But we will keep the focus here on DBS.<ul><li>Firstly there is the bank’s China lending, where all is not well.</li><li>Second is the bank’s relatively high level of market risk, where regulations will make this more costly and where impairments can surprise.  </li><li>Thirdly there is energy, commodity, or oil-related lending, given the sharp drop in prices of late. </li><li>Fourthly, DBS in India is loss-making.</li><li>Finally, the bank is highly exposed to off-balance sheet risk.</li></ul>

There are plenty of concerns for DBS, as well as peer Singapore banks. But we will keep the focus here on DBS.Firstly there is the bank’s China lending, where all is not well.Second is the bank’s relatively high level of market risk, where regulations will make this more costly and where impairments can surprise.  Thirdly there is energy, commodity, or oil-related lending, given the sharp drop in prices of late. Fourthly, DBS in India is loss-making.Finally, the bank is highly exposed to off-balance sheet risk.

Freelance Research Analyst

Tay Hock Meng

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The latest 4Q2015 private housing flash estimates from Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed prices for overall private residential properties dipped by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (qoq), a smaller decline than the 1.3% qoq decline in 3Q2015. For the whole of 2015, private property prices dipped by 3.7%, and are smaller than the 4% decline in 2014. These numbers are increasingly showing a gradual recovery in private property prices in Singapore, but not all market observers have signalled that it is the end of the gloom and doom that dominates in the overall private property market since 2013.

The latest 4Q2015 private housing flash estimates from Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed prices for overall private residential properties dipped by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (qoq), a smaller decline than the 1.3% qoq decline in 3Q2015. For the whole of 2015, private property prices dipped by 3.7%, and are smaller than the 4% decline in 2014. These numbers are increasingly showing a gradual recovery in private property prices in Singapore, but not all market observers have signalled that it is the end of the gloom and doom that dominates in the overall private property market since 2013.

Is the Worst over for Private Residential Housing in Singapore

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

The latest list of confirmed and reserve industrial sites under the 1H2016 industrial government land sales (IGLS) programme  by Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) takes a look at the start of a trend of smaller increases of land allocated for industrialists. A total of six sites in the confirmed list and four sites in the reserve list totalling 12.24 ha is offered, as compared to ten confirmed sites and four reserve sites totalling 14.3 ha in 2H2015. In 1H2008, a total of 9.28 ha of land were released in the confirmed and reserve lists.

The latest list of confirmed and reserve industrial sites under the 1H2016 industrial government land sales (IGLS) programme  by Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) takes a look at the start of a trend of smaller increases of land allocated for industrialists. A total of six sites in the confirmed list and four sites in the reserve list totalling 12.24 ha is offered, as compared to ten confirmed sites and four reserve sites totalling 14.3 ha in 2H2015. In 1H2008, a total of 9.28 ha of land were released in the confirmed and reserve lists.

What Is in Store for 1H2016 Industrial Land Sales Programme

The latest release of the 1H2016 Government Land Sales (GLS) programme where four confirmed sites are offered for sale does not come as a surprise as there has been gradual declining trend in the number of land sites offered for land tender next year. Authorities are also trying to rein in on potential runaway private residential prices, and seek to manage the aspirations of many Singaporeans wanting to own private properties in Singapore.

The latest release of the 1H2016 Government Land Sales (GLS) programme where four confirmed sites are offered for sale does not come as a surprise as there has been gradual declining trend in the number of land sites offered for land tender next year. Authorities are also trying to rein in on potential runaway private residential prices, and seek to manage the aspirations of many Singaporeans wanting to own private properties in Singapore.

Government Still Offering EC Sites for the Latest 1H2016 GLS Programme

Singapore

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

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DBS (DBS SP)

A Myriad of Concerns for DBS

There are plenty of concerns for DBS, as well as peer Singapore banks. But we will keep the focus here on DBS. Firstly there is the bank’s China...

Daniel Tabbush

Is the Worst over for Private Residential Housing in Singapore

The latest 4Q2015 private housing flash estimates from Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed prices for overall private residential properties...

Tay Hock Meng

A Gradual NPL Cycle in Asia

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%,...

Daniel Tabbush

What Is in Store for 1H2016 Industrial Land Sales Programme

The latest list of confirmed and reserve industrial sites under the 1H2016 industrial government land sales (IGLS) programme by Singapore’s...

Tay Hock Meng

Government Still Offering EC Sites for the Latest 1H2016 GLS Programme

The latest release of the 1H2016 Government Land Sales (GLS) programme where four confirmed sites are offered for sale does not come as a surprise...

Tay Hock Meng

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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