Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.</li>
<li>This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.</li>
<li>I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. </li>
</ul>


Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.
This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.
I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. 


Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>'s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread widened from a low of 3.1% on 14 March to 7.0%. </li>
<li>The widening spread can be attributed to China SAMR approval timing, earnings risk, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)</a>’s material underperformance lowering the break price and a large fund liquidating positions. </li>
<li>The deal break risks remain low with the timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add. </li>
</ul>



Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)'s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread widened from a low of 3.1% on 14 March to 7.0%. 
The widening spread can be attributed to China SAMR approval timing, earnings risk, Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)’s material underperformance lowering the break price and a large fund liquidating positions. 
The deal break risks remain low with the timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add. 


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity

<ul>
<li>Every year in April there is an interesting phenomenon with TOPIX. It is what <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> calls "The Big April Basket." The TSE re-assesses Liquidity Factor Coefficients.</li>
<li>It also does a FFW change, and this year it has Phased Weight Reductions for those slowly leaving TOPIX and PWR re-inclusions for those identified last October as going back.</li>
<li>Janaghan had 18 "High Conviction" LF removals. All were hits. They are upweights. Then there are 34 changes to FFW coefficients.</li>
</ul>


Every year in April there is an interesting phenomenon with TOPIX. It is what Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA calls "The Big April Basket." The TSE re-assesses Liquidity Factor Coefficients.
It also does a FFW change, and this year it has Phased Weight Reductions for those slowly leaving TOPIX and PWR re-inclusions for those identified last October as going back.
Janaghan had 18 "High Conviction" LF removals. All were hits. They are upweights. Then there are 34 changes to FFW coefficients.


The TOPIX Big April Basket Flows:  ¥200bn a Side Including Many Multi-ADV Flows

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianlian-digitech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39940:1" rel="noopener">Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH)</a> launches a US$78 million IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intellicentrics-global-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40901:1" rel="noopener">IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sciclone-pharmaceuticals-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17351:1" rel="noopener">Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH) launches a US$78 million IPO.
Event-Driven developments: Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK), Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK). 


Weekly Deals Digest (24 Mar) - Shinko, C&F Logistics, JSR, IntelliCentrics, SciClone, Link Admin

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread has narrowed from a high of 10.4% to the current 4.2%. </li>
<li>The narrowing spread can be attributed to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> tender launch, which suggests likely China SAMR approval, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) </a>giving up recent gains. </li>
<li>Like JSR, we expect China SAMR to allow JIC to withdraw its Shinko merger control filing. There is a good chance the tender launches before the guided late August start.</li>
</ul>



Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread has narrowed from a high of 10.4% to the current 4.2%. 
The narrowing spread can be attributed to the JSR Corp (4185 JP) tender launch, which suggests likely China SAMR approval, and Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) giving up recent gains. 
Like JSR, we expect China SAMR to allow JIC to withdraw its Shinko merger control filing. There is a good chance the tender launches before the guided late August start.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender State of Play

Japan

Toppan Printing Co., Ltd. is a printing company that provides commercial and publication printing services. The Company also prints securities paper, packaging products, and electronic related products such as photomasks and colorfilters. Toppan Printing also produces inks and operates a text book publication business.

Dai Nippon Printing Co., Ltd. offers printing services for commercial and industrial use. The printing items include information media such as books, periodicals, and text books, as well as wrapping paper and containers, stationeries, and advertising medium. The Company provides design and production services as well. Dai Nippon Printing also produces soft drinks.

SECOM CO., LTD. provides comprehensive security services.  The Company provides on-line centralized security services, home security systems, and home medical services,

SOHGO SECURITY SERVICES CO., LTD. operates around the clock security services. The Company provides home and office security systems, an armored car security service, and a network security solution service.

SECOM Co., Ltd. provides comprehensive security services. The Company provides on-line centralized security, home security systems, and home medical services, It also provides insurance businesses as well as real estate services.

Park24 Co., Ltd. operates 24-hour automated parking garages, monthly parking lots, and parking lot administration.  The Company also sells parking lot equipment of gate-type and multistory-type such as park lock.

KOKUYO CO., LTD. manages Kokuyo group companies that produces and sells a vast line of stationery goods and office furniture through a domestic sales network as a holding company.  The group's products include magazine files, box binders, drawing tubes, desk chairs, lockers, and wall storage units.  Kokuyo also manufactures office automation equipment and computer supplies.

Japan Elevator Service Holdings Co. Ltd. offers elevator and escalator maintenance, inspection and renewal services.

Daiseki Co., Ltd. provides waste disposal services in Chubu area.  The Company uses high technology for oil sludge treatment and for recycling.  Daiseki also sells processing and lubricating oil for industrial use.

OKAMURA CORPORATION manufactures office furniture including desks, chairs, and shelves.  The Company offers comprehensive office systems such as partition walls with built-in air conditioners and underfloor wiring systems.  Okamura also develops material handling equipment and industrial machinery.

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. provides integrated, non-hazardous solid waste services throughout the eastern United States.  The Company provides collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services, generates steam, and manufactures finished products utilizing recyclable materials primarily throughout the eastern portion of the United States.

MSA Safety Incorporated develops, manufactures, and supplies safety products that protect people and facility infrastructures. The Company's core products include self-contained breathing apparatus, fixed gas and flame detection systems, portable gas detection instruments, head protection, and fall protection products. MSA Safety markets its products worldwide.

Mineral Resources Ltd. offers contract crushing services to the mining industry in Australia.  The Company serves gold, iron ore, tantalum, and coal companies.

Stericycle, Inc. provides regulated medical waste management services.  The Company offers waste collection, transportation, treatment, and disposal to customers in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, the United Kingdom and Ireland.

YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. provides global express services. The Company also provides general cargo warehousing, domestic air transport agency, car rental, supply chain management, and other related services throughout China..

Securitas AB sells products and services for the protection of homes, work places, and community. The Company's services include specialized guarding and mobile services, monitoring, and consulting and investigations. Securitas operates in Europe, North and South America, the Middle East, and Asia.

IAA Inc. retails automobiles. The Company offers buying and selling of trucks, passenger cars, and motorcycles, as well as provides insurance and car rental services. IAA serves customers worldwide.

The Brink's Company provides security services globally.  The Company provides secure transportation, cash logistics and other security-related services to banks and financial institutions, retailers, government agencies, mints, jewelers and other commercial operations around the world.

Clean Harbors, Inc. provides a variety of environmental remediation and industrial waste management services to customers in the United States and Puerto Rico.  The Company's services include treatment and disposal of hazardous and non-hazardous solid and liquid waste, surface remediation, groundwater restoration, waste packaging, as well as analytical testing and consulting.

Tetra Tech, Inc. provides specialized management consulting and technical services primarily in resource management, infrastructure, and communications. The Company's clients include a diverse base of public and private sector organizations.  Tetra Tech operates offices in the United States and internationally.

DAI NIPPON PRINTING CO., LTD. offers printing services for commercial and industrial use.  The printing items include information media such as books, periodicals, and text books, wrapping paper and containers, stationeries, and advertising medium.  The Company provides design and production services as well.  Dai Nippon Printing also produces soft drinks including Coca Cola.

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Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP)

Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

Earnings releases in tech will start to pick up the next few days, and while the market is open on the 29th then also on the 1st and 2nd, the 5-day...

Travis Lundy

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity

The deal break risks remain low, with the China SAMR timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add.

Arun George

The TOPIX Big April Basket Flows: ¥200bn a Side Including Many Multi-ADV Flows

The TOPIX Big April Basket is ¥200bn a side of flows - FFW changes, PWR cascading deletions, PWR unwinds, share count changes, Liquidity Factor...

Travis Lundy

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Mar) - Shinko, C&F Logistics, JSR, IntelliCentrics, SciClone, Link Admin

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Chilled and Frozen Logistics, JSR, Shinko Electric, IntelliCentrics, Sciclone Pharma,...

Arun George

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender State of Play

The JSR tender launch materially lowers the China approval risk. The gross spread was narrowed from a high of 10.4% to the current 4.2%. The tender...

Arun George

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