Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At end-January 2023 it became clear activist Elliott Management had set its sights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-nippon-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19388:1" rel="noopener">Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP)</a>. The stock popped and people got bullish.</li>
<li>I warned about the "complicated" nature of gains going forward <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dai-nippon-printing-7912-activism-results-going-forward-are-complicated" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. Three weeks later they announced details of including ¥100bn of buybacks per year for 3yrs. That's discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dai-nippon-printing-7912-whoop-there-it-is-100bn-buyback-in-a-year-300bn-in-3yrs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
<li>I rarely write bearishly about a huge buyback program but from next day open, over 1yr, total return has been 4.9%. Stage 2 starts 11 March with ¥50bn through end-Sep24. </li>
</ul>


At end-January 2023 it became clear activist Elliott Management had set its sights on Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP). The stock popped and people got bullish.
I warned about the "complicated" nature of gains going forward here. Three weeks later they announced details of including ¥100bn of buybacks per year for 3yrs. That's discussed here.
I rarely write bearishly about a huge buyback program but from next day open, over 1yr, total return has been 4.9%. Stage 2 starts 11 March with ¥50bn through end-Sep24. 


Dai-Nippon Printing (7912) - Whoomp There It Is! Part Deux

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Dai Nippon Printing’s announcement that it would double its RoE target in its next MTP was a pleasant surprise. </li>
<li>Together with saucy hints that future buybacks could be the biggest in its history this has propelled the stock to a post-2007 high. </li>
<li>We think Elliott has found an easy win here and consider this likely to end as a standout success for activism in Japan.</li>
</ul>


Dai Nippon Printing’s announcement that it would double its RoE target in its next MTP was a pleasant surprise. 
Together with saucy hints that future buybacks could be the biggest in its history this has propelled the stock to a post-2007 high. 
We think Elliott has found an easy win here and consider this likely to end as a standout success for activism in Japan.


Dai Nippon Printing – Activism On Easy Street

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.</li>
<li>The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.</li>
<li>In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.</li>
</ul>


Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.
The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.
In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.


JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." </li>
<li>We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.</li>
<li>Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.</li>
</ul>


Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." 
We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.


Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toppan-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11875:1" rel="noopener">Toppan Printing (7911 JP)</a> established a new <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/7911/tdnet/2283187/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Medium-Term Management Plan</a> with targets in May 2023. 8% ROE, PBR &gt;1.0x. More DX business. More management modernisation. More ESG. Mooooarrrrr!</li>
<li>They also promised capital measures: ¥100bn of buybacks over three years. Total shareholder return of 50%+ over three years. More progress in selling down cross-holdings. </li>
<li>Today the company reported better-than expected full-year revenues, OP, and Net Profit, added more to the buybacks, and shortened the buyback period to two years. Details matter.</li>
</ul>



Toppan Printing (7911 JP) established a new Medium-Term Management Plan with targets in May 2023. 8% ROE, PBR &gt;1.0x. More DX business. More management modernisation. More ESG. Mooooarrrrr!
They also promised capital measures: ¥100bn of buybacks over three years. Total shareholder return of 50%+ over three years. More progress in selling down cross-holdings. 
Today the company reported better-than expected full-year revenues, OP, and Net Profit, added more to the buybacks, and shortened the buyback period to two years. Details matter.


Toppan Printing (7911) Accelerates Buyback Pace and Amount; But Crossholder Sales Lurk

Japan

Toppan Printing Co., Ltd. is a printing company that provides commercial and publication printing services. The Company also prints securities paper, packaging products, and electronic related products such as photomasks and colorfilters. Toppan Printing also produces inks and operates a text book publication business.

Dai Nippon Printing Co., Ltd. offers printing services for commercial and industrial use. The printing items include information media such as books, periodicals, and text books, as well as wrapping paper and containers, stationeries, and advertising medium. The Company provides design and production services as well. Dai Nippon Printing also produces soft drinks.

SECOM CO., LTD. provides comprehensive security services.  The Company provides on-line centralized security services, home security systems, and home medical services,

SOHGO SECURITY SERVICES CO., LTD. operates around the clock security services. The Company provides home and office security systems, an armored car security service, and a network security solution service.

SECOM Co., Ltd. provides comprehensive security services. The Company provides on-line centralized security, home security systems, and home medical services, It also provides insurance businesses as well as real estate services.

Park24 Co., Ltd. operates 24-hour automated parking garages, monthly parking lots, and parking lot administration.  The Company also sells parking lot equipment of gate-type and multistory-type such as park lock.

KOKUYO CO., LTD. manages Kokuyo group companies that produces and sells a vast line of stationery goods and office furniture through a domestic sales network as a holding company.  The group's products include magazine files, box binders, drawing tubes, desk chairs, lockers, and wall storage units.  Kokuyo also manufactures office automation equipment and computer supplies.

Japan Elevator Service Holdings Co. Ltd. offers elevator and escalator maintenance, inspection and renewal services.

Daiseki Co., Ltd. provides waste disposal services in Chubu area.  The Company uses high technology for oil sludge treatment and for recycling.  Daiseki also sells processing and lubricating oil for industrial use.

OKAMURA CORPORATION manufactures office furniture including desks, chairs, and shelves.  The Company offers comprehensive office systems such as partition walls with built-in air conditioners and underfloor wiring systems.  Okamura also develops material handling equipment and industrial machinery.

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. provides integrated, non-hazardous solid waste services throughout the eastern United States.  The Company provides collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services, generates steam, and manufactures finished products utilizing recyclable materials primarily throughout the eastern portion of the United States.

MSA Safety Incorporated develops, manufactures, and supplies safety products that protect people and facility infrastructures. The Company's core products include self-contained breathing apparatus, fixed gas and flame detection systems, portable gas detection instruments, head protection, and fall protection products. MSA Safety markets its products worldwide.

Mineral Resources Ltd. offers contract crushing services to the mining industry in Australia.  The Company serves gold, iron ore, tantalum, and coal companies.

Stericycle, Inc. provides regulated medical waste management services.  The Company offers waste collection, transportation, treatment, and disposal to customers in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, the United Kingdom and Ireland.

YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. provides global express services. The Company also provides general cargo warehousing, domestic air transport agency, car rental, supply chain management, and other related services throughout China..

Securitas AB sells products and services for the protection of homes, work places, and community. The Company's services include specialized guarding and mobile services, monitoring, and consulting and investigations. Securitas operates in Europe, North and South America, the Middle East, and Asia.

IAA Inc. retails automobiles. The Company offers buying and selling of trucks, passenger cars, and motorcycles, as well as provides insurance and car rental services. IAA serves customers worldwide.

The Brink's Company provides security services globally.  The Company provides secure transportation, cash logistics and other security-related services to banks and financial institutions, retailers, government agencies, mints, jewelers and other commercial operations around the world.

Clean Harbors, Inc. provides a variety of environmental remediation and industrial waste management services to customers in the United States and Puerto Rico.  The Company's services include treatment and disposal of hazardous and non-hazardous solid and liquid waste, surface remediation, groundwater restoration, waste packaging, as well as analytical testing and consulting.

Tetra Tech, Inc. provides specialized management consulting and technical services primarily in resource management, infrastructure, and communications. The Company's clients include a diverse base of public and private sector organizations.  Tetra Tech operates offices in the United States and internationally.

DAI NIPPON PRINTING CO., LTD. offers printing services for commercial and industrial use.  The printing items include information media such as books, periodicals, and text books, wrapping paper and containers, stationeries, and advertising medium.  The Company provides design and production services as well.  Dai Nippon Printing also produces soft drinks including Coca Cola.

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Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP)

Dai-Nippon Printing (7912) - Whoomp There It Is! Part Deux

A year ago, DNP promised ¥300bn of buybacks over 3yrs. They did ¥100bn in 1yr. Now they've announced ¥50bn for the next 6mos. But there is a lot of...

Travis Lundy

Dai Nippon Printing – Activism On Easy Street

Elliott's investment in Dai Nippon Printing looks to us like an excellent selection for its high probability of success and the trade is already...

Mio Kato

JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

JAPAN GOVERNANCE: There is a buyback story coming. It will be big. Bigger than the past year or two, and it will continue. What to buy?

Travis Lundy

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight $FEZ $STOXX; Europe Still Bullish From a Price Perspective; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI $EEM; Supports...

Vermilion Research

Toppan Printing (7911) Accelerates Buyback Pace and Amount; But Crossholder Sales Lurk

Toppan had good earnings from securities sales. OP should rise this year. Good. They upped the buyback amount and pace, dramatically. Also good....

Travis Lundy

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