Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Bull vs Bears swings as SPX closes flat; TSLA back on track with beat; ASML comforts Semi bulls; Global Shipping Alliance Crumbles, Negative Containers. </li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 129.57; Japan Bond investors flee US; TSE to end transitional listing; Reg Bank Consol; Pressure for JP Shippers ? Cyberagent - better future?</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. We look at the big decarbonization push via carbon capture, and see MHI (7011) as the biggest Japan beneficiary. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Bull vs Bears swings as SPX closes flat; TSLA back on track with beat; ASML comforts Semi bulls; Global Shipping Alliance Crumbles, Negative Containers. 
JAPAN.  NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 129.57; Japan Bond investors flee US; TSE to end transitional listing; Reg Bank Consol; Pressure for JP Shippers ? Cyberagent - better future?
DAILY NUGGET. We look at the big decarbonization push via carbon capture, and see MHI (7011) as the biggest Japan beneficiary. 


Good Morning Japan |Off the Lows to Flat as ASML, TSLA Beats; Global Shipping Alliance Crumbles

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a> reported 1QFY09/2023 results. Revenue declined 2.1% YoY to JPY167.6bn (vs consensus JPY176.1bn) while OP turned negative JPY1.25bn (vs consensus OP of JPY4.1bn.</li>
<li>CA’s largest investment to-date was for FIFA 2022 but top line growth has largely been in line with previous quarter. WAU have dropped to pre-FIFA levels.</li>
<li>Though AbemaTV’s monetisation strategy seems to work, the growth prospects for other two segments are concerning and likely to drag down the consolidated performance.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 1QFY09/2023 results. Revenue declined 2.1% YoY to JPY167.6bn (vs consensus JPY176.1bn) while OP turned negative JPY1.25bn (vs consensus OP of JPY4.1bn.
CA’s largest investment to-date was for FIFA 2022 but top line growth has largely been in line with previous quarter. WAU have dropped to pre-FIFA levels.
Though AbemaTV’s monetisation strategy seems to work, the growth prospects for other two segments are concerning and likely to drag down the consolidated performance.


CyberAgent 1QFY09/2023: Earnings Miss, Struggling Gaming and Huge FIFA Cost Add to the Woes

<ul>
<li>CyberAgent Q1 loss on one-off expenses from World Cup streaming. We see Q1 as a bottom this fiscal year</li>
<li>Share price already discounted weak FY9/23 guidance last October and focus is now on recovery </li>
<li>The World Cup was a success for the Japanese National side and for Abema</li>
</ul>


CyberAgent Q1 loss on one-off expenses from World Cup streaming. We see Q1 as a bottom this fiscal year
Share price already discounted weak FY9/23 guidance last October and focus is now on recovery 
The World Cup was a success for the Japanese National side and for Abema


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dena-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:747:1" rel="noopener">DeNA (2432 JP)</a> announced in June a buyback programme to buy up to ¥15bn of stock over the next nine months. They are two-thirds the way through. </li>
<li>At current pace, they should finish by end-Jan or early Feb, then cancel 8mm shares, leading to a small TOPIX selldown likely in March or April. </li>
<li>The company remains cash and securities rich (net cash, after-tax value of securities, and equity affiliates are 100% of market cap). And growth lines will slowly claw their way positive.</li>
</ul>



DeNA (2432 JP) announced in June a buyback programme to buy up to ¥15bn of stock over the next nine months. They are two-thirds the way through. 
At current pace, they should finish by end-Jan or early Feb, then cancel 8mm shares, leading to a small TOPIX selldown likely in March or April. 
The company remains cash and securities rich (net cash, after-tax value of securities, and equity affiliates are 100% of market cap). And growth lines will slowly claw their way positive.


DeNA (2432) Buyback - Accretive on a Low Leverage Business Which Will Grow In Time

<ul>
<li>
Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US TO KEEP ABREAST.
</li>
<li>
OVERSEAS: Stocks consolidated ahead of Jobs; UST yeild down, USD weaker; Fed's favorite inflation indicator slows; China showing COVID-19 flexibility; TESLA delivers 1st Semi Truck 
</li>
<li>
JAPAN: World Cup: Samurai Blues slay another European giant defeating Spain.  This is the news in Japan today; Foreigners are now buyers in Japan; KDDI hooks up with Starlink 
</li>
</ul>



Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US TO KEEP ABREAST.


OVERSEAS: Stocks consolidated ahead of Jobs; UST yeild down, USD weaker; Fed's favorite inflation indicator slows; China showing COVID-19 flexibility; TESLA delivers 1st Semi Truck  


JAPAN: World Cup: Samurai Blues slay another European giant defeating Spain.  This is the news in Japan today; Foreigners are now buyers in Japan; KDDI hooks up with Starlink 



Good Morning Japan | Stocks Holds Gains Head of Jobs; Samurai Blues - Giant Killers (Again !)

Japan

CyberAgent, Inc. operates blog media website, Ameba.  The Company also operates internet advertising agency, foreign exchange trading website, and creates PC and mobile contents such as advertisements and games. CyberAgent invests in companies with internet related business.

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CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)

Good Morning Japan |Off the Lows to Flat as ASML, TSLA Beats; Global Shipping Alliance Crumbles

JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 129.57; Japan Bond investors flee US; TSE to end transitional listing; Reg Bank Consol; Pressure for JP...

Mark Chadwick

CyberAgent 1QFY09/2023: Earnings Miss, Struggling Gaming and Huge FIFA Cost Add to the Woes

Despite huge cost for FIFA, AbemaTV revenue growth was nothing extraordinary. Weekly Users have already dropped to pre-FIFA levels. Even if AbemaTV...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

CyberAgent (4751) | World Cup Winners

We remain bullish on CyberAgent despite weak Q1 results. The World Cup has given a lasting boost to Abema TV. We expect earnings to trend higher...

Mark Chadwick

DeNA (2432) Buyback - Accretive on a Low Leverage Business Which Will Grow In Time

DeNA (2432) is a nice pot of assets with a small business attached. It should be better. It appears to be on its way to getting better. It is very...

Travis Lundy

Good Morning Japan | Stocks Holds Gains Head of Jobs; Samurai Blues - Giant Killers (Again !)

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US TO...

Mark Chadwick

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