Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a> reported 1QFY09/2025 results today. 1Q revenues beat consensus but reported OP fell below consensus due to weak gaming margins.</li>
<li>The key highlight of the quarter was the strong results of the Media business whose revenues saw strong growth with strengthened profitability.</li>
<li>Though game earnings were slightly weak during 1Q, we would not be too worried as app analysis data reveals that the segment is off to a strong start in 2QFY09/2025.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 1QFY09/2025 results today. 1Q revenues beat consensus but reported OP fell below consensus due to weak gaming margins.
The key highlight of the quarter was the strong results of the Media business whose revenues saw strong growth with strengthened profitability.
Though game earnings were slightly weak during 1Q, we would not be too worried as app analysis data reveals that the segment is off to a strong start in 2QFY09/2025.


CyberAgent 1Q: Media Business Continues to Show Solid Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a>  reported 4Q and full-year FY09/2024 results yesterday. 4Q revenues beat guidance but reported OP fell below consensus due to a one-time loss of Winticket.</li>
<li>All three business segments have seen strong improvement but guidance for FY09/2025E is weak which we think was too conservative.</li>
<li>The newly launched Abema Premium with Ads plan and newly launched game IPs should drive growth and we expect CA to upgrade its guidance going forward.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)  reported 4Q and full-year FY09/2024 results yesterday. 4Q revenues beat guidance but reported OP fell below consensus due to a one-time loss of Winticket.
All three business segments have seen strong improvement but guidance for FY09/2025E is weak which we think was too conservative.
The newly launched Abema Premium with Ads plan and newly launched game IPs should drive growth and we expect CA to upgrade its guidance going forward.


High Conviction - CyberAgent: Market Overreacts to Conservative Guidance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a> (CA) is a Japan-based media and entertainment company offering media, internet advertising, smart games and investment development businesses in Japan.</li>
<li>The gaming business of the company has collapsed with the slowdown of hit title UMA MUSUME while titles released after UMA MUSUME have failed to perform satisfactorily.</li>
<li>Profitability of Internet advertising and media are expected recover and seems that worst is over for the games business as several titles are slated for release in the near future.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) (CA) is a Japan-based media and entertainment company offering media, internet advertising, smart games and investment development businesses in Japan.
The gaming business of the company has collapsed with the slowdown of hit title UMA MUSUME while titles released after UMA MUSUME have failed to perform satisfactorily.
Profitability of Internet advertising and media are expected recover and seems that worst is over for the games business as several titles are slated for release in the near future.


2024 High Conviction – CyberAgent: Worst Seems to Be Over

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a>  reported 3QFY09/24 results yesterday. Both revenue and OP grew YoY, while revenue beat consensus marginally, OP beat consensus by a huge margin.</li>
<li>All three business segments showed strong recovery with notable improvement in gaming business as newly released titles perform well including the newly released UMA MUSUME: Pretty Derby movie.</li>
<li>Media business reported OP for the second consecutive quarter and the company has plans to further strengthen monetisation around AbemaTV.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)  reported 3QFY09/24 results yesterday. Both revenue and OP grew YoY, while revenue beat consensus marginally, OP beat consensus by a huge margin.
All three business segments showed strong recovery with notable improvement in gaming business as newly released titles perform well including the newly released UMA MUSUME: Pretty Derby movie.
Media business reported OP for the second consecutive quarter and the company has plans to further strengthen monetisation around AbemaTV.


High Conviction 2024 – CyberAgent: Strong Recovery Across All Three Business Segments

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, CVC announced a deal to buy out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>. It is agreed and supported by management and the Board. </li>
<li>The shareholder register on this stock is wide open. It is not burdened by crossholders. It IS burdened by 7 large active holders who have 55%. </li>
<li>Those holders may complain about the process, the transparency, and the low price. This could be a target for an activist or a strategic overbidder.</li>
</ul>


Today, CVC announced a deal to buy out Macromill, Inc (3978 JP). It is agreed and supported by management and the Board. 
The shareholder register on this stock is wide open. It is not burdened by crossholders. It IS burdened by 7 large active holders who have 55%. 
Those holders may complain about the process, the transparency, and the low price. This could be a target for an activist or a strategic overbidder.


CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) - Wrong Price, Wrong Register - Expect Activism or An Overbid

Japan

CyberAgent, Inc. operates blog media website, Ameba.  The Company also operates internet advertising agency, foreign exchange trading website, and creates PC and mobile contents such as advertisements and games. CyberAgent invests in companies with internet related business.

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CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)

CyberAgent 1Q: Media Business Continues to Show Solid Growth

CA's 1Q revenues beat consensus but OP fell below. Key highlight was the stellar performance of the Media business. Though game earnings were...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

High Conviction - CyberAgent: Market Overreacts to Conservative Guidance

CA's FY09/2025E guidance seems too conservative. Newly launched Abema Premium with Ads plan similar to Netflix (in 2022) should drive user and...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

2024 High Conviction – CyberAgent: Worst Seems to Be Over

We expect Internet Ad's profitability to improve and Media to start making profits in FY2024E. Games can't go down further as new releases should...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

High Conviction 2024 – CyberAgent: Strong Recovery Across All Three Business Segments

CyberAgent Inc reported strong 3QFY09/24 results with revenue and OP beating consensus. New game titles continue to perform well while Media...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) - Wrong Price, Wrong Register - Expect Activism or An Overbid

The Macromill (3978) Tender Offer ends next week on the 26th. So far it has not traded below terms a single time, and hasn't traded within 1% of...

Travis Lundy

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CyberAgent 1Q: Media Business Continues to Show Solid Growth

CA's 1Q revenues beat consensus but OP fell below. Key highlight was the stellar performance of the Media business. Though game earnings were...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

High Conviction - CyberAgent: Market Overreacts to Conservative Guidance

CA's FY09/2025E guidance seems too conservative. Newly launched Abema Premium with Ads plan similar to Netflix (in 2022) should drive user and...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

2024 High Conviction – CyberAgent: Worst Seems to Be Over

We expect Internet Ad's profitability to improve and Media to start making profits in FY2024E. Games can't go down further as new releases should...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

High Conviction 2024 – CyberAgent: Strong Recovery Across All Three Business Segments

​CyberAgent Inc reported strong 3QFY09/24 results with revenue and OP beating consensus. New game titles continue to perform well while Media...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) - Wrong Price, Wrong Register - Expect Activism or An Overbid

The Macromill (3978) Tender Offer ends next week on the 26th. So far it has not traded below terms a single time, and hasn't traded within 1% of...

Travis Lundy

CyberAgent Inc reported strong 3QFY09/24 results with revenue and OP beating consensus. New game titles continue to perform well while Media...