Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

WTI trendline resistance represents the next high conviction sell zone that targets lower wedge support near 58/60 and long trade set up.70.50 to 71 is the ideal short level for WTI but worth picking at the 69 resistance level in the event we fade early. Barring a hard decline then look to re cycle near 70+. 71.20 and 72 are key resistance levels and our risk pivot.Hurricane Ida should lend support for oil to test the trendline barrier.Well behaved descending wedges tend to be corrective patterns and the next slide toward the 58 support will set up a long in oil to test wedge resistance that will come in near the 67 level with time translation. Clearing wedge resistance would open the way to re test the macro barrier at 76/77 in the later part of Q4.

WTI trendline resistance represents the next high conviction sell zone that targets lower wedge support near 58/60 and long trade set up.70.50 to 71 is the ideal short level for WTI but worth picking at the 69 resistance level in the event we fade early. Barring a hard decline then look to re cycle near 70+. 71.20 and 72 are key resistance levels and our risk pivot.Hurricane Ida should lend support for oil to test the trendline barrier.Well behaved descending wedges tend to be corrective patterns and the next slide toward the 58 support will set up a long in oil to test wedge resistance that will come in near the 67 level with time translation. Clearing wedge resistance would open the way to re test the macro barrier at 76/77 in the later part of Q4.

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

In Asia the market that still looks attractive is India’s Nifty as it trades near the trend highs. Previous examples of a rally and breakouts on the Nifty Index saw the market move more than 10% from the base. Since we started from a recent low of 15,513, we could expect at least 17,064 if not the 17,400 area before seeing a consolidation or a meaningful pullback.Such a move coupled with USDINR looking like it could make it to the base of the range - approximately 72.50 - would put the Nifty in USD terms at 240 which is still 7% above current levels.Indeed, it might even be in India’s interest to see a slightly stronger currency given the trade deficit and the rising Oil price.

In Asia the market that still looks attractive is India’s Nifty as it trades near the trend highs. Previous examples of a rally and breakouts on the Nifty Index saw the market move more than 10% from the base. Since we started from a recent low of 15,513, we could expect at least 17,064 if not the 17,400 area before seeing a consolidation or a meaningful pullback.Such a move coupled with USDINR looking like it could make it to the base of the range - approximately 72.50 - would put the Nifty in USD terms at 240 which is still 7% above current levels.Indeed, it might even be in India’s interest to see a slightly stronger currency given the trade deficit and the rising Oil price.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration / Technical Analysis

Weak market dynamics continue to be counterbalanced by the fact that there is an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weakest Sectors such as Energy (XLE, XOP, RYE) and Transportation (IYT, XTN, JETS) are holding above key supports. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.Charts highlighted: XOP, JETS, S&amp;P 500, IWM, IWC, WTI Crude Oil, Copper, US dollar, CMCSA, CHTR, LBRDA, AMT, SBAC, ACN, INFY, EQIX, WIT, CTSH, IT, WM, RSG, WCN, and ROL

Weak market dynamics continue to be counterbalanced by the fact that there is an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weakest Sectors such as Energy (XLE, XOP, RYE) and Transportation (IYT, XTN, JETS) are holding above key supports. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.Charts highlighted: XOP, JETS, S&amp;P 500, IWM, IWC, WTI Crude Oil, Copper, US dollar, CMCSA, CHTR, LBRDA, AMT, SBAC, ACN, INFY, EQIX, WIT, CTSH, IT, WM, RSG, WCN, and ROL

U.S. Equity Index and Sector Breakdowns Remain Absent; Buying Communications & Services Stocks

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

The troika of a festering Delta wave, a slew of weak July macro-economic data and the Fed signalling plans to begin tapering its asset purchases by the end of this year proved lethal for crude in the week to August 20. Brent futures notched their longest losing streak since February 2018 with a cumulative slump of nearly 9% over seven trading sessions at Friday's settle. There is something the markets haven’t yet noticed or paid heed to, but is evident if you look closely at the global data on the Delta wave – it is starting to plateau! China appears to be on the cusp of squashing its month-old Delta wave. And though cases as well as hospitalisations and deaths are continuing to climb in the US, they remain concentrated in parts of the southern states and a return to Covid-era restrictions on mobility and non-essential businesses is all but ruled out.And let us not forget OPEC+. It is unlikely to stand by and watch crude in a tailspin on expectations of the market swinging into oversupply. The alliance’s 400,000 b/d monthly supply boost is not cast in stone.All in, we think much of Brent’s 16% decline from the 32-month highs notched on July 5 may be justified for the time being, but we wouldn’t bet on a continued slide.

The troika of a festering Delta wave, a slew of weak July macro-economic data and the Fed signalling plans to begin tapering its asset purchases by the end of this year proved lethal for crude in the week to August 20. Brent futures notched their longest losing streak since February 2018 with a cumulative slump of nearly 9% over seven trading sessions at Friday's settle. There is something the markets haven’t yet noticed or paid heed to, but is evident if you look closely at the global data on the Delta wave – it is starting to plateau! China appears to be on the cusp of squashing its month-old Delta wave. And though cases as well as hospitalisations and deaths are continuing to climb in the US, they remain concentrated in parts of the southern states and a return to Covid-era restrictions on mobility and non-essential businesses is all but ruled out.And let us not forget OPEC+. It is unlikely to stand by and watch crude in a tailspin on expectations of the market swinging into oversupply. The alliance’s 400,000 b/d monthly supply boost is not cast in stone.All in, we think much of Brent’s 16% decline from the 32-month highs notched on July 5 may be justified for the time being, but we wouldn’t bet on a continued slide.

Weekly Oil Views: In a Cauldron of Delta Wave, Fed Tapering

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

WTI Sell Levels

WTI trendline resistance represents the next high conviction sell zone that targets lower wedge support near 58/60 and long trade set up.

Thomas Schroeder

India Markets Refreshed

India's Nifty is still in an uptrend and looks even more attractive in USD terms as USDINR threatens to take out supports.

Shyam Devani

U.S. Equity Index and Sector Breakdowns Remain Absent; Buying Communications & Services Stocks

Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall. Charts highlighted: XOP, JETS, S&P 500, IWM, IWC,...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Oil Views: In a Cauldron of Delta Wave, Fed Tapering

Crude crashed by 9% last week. But we wouldn't bet on a continued freefall. The latest global Delta wave shows signs of plateauing and OPEC+ will...

Vandana Hari

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research

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