Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and physical resistance at the 53 trendline barrier.This is an undercurrent not apparent in the DXY or USD weakness in Asia (risk-on).USD/BRL macro bullish flat may need more time but is setting up for a macro USD breakout higher. USD/ZAR bull triangle also taking shape.EEM relative chart due to break lower vs SPX and must see varying degrees of USD strength that will stems from BRL and ZAR sensitivity.

We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and physical resistance at the 53 trendline barrier.This is an undercurrent not apparent in the DXY or USD weakness in Asia (risk-on).USD/BRL macro bullish flat may need more time but is setting up for a macro USD breakout higher. USD/ZAR bull triangle also taking shape.EEM relative chart due to break lower vs SPX and must see varying degrees of USD strength that will stems from BRL and ZAR sensitivity.

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

In recent weeks, we have said the following about crude’s energy crisis rally:<ul type="circle">
<li>Crude is riding on the coattails of gas and coal shortages and price spikes.</li>
<li>A colder-than-normal winter would be the fervent wish of punters who have amassed length in the energy markets but can’t be promised beyond a reasonable degree of probability by the best of weather forecasters.</li>
<li>There could be a lot of speculative froth in crude, thanks to its extensive suite of derivatives products, serving as a proxy for the relatively sparse coal and gas markets.</li>
</ul>We stand by all of it. But one thing has changed in our perspective in recent days: We have suspended disbelief in crude’s incessant rally.All the potential pressure relief valves remain shut and it is increasingly looking like the energy crunch could drag on for weeks. Even if a milder winter provides some relief, it may be temporary and localised, except in the unlikely event of warmer weather across all of the northern hemisphere. Markets don’t always follow logic. Especially when they are being driven by sentiment, speculation and frenzy. Better buckle up for a continuing wild ride!

In recent weeks, we have said the following about crude’s energy crisis rally:
Crude is riding on the coattails of gas and coal shortages and price spikes.
A colder-than-normal winter would be the fervent wish of punters who have amassed length in the energy markets but can’t be promised beyond a reasonable degree of probability by the best of weather forecasters.
There could be a lot of speculative froth in crude, thanks to its extensive suite of derivatives products, serving as a proxy for the relatively sparse coal and gas markets.
We stand by all of it. But one thing has changed in our perspective in recent days: We have suspended disbelief in crude’s incessant rally.All the potential pressure relief valves remain shut and it is increasingly looking like the energy crunch could drag on for weeks. Even if a milder winter provides some relief, it may be temporary and localised, except in the unlikely event of warmer weather across all of the northern hemisphere. Markets don’t always follow logic. Especially when they are being driven by sentiment, speculation and frenzy. Better buckle up for a continuing wild ride!

Weekly Oil Views: Prolonged Energy Crisis May Sustain Crude's Bullish Juggernaut

Just when crude’s relentless rally appeared to be running out of steam, it got a fresh injection of bullish sentiment last week. ICE Brent futures and NYMEX WTI settled at fresh three- and seven-year highs on Friday. The International Energy Agency estimates a 500,000 b/d boost in global oil demand from September through Q1 2022 on fuel switching. The IEA, as well as OPEC and the US Energy Information Administration, in their closely-watched monthly market reports, upgraded global oil demand estimates for the fourth quarter of this year.Providing bulls further ammunition, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman and his UAE counterpart Suhail al-Mazrouei, participating in a panel discussion at the Russian Energy Week in Moscow, rejected the need for OPEC+ to pump more oil. “We should look way beyond the tip of our noses,” ABS said, noting that oil stocks are expected to see substantial builds in 2022.But looking squarely at the tip of their noses is exactly what the frantic buyers of crude were doing, expecting a much bigger shortfall in supply of the liquid fuel in the coming months as winter boosts electricity demand even as gas and coal shortages persist in Europe and China.President Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready to supply more gas to Europe, but hadn’t been asked to do so! Meanwhile, European leaders were preoccupied in drawing up a plan to cushion the blow of high gas and power prices on industries and consumers.We realized we haven't mentioned “Covid” in our weekly insights at least for the past couple of weeks! It doesn’t mean the pandemic is gone, of course, but it does seem to have retreated from the headlines and market chatter. If there are no more hurdles like the Delta wave this summer, the developed world and major developing economies, with their high vaccination rates, may finally step into the post-Covid era. That suggests continued recovery in mobility and oil consumption.But we still think the bullish oil narrative is discounting a major downside risk to demand – the headwinds of inflation and stubborn supply chain snarls dampening economic recovery, especially industrial activity and consumer sentiment.

Just when crude’s relentless rally appeared to be running out of steam, it got a fresh injection of bullish sentiment last week. ICE Brent futures and NYMEX WTI settled at fresh three- and seven-year highs on Friday. The International Energy Agency estimates a 500,000 b/d boost in global oil demand from September through Q1 2022 on fuel switching. The IEA, as well as OPEC and the US Energy Information Administration, in their closely-watched monthly market reports, upgraded global oil demand estimates for the fourth quarter of this year.Providing bulls further ammunition, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman and his UAE counterpart Suhail al-Mazrouei, participating in a panel discussion at the Russian Energy Week in Moscow, rejected the need for OPEC+ to pump more oil. “We should look way beyond the tip of our noses,” ABS said, noting that oil stocks are expected to see substantial builds in 2022.But looking squarely at the tip of their noses is exactly what the frantic buyers of crude were doing, expecting a much bigger shortfall in supply of the liquid fuel in the coming months as winter boosts electricity demand even as gas and coal shortages persist in Europe and China.President Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready to supply more gas to Europe, but hadn’t been asked to do so! Meanwhile, European leaders were preoccupied in drawing up a plan to cushion the blow of high gas and power prices on industries and consumers.We realized we haven't mentioned “Covid” in our weekly insights at least for the past couple of weeks! It doesn’t mean the pandemic is gone, of course, but it does seem to have retreated from the headlines and market chatter. If there are no more hurdles like the Delta wave this summer, the developed world and major developing economies, with their high vaccination rates, may finally step into the post-Covid era. That suggests continued recovery in mobility and oil consumption.But we still think the bullish oil narrative is discounting a major downside risk to demand – the headwinds of inflation and stubborn supply chain snarls dampening economic recovery, especially industrial activity and consumer sentiment. 

Weekly Oil Views: Sentiment Spurs Prices Higher Even as Fundamentals Remain Steady

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

In late August Oil showed signs that a rise towards $85 could be seen. That target has effectively been met, thus encouraging a more neutral stance in the near term, especially as major levels around $87-$90 are just overheadHowever, this does not apply to the wider commodities space. Copper has rallied through key levels pointing to the trend highs again. The London Metals Exchange Index is already making new trend highs and will soon to make all-time highs.As a consequence, even though there might be some ‘relief’ in the energy space, the rise in metals prices are likely to keep any degree of inflation concerns in place.

In late August Oil showed signs that a rise towards $85 could be seen. That target has effectively been met, thus encouraging a more neutral stance in the near term, especially as major levels around $87-$90 are just overheadHowever, this does not apply to the wider commodities space. Copper has rallied through key levels pointing to the trend highs again. The London Metals Exchange Index is already making new trend highs and will soon to make all-time highs.As a consequence, even though there might be some ‘relief’ in the energy space, the rise in metals prices are likely to keep any degree of inflation concerns in place.

WTI showing signs of a blow off rise as we are due to clear our rally PT at 81 and reach for the 84-85 projection target. The speed of the rise may also mean that a future pullback will be of an aggressive nature.For now, we like buying a dip near trendline support at 77.XLE long from 48 is gaining traction and breaking out out above the 55 resistance (a fresh long signal).We have been bullish from the 71 zone on the back of the breakout of the bull wedge formation.

WTI showing signs of a blow off rise as we are due to clear our rally PT at 81 and reach for the 84-85 projection target. The speed of the rise may also mean that a future pullback will be of an aggressive nature.For now, we like buying a dip near trendline support at 77.XLE long from 48 is gaining traction and breaking out out above the 55 resistance (a fresh long signal).We have been bullish from the 71 zone on the back of the breakout of the bull wedge formation.

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

TRY Bleed into EEM

We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and...

Thomas Schroeder

Weekly Oil Views: Prolonged Energy Crisis May Sustain Crude's Bullish Juggernaut

We have suspended disbelief in crude's rally on the coattails of the coal and gas crunch wracking global energy markets. Prices may continue...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Sentiment Spurs Prices Higher Even as Fundamentals Remain Steady

Natural gas and coal shortages remained the same last week, but a few political comments, rhetoric and forecasts boosted speculative buying of oil....

Vandana Hari

Oil Target Met but Metals on the Up

Brent Crude has effectively met the $85 target with major levels just overhead. While some relief may be seen here, Metals are moving up which...

Shyam Devani

WTI Blow off Rise

WTI showing signs of a blow off rise as we are due to clear our rally PT at 81 and reach for the 84-85 projection target. The speed of the rise is...

Thomas Schroeder

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