Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Crude has recouped a little over 50% of the Omicron-induced losses as fears of the worst-case scenario recede.</li>
<li>Our analysis leads us to a Mildly Bullish sentiment for the near-term and a Mildly Bearish sentiment. </li>
<li>We lay out the major bullish and bearish factors taken into account and explain how we arrived at the above conclusion.</li>
</ul>


Crude has recouped a little over 50% of the Omicron-induced losses as fears of the worst-case scenario recede.
Our analysis leads us to a Mildly Bullish sentiment for the near-term and a Mildly Bearish sentiment. 
We lay out the major bullish and bearish factors taken into account and explain how we arrived at the above conclusion.


Bulls & Bears: Immediate and Short-Term View on Oil Prices

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics have mildly deteriorated in recent weeks on concerns over less accommodative monetary policy and the Omicron variant.</li>
<li>Despite recent deterioration, critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes, and our global outlook remains neutral as we continue to expect more consolidation and mixed markets.</li>
<li>Growth continues to outperform relative to value. Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics have mildly deteriorated in recent weeks on concerns over less accommodative monetary policy and the Omicron variant.
Despite recent deterioration, critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes, and our global outlook remains neutral as we continue to expect more consolidation and mixed markets.
Growth continues to outperform relative to value. Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary.


Add To Growth On This Pullback; Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The false breakout in the Russell 2000 (IWM) tells us that the mixed market environment is back, and we no longer see a broad-based bull market.</li>
<li>Key supports: 4545 on S&amp;P 500, $383 on NDX (QQQ), $208 on Russell 2000 (IWM), $135 on MicroCaps (IWC), $76.50 on MSCI EAFE (EFA), $54 on MSCI ACWI exUS (ACWX)</li>
<li>If supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. However, if supports start to break we would turn bearish as we would expect a more significant correction.</li>
</ul>


The false breakout in the Russell 2000 (IWM) tells us that the mixed market environment is back, and we no longer see a broad-based bull market.
Key supports: 4545 on S&amp;P 500, $383 on NDX (QQQ), $208 on Russell 2000 (IWM), $135 on MicroCaps (IWC), $76.50 on MSCI EAFE (EFA), $54 on MSCI ACWI exUS (ACWX)
If supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. However, if supports start to break we would turn bearish as we would expect a more significant correction.


U.S. Equity Strategy: Major Indexes Testing Critical Supports; Buying Consumer Discretionary Stocks

<ul>
<li>The OPEC/non-OPEC alliance, by staying with its 400,000 b/d monthly supply increment plan for January, essentially refused to buy into the market's panic over Omicron.</li>
<li>At its ministerial meeting on Dec 2, OPEC+ also pledged to act swiftly (to curtail output) if global demand does come under threat over the coming days/weeks.</li>
<li>We expect crude to grind higher albeit through continued volatility as the Omicron picture becomes clearer. Brent could return to mid- to high-70s if the threat is medium to low.</li>
</ul>


The OPEC/non-OPEC alliance, by staying with its 400,000 b/d monthly supply increment plan for January, essentially refused to buy into the market's panic over Omicron.
At its ministerial meeting on Dec 2, OPEC+ also pledged to act swiftly (to curtail output) if global demand does come under threat over the coming days/weeks.
We expect crude to grind higher albeit through continued volatility as the Omicron picture becomes clearer. Brent could return to mid- to high-70s if the threat is medium to low.


Weekly Oil Views: OPEC+ Calm Rescues Crude from Omicron-Induced Panic Selling

<ul>
<li>Markets convulsed with fear over the Omicron variant, a new coronavirus strain with numerous mutations, on Fri. Crude plunged nearly 13%.</li>
<li>Oil demand fears are justified but crude's latest sell-off may be overdone. We expect a modest price recovery, especially if OPEC+ pauses its output increments.</li>
<li>The "US plus five" collaborative SPR release announcement left the market underwhelmed. But it has raised some prickly policy questions for the collaborators.</li>
</ul>


Markets convulsed with fear over the Omicron variant, a new coronavirus strain with numerous mutations, on Fri. Crude plunged nearly 13%.
Oil demand fears are justified but crude's latest sell-off may be overdone. We expect a modest price recovery, especially if OPEC+ pauses its output increments.
The "US plus five" collaborative SPR release announcement left the market underwhelmed. But it has raised some prickly policy questions for the collaborators.


Weekly Oil Views: Resurgent Covid May Prompt Pause in OPEC+ Supply Hikes

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Bulls & Bears: Immediate and Short-Term View on Oil Prices

A succinct analysis of the bullish and bearish factors we see in the oil markets over the next several days and three months, and our conclusion of...

Vandana Hari

Add To Growth On This Pullback; Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary

Growth continues to outperform relative to value, shown by the intact uptrend on the MSCI ACWI ex-US Growth vs. Value ratio. We highlight...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Major Indexes Testing Critical Supports; Buying Consumer Discretionary Stocks

Market dynamics have deteriorated along with the major averages, and many are testing critical supports; as long as supports hold we expect more...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Oil Views: OPEC+ Calm Rescues Crude from Omicron-Induced Panic Selling

The oil market has been factoring in the worst-case scenario on Omicron. The OPEC+ ministers' calm and mature approach in formulating supply...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Resurgent Covid May Prompt Pause in OPEC+ Supply Hikes

Omicron panic drove a 13% plunge in crude on Friday. The fresh oil demand fears, coupled with the US and five other countries releasing oil from...

Vandana Hari

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