Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

<ul>
<li>After four months of rallying under supply-related bullishness, crude has begun to yield downward pressure from recessionary fears.</li>
<li>It is not just sentiment; macro-economic data, including consumer confidence readings, are starting to show weakness.</li>
<li>If Russia continues to successfully reroute its crude being rejected by the EU into Asia, supply concerns will retreat somewhat, bringing the future of demand into sharper focus.</li>
</ul>


After four months of rallying under supply-related bullishness, crude has begun to yield downward pressure from recessionary fears.
It is not just sentiment; macro-economic data, including consumer confidence readings, are starting to show weakness.
If Russia continues to successfully reroute its crude being rejected by the EU into Asia, supply concerns will retreat somewhat, bringing the future of demand into sharper focus.


Bulls & Bears: Near-Term and Short-Term View on Oil Prices

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>WTI sell resistance lies at 115 with risk we fade near 112 following up on our June 24 bearish oil note which outlined downside pressure in metals, agriculture and oil.</li>
<li>Inflation expectations are being replaced with recession fears. The next leg down in oil will induce a shakeout in the crowded energy space.</li>
<li>WTI the 92/95 key lows sets up another long entry point.</li>
</ul>


WTI sell resistance lies at 115 with risk we fade near 112 following up on our June 24 bearish oil note which outlined downside pressure in metals, agriculture and oil.
Inflation expectations are being replaced with recession fears. The next leg down in oil will induce a shakeout in the crowded energy space.
WTI the 92/95 key lows sets up another long entry point.


Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul>
<li>The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 3,4% lower.</li>
<li>It was a tough week for investors who have long positions on commodities in place.</li>
<li>While the mass media is already calling for an end of the commodity bull market, I do think that we only see a correction, which we can use for re-entries in commodities with structural supply problems.</li>
</ul>


The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 3,4% lower.
It was a tough week for investors who have long positions on commodities in place.
While the mass media is already calling for an end of the commodity bull market, I do think that we only see a correction, which we can use for re-entries in commodities with structural supply problems.


<ul>
<li>WTI support breach insight on June 19 outlined the break of support and bias to pressure 105 pivot support. Oil and Agriculture weakness will deflate inflation expectations.</li>
<li>Metals leading commodities lower with bounce support approaching with agriculture just cracking key supports. Weakness would ease inflation expectations and help spur a July/August choppy recovery.</li>
<li>Cycle: Late June low re test ahead of early July bounce only to wobble into the Fed. Post Fed more bullish in August ahead of the bearish September/October period.</li>
</ul>


WTI support breach insight on June 19 outlined the break of support and bias to pressure 105 pivot support. Oil and Agriculture weakness will deflate inflation expectations.
Metals leading commodities lower with bounce support approaching with agriculture just cracking key supports. Weakness would ease inflation expectations and help spur a July/August choppy recovery.
Cycle: Late June low re test ahead of early July bounce only to wobble into the Fed. Post Fed more bullish in August ahead of the bearish September/October period.


Oil and Agri Rolling over Will Impact Yield and Deflate Inflation Expectations

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bearish as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on the SPX and NDX (QQQ), and as long as the 7.5-month downtrend remains intact on the Russell 2000(IWM).</li>
<li>There is potential for a bounce given the SPX, QQQ, and IWM are all at downtrend channel supports.</li>
<li>The continued rise of the U.S. dollar (DXY), 10-yr Treasury yield, and WTI crude oil is what we believe is fueling the bear market in equities.</li>
</ul>


We remain bearish as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on the SPX and NDX (QQQ), and as long as the 7.5-month downtrend remains intact on the Russell 2000(IWM).
There is potential for a bounce given the SPX, QQQ, and IWM are all at downtrend channel supports.
The continued rise of the U.S. dollar (DXY), 10-yr Treasury yield, and WTI crude oil is what we believe is fueling the bear market in equities.


Downgrading Materials; SPX, NDX, Russell 2000 Testing Downtrend Channel Support; Biotech Buys

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Bulls & Bears: Near-Term and Short-Term View on Oil Prices

After four months of rallying under supply-led fears amid the Ukraine war, crude has begun to yield to downward pressure from demand concerns as...

Vandana Hari

The Next Leg Down for Oil

WTI sell resistance lies at 115 with risk we fade near 112 following up on our June 24 bearish oil note which outlined downside pressure in metals,...

Thomas Schroeder

The Commodity Report #57

The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 3,4% lower It was a tough week for investors who have long positions on commodities in place....

The Commodity Report

Oil and Agri Rolling over Will Impact Yield and Deflate Inflation Expectations

WTI support breach insight on June 19 outlined the break of support and bias to pressure 105 pivot support. Oil and Agriculture weakness will...

Thomas Schroeder

Downgrading Materials; SPX, NDX, Russell 2000 Testing Downtrend Channel Support; Biotech Buys

We remain bearish as long as the 6-8 month downtrends remain intact on the SPX, NDX (QQQ), and RUT (IWM). Bounce potential given SPX, QQQ, and IWM...

Vermilion Research

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