Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>OPEC cuts demand growth estimates for the second straight month, lowering its 2024 and 2025 forecasts by 3.8% and 2.2%, respectively, citing demand weakness in China.</li>
<li>Total production of OPEC members obliged to implement supply cuts averaged 21.48m bpd in August, exceeding the target by 1.6%.</li>
<li>EIA lowered its 2024 and 2025 oil price forecasts due to slower demand growth. However, it expects a quick recovery in prices driven by declining inventories.</li>
</ul>


OPEC cuts demand growth estimates for the second straight month, lowering its 2024 and 2025 forecasts by 3.8% and 2.2%, respectively, citing demand weakness in China.
Total production of OPEC members obliged to implement supply cuts averaged 21.48m bpd in August, exceeding the target by 1.6%.
EIA lowered its 2024 and 2025 oil price forecasts due to slower demand growth. However, it expects a quick recovery in prices driven by declining inventories.


OPEC and EIA Cut Oil Demand Forecasts; EIA Projects Nat-Gas Rise in 2025 on Strong LNG Exports

<ul>
<li>WTI futures closed at its 2024 low on 10/Sep, as demand concerns dragged prices down as the supply risk premium dimmed.</li>
<li>WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.09 (10/Sep) from 1.20 the week prior as put volume fell 13.6% WoW while call volume fell by only 4.3%.</li>
<li>WTI OI PCR was unchanged at 0.77 for the week ending 10/Sep from 04/Sep. Call OI rose 6.8% WoW and put OI picked up by 6.4%.</li>
</ul>


WTI futures closed at its 2024 low on 10/Sep, as demand concerns dragged prices down as the supply risk premium dimmed.
WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.09 (10/Sep) from 1.20 the week prior as put volume fell 13.6% WoW while call volume fell by only 4.3%.
WTI OI PCR was unchanged at 0.77 for the week ending 10/Sep from 04/Sep. Call OI rose 6.8% WoW and put OI picked up by 6.4%.


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/36] WTI Crude Hits 2024 Low as Demand Woes Linger

<ul>
<li>US oil and gas rig count fell by one to 582 for the week ending 06/Sep, marking a decline in rig count for the fourth consecutive week.</li>
<li>The US oil rig count is unchanged at 483 for the third consecutive week. Meanwhile, gas rigs declined by one to 94, marking their lowest level since April 2021.</li>
<li>For the week ending 30/Aug, US crude oil production stayed flat WoW at 13.3m bpd. In August, production reached a record high of 13.4m bpd on two occasions.</li>
</ul>


US oil and gas rig count fell by one to 582 for the week ending 06/Sep, marking a decline in rig count for the fourth consecutive week.
The US oil rig count is unchanged at 483 for the third consecutive week. Meanwhile, gas rigs declined by one to 94, marking their lowest level since April 2021.
For the week ending 30/Aug, US crude oil production stayed flat WoW at 13.3m bpd. In August, production reached a record high of 13.4m bpd on two occasions.


Drop in Gas Rigs Leads to Fourth Straight Weekly Decline in US Rig Count

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 30/Aug, US crude inventories fell by 6.9m barrels, surpassing analysts expectations a 600k barrel drawdown. Distillate stocks surprisingly dropped, while gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rise 13 bcf for the week ending 30/Aug, missing analyst expectations of a 26 bcf buildup. Inventories are 10.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>ADNOC to acquire a 35% stake in ExxonMobil’s proposed low-carbon hydrogen facility. BPN Paribas raised the target price on Chevron, while Grupo Santander downgraded TotalEnergies.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 30/Aug, US crude inventories fell by 6.9m barrels, surpassing analysts expectations a 600k barrel drawdown. Distillate stocks surprisingly dropped, while gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose.
US natural gas inventories rise 13 bcf for the week ending 30/Aug, missing analyst expectations of a 26 bcf buildup. Inventories are 10.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
ADNOC to acquire a 35% stake in ExxonMobil’s proposed low-carbon hydrogen facility. BPN Paribas raised the target price on Chevron, while Grupo Santander downgraded TotalEnergies.


[ETP 2024/36] Oil Slumps as Supply Fears Fade; Nat-Gas Soars on Rising Demand Outlook

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.</li>
<li>Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.</li>
<li>SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).</li>
</ul>


Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.
Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.
SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).


Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

OPEC and EIA Cut Oil Demand Forecasts; EIA Projects Nat-Gas Rise in 2025 on Strong LNG Exports

OPEC cut oil demand estimates for the second month but forecasts a 2m bpd growth, above IEA & EIA projections. EIA expects a quick rebound in crude...

Mint Finance

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/36] WTI Crude Hits 2024 Low as Demand Woes Linger

WTI closed at an 18-month low for the week ending 10/Sep as demand concerns overshadowed the impact of the Hurricane. The Put/Call volume ratio...

Mint Finance

Drop in Gas Rigs Leads to Fourth Straight Weekly Decline in US Rig Count

For the week ending 06/Sep, US rig count fell by 1 to 582. Oil rig count was unchanged for the third straight week, while the gas rig count fell by...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/36] Oil Slumps as Supply Fears Fade; Nat-Gas Soars on Rising Demand Outlook

WTI hit a 2024 low on Wednesday as Libyan supply crisis eased & weak manufacturing in China and US fuelled demand concerns. Nat-gas surged on...

Mint Finance

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Recessionary Signals as $SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy $XLE to Underweight; WTI Crude Oil Breakdown. Still expecting more downside. $XLB...

Vermilion Research

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