Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback</li>
<li>Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).</li>
<li>The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback
Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).
The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.


Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s energy cable.</li><li>In this edition, we will delve into last week’s EIA report and provide insights into the natural gas market.</li><li>In the near future, we will continue to closely monitor the developing situation in Israel and Gaza, with a keen focus on their potential impact on commodity prices in the days ahead.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s energy cable.In this edition, we will delve into last week’s EIA report and provide insights into the natural gas market.In the near future, we will continue to closely monitor the developing situation in Israel and Gaza, with a keen focus on their potential impact on commodity prices in the days ahead.

The Energy Cable #41: There is something rotten in the state of EIA

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for the US economy) were overcooked by the economic consensus.</li><li>We are now starting to see stars aligning in our framework and expect the US recession to arrive in Q1-2024 with the final confirmation arriving early in Q2-2024.</li><li>Here is our recession playbook and how we see markets developing alongside it.</li></ul>

We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for the US economy) were overcooked by the economic consensus.We are now starting to see stars aligning in our framework and expect the US recession to arrive in Q1-2024 with the final confirmation arriving early in Q2-2024.Here is our recession playbook and how we see markets developing alongside it.

Recession Playbook: Here is how we think the recession will pan out

<ul><li>We have taken a look at the data over the course of the last five stand-offs between Israel and Hamas/Palestine on the back of the atrocious scenes unfolding in the region over the course of the weekend.</li><li>We hope and pray for a peaceful outcome and send our thoughts and prayers to hostages and impacted civilians.</li><li>We consider an escalation involving Iran to be the biggest market risk right now and will release our geopolitical analysis shortly.</li></ul>

We have taken a look at the data over the course of the last five stand-offs between Israel and Hamas/Palestine on the back of the atrocious scenes unfolding in the region over the course of the weekend.We hope and pray for a peaceful outcome and send our thoughts and prayers to hostages and impacted civilians.We consider an escalation involving Iran to be the biggest market risk right now and will release our geopolitical analysis shortly.

Macro Nugget: How do markets react to turmoil in Gaza/Israel?

<ul><li>A deal between the US/Israel and Saudi Arabia seems off the table after this weekend</li><li>Oil markets are physically tight still, but there are some signs of cracks in demand</li><li>Nat gas markets have started to rally, which is another issue for EUR, GBP and JPY markets</li></ul>

A deal between the US/Israel and Saudi Arabia seems off the table after this weekendOil markets are physically tight still, but there are some signs of cracks in demandNat gas markets have started to rally, which is another issue for EUR, GBP and JPY markets

Steno Signals #68: There is NOT enough buyers for bonds amidst all this

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research

The Energy Cable #41: There is something rotten in the state of EIA

Welcome to this week’s energy cable. In this edition, we will delve into last week’s EIA report and provide insights into the natural gas...

Steno Research

Recession Playbook: Here is how we think the recession will pan out

We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for...

Steno Research

Macro Nugget: How do markets react to turmoil in Gaza/Israel?

We have taken a look at the data over the course of the last five stand-offs between Israel and Hamas/Palestine on the back of the atrocious...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #68: There is NOT enough buyers for bonds amidst all this

A deal between the US/Israel and Saudi Arabia seems off the table after this weekend. Oil markets are physically tight still, but there are some...

Steno Research

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