Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.</li>
<li>It’s safe to say that energy is all everyone is talking about with the oil rally still going strong, but the trade might have more to give as positioning is not as exhausted as some people might tell you.</li>
<li>When you take into account the number of traders in the CFTC report, oil positioning is barely anything compared to history.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.
It’s safe to say that energy is all everyone is talking about with the oil rally still going strong, but the trade might have more to give as positioning is not as exhausted as some people might tell you.
When you take into account the number of traders in the CFTC report, oil positioning is barely anything compared to history.


Positioning Watch – Oil Longs Are Not as Big as You Think

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Inflation Came down fast across Europe, yet bond yields continued to rally. We think markets are wrong on yields even though Italy and France have zero appetite to sustainably lower their budget deficits.</li>
<li>We discuss falling consumer sentiment and the increasing parallel between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018 when retail sales tumbled. Are we in for a rerun? </li>
<li>Though not the mother of all stock market indices, several indices have dropped below their 200-day moving average, while the equally weighted S&amp;P 500 Index has reversed all of this year’s gains. </li>
</ul>


Inflation Came down fast across Europe, yet bond yields continued to rally. We think markets are wrong on yields even though Italy and France have zero appetite to sustainably lower their budget deficits.
We discuss falling consumer sentiment and the increasing parallel between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018 when retail sales tumbled. Are we in for a rerun? 
Though not the mother of all stock market indices, several indices have dropped below their 200-day moving average, while the equally weighted S&amp;P 500 Index has reversed all of this year’s gains. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Lately, we’ve been quite outspoken regarding the imminent threat posed by the USD/Oil dynamics, which has the potential to unleash turmoil within the emerging markets sphere.</li><li>While we typically don’t shy away from challenging prevailing opinions, it appears that, in this specific context, our perspective is slowly becoming the consensus view (which, I might add, is more lucrative than the opposite order).</li><li>But perhaps it is worthwhile to question and assess the fundamental drivers behind the current predicament-  and ask what does it take to turn things around?</li></ul>

Lately, we’ve been quite outspoken regarding the imminent threat posed by the USD/Oil dynamics, which has the potential to unleash turmoil within the emerging markets sphere.While we typically don’t shy away from challenging prevailing opinions, it appears that, in this specific context, our perspective is slowly becoming the consensus view (which, I might add, is more lucrative than the opposite order).But perhaps it is worthwhile to question and assess the fundamental drivers behind the current predicament-  and ask what does it take to turn things around?

EM by EM #23 Playing the Least Dirty Laundry Vs the Dirtiest

<ul><li>The risk/reward in going long Natural Gas is getting better by the week currently</li><li>The European and Japanese trade surplus/deficit is 100% under the control of energy prices, leaving JPY and EUR vulnerable to such a spike in Nat Gas prices</li><li>We are once again in the hands of Tsars and Muftis this Winter and we better hope that the wind blows..</li></ul>

The risk/reward in going long Natural Gas is getting better by the week currentlyThe European and Japanese trade surplus/deficit is 100% under the control of energy prices, leaving JPY and EUR vulnerable to such a spike in Nat Gas pricesWe are once again in the hands of Tsars and Muftis this Winter and we better hope that the wind blows..

Out of the Box #20: Gas and Steepeners Brought to You by Muftis and Tsars

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>The oil market consensus is getting very uniform as everyone and their mother has figured out that there is an obvious supply deficit through Q4.</li><li>Is it time to switch focus in energy markets to better risk/rewards than long oil bets?</li><li>We take a look at oil, natural gas and uranium bets in this weeks Energy Cable newsletter.</li></ul>

The oil market consensus is getting very uniform as everyone and their mother has figured out that there is an obvious supply deficit through Q4.Is it time to switch focus in energy markets to better risk/rewards than long oil bets?We take a look at oil, natural gas and uranium bets in this weeks Energy Cable newsletter.

The Energy Cable #39: A Maturing Bull Market

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Positioning Watch – Oil Longs Are Not as Big as You Think

Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues

Inflation is collapsing and even turned negative in the Netherlands. Yet, bond yields continue to spike, providing ample downside risk for equities.

Jeroen Blokland

EM by EM #23 Playing the Least Dirty Laundry Vs the Dirtiest

Lately, we’ve been quite outspoken regarding the imminent threat posed by the USD/Oil dynamics, which has the potential to unleash turmoil within...

Steno Research

Out of the Box #20: Gas and Steepeners Brought to You by Muftis and Tsars

The risk/reward in going long Natural Gas is getting better by the week currently The European and Japanese trade surplus/deficit is 100% under...

Steno Research

The Energy Cable #39: A Maturing Bull Market

The oil market consensus is getting very uniform as everyone and their mother has figured out that there is an obvious supply deficit through...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)