Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we provide 5 of the things we keep an eye out for in global macro in a short and concise format.</li><li>This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: Rates Pricing, Liquidity Turning, Labor Market, Commodities, China.</li><li>The market went into the year expecting 7 cuts in total from the Fed, which has now been narrowed down to less than two, all while equity markets have continued their drift higher as the economy is doing better than expected paired with benign liquidity conditions.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we provide 5 of the things we keep an eye out for in global macro in a short and concise format.This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: Rates Pricing, Liquidity Turning, Labor Market, Commodities, China.The market went into the year expecting 7 cuts in total from the Fed, which has now been narrowed down to less than two, all while equity markets have continued their drift higher as the economy is doing better than expected paired with benign liquidity conditions.

5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Liquidity turning, Labor Market, Commodities & China

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.</li>
<li>We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.
We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.


Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning/sentiment overview.</li><li>The mood in equity markets is still good, with major indices stabilizing at levels far above all time highs despite taking some time to swallow hawkish comments from Fed officials.</li><li>Markets seemingly don’t care about the repricing of Fed rates until they hear it from Powell’s mouth or until they get a feeling of true pivot (on the pivot).</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning/sentiment overview.The mood in equity markets is still good, with major indices stabilizing at levels far above all time highs despite taking some time to swallow hawkish comments from Fed officials.Markets seemingly don’t care about the repricing of Fed rates until they hear it from Powell’s mouth or until they get a feeling of true pivot (on the pivot).

Positioning Watch – Reflation bets are back in

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Top Commodity Trader is Long Cocoa Pierre Andurand’s hedge fund bet on higher cocoa prices ahead of a massive surge last month, according to a Bloomberg article.</li><li>Andurand said his firm expects cocoa-beans production globally to be down at least 18% on an annual basis, compared to most analysts’ expectations of 10-11%.</li><li>“This means that we will finish the year with the lowest stocks-to-grinding ratio ever, and potentially run out of inventories late in the year,” he added.</li></ul>

Top Commodity Trader is Long Cocoa Pierre Andurand’s hedge fund bet on higher cocoa prices ahead of a massive surge last month, according to a Bloomberg article.Andurand said his firm expects cocoa-beans production globally to be down at least 18% on an annual basis, compared to most analysts’ expectations of 10-11%.“This means that we will finish the year with the lowest stocks-to-grinding ratio ever, and potentially run out of inventories late in the year,” he added.

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Take aways: Booking profits in crude, staying long in broader metals. Crude predicting ISM to turn in 6-9 months time. Sluggish German IP ahead. Last week, we reached our profit level in crude oil, leading us to exit the trade successfully.</li><li>Our outlook remains bullish on commodities, spurred by what we perceive as a reflation head fake.</li><li>This optimism has prompted us to enter a long proxy-position in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), as we observe the rally widening across the commodity complex (Chart 1).</li></ul>

Take aways: Booking profits in crude, staying long in broader metals. Crude predicting ISM to turn in 6-9 months time. Sluggish German IP ahead. Last week, we reached our profit level in crude oil, leading us to exit the trade successfully.Our outlook remains bullish on commodities, spurred by what we perceive as a reflation head fake.This optimism has prompted us to enter a long proxy-position in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), as we observe the rally widening across the commodity complex (Chart 1).

Energy Cable: Melt UP in commodities upcoming?

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Liquidity turning, Labor Market, Commodities & China

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we provide 5 of the things we keep an eye out for in global macro in a...

Steno Research

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets $EEM $FM; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD has...

Vermilion Research

Positioning Watch – Reflation bets are back in

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning/sentiment overview. The mood in equity markets is still good, with major indices...

Steno Research

The Cocoa Saga Continues - Be Careful

Top Commodity Trader is Long Cocoa Pierre Andurand’s hedge fund bet on higher cocoa prices ahead of a massive surge last month, according to a...

The Commodity Report

Energy Cable: Melt UP in commodities upcoming?

Take aways: Booking profits in crude, staying long in broader metals Crude predicting ISM to turn in 6-9 months time. Sluggish German IP ahead....

Steno Research

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