Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Takeaways: Copper diverging from its fundamentals - <span style="font-weight: 400;">we continue to hold a bearish outlook as prices and positioning appear disconnected from macro variables</span></li><li>Inventories in the US are building</li><li>Shipping lanes are easing, and o<span style="font-weight: 400;">ur Trump basket gives you the green light to continue in crude et. al. </span></li></ul>

Takeaways: Copper diverging from its fundamentals - we continue to hold a bearish outlook as prices and positioning appear disconnected from macro variablesInventories in the US are buildingShipping lanes are easing, and our Trump basket gives you the green light to continue in crude et. al. 

Energy Cable: Copper Prices Are Too High!

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Trump secures Republican nomination. Trump v/s Biden again. Volatility will the biggest winner. Gold will thrive on rising geopolitical tensions.</li>
<li>Equities will face headwinds during Trump 2.0. European stocks and EM equities will underperform with anticipated trade restrictions and protectionism.</li>
<li>USD will weaken. Oil prices will fall. Defense sector will benefit from rising tensions and reduced US role in NATO and the world at large.</li>
</ul>


Trump secures Republican nomination. Trump v/s Biden again. Volatility will the biggest winner. Gold will thrive on rising geopolitical tensions.
Equities will face headwinds during Trump 2.0. European stocks and EM equities will underperform with anticipated trade restrictions and protectionism.
USD will weaken. Oil prices will fall. Defense sector will benefit from rising tensions and reduced US role in NATO and the world at large.


Long Volatility & Gold, Caution on Equities, and Short Dollar & Oil Under Trump 2.0

<ul>
<li>NOAA predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal hurricane season (Jun to Nov), with 17-25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).</li>
<li>Oil prices plunge 1.6% before and then rises 2.4% in the ten days after weather shock. Crude oil IV rises 8.7% in 10-days before and 10-days after the weather shock.</li>
<li>Hurricanes impact offshore oil production &amp; refinery operations in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), which accounts for 14% of total US crude production and 48% of US refinery capacity.</li>
</ul>


NOAA predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal hurricane season (Jun to Nov), with 17-25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).
Oil prices plunge 1.6% before and then rises 2.4% in the ten days after weather shock. Crude oil IV rises 8.7% in 10-days before and 10-days after the weather shock.
Hurricanes impact offshore oil production &amp; refinery operations in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), which accounts for 14% of total US crude production and 48% of US refinery capacity.


Rough Hurricane Season to Fuel Rollercoaster Rides in US Energy Markets

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

<ul>
<li>Takeaways: More pressures on freight rates… Still no spillover to PPI/CPI. Hedge funds appear to have an appetite for crude oil, but not so much for energy stocks. Macro data more tilted towards normalization rather than weakening.</li>
<li>Greetings from a cloudy Copenhagen and welcome to another Energy Cable, following last week’s weak-ish ISM prints. Ready for more turmoil in shipping?</li>
<li>A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S has announced that extreme weather conditions, including a storm surge along the South African coast, are expected to cause shipping delays.</li>
</ul>


Takeaways: More pressures on freight rates… Still no spillover to PPI/CPI. Hedge funds appear to have an appetite for crude oil, but not so much for energy stocks. Macro data more tilted towards normalization rather than weakening.
Greetings from a cloudy Copenhagen and welcome to another Energy Cable, following last week’s weak-ish ISM prints. Ready for more turmoil in shipping?
A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S has announced that extreme weather conditions, including a storm surge along the South African coast, are expected to cause shipping delays.


Energy Cable: When it Rains, It Pours in Shipping

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Energy Cable: Copper Prices Are Too High!

This week, we will take a look at copper, which has rebounded in July, and also discuss freight rates, where calmer weather at the Cape of Good...

Steno Research

Long Volatility & Gold, Caution on Equities, and Short Dollar & Oil Under Trump 2.0

Former President Donald Trump was shot at a rally. Initial assessment suggests that shooting will boost Trump’s chances of winning the...

Mint Finance

Rough Hurricane Season to Fuel Rollercoaster Rides in US Energy Markets

NOAA predicts above-normal hurricane season. They impact oil production & refinery ops in the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for 14% of total US...

Mint Finance

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Energy Cable: When it Rains, It Pours in Shipping

Takeaways:More pressures on freight rates… Still no spillover to PPI/CPIHedge funds appear to have an appetite for crude oil, but not so much for...

Steno Research

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