Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome to a short and sweet look at the current business cycle, what to expect, and which assets to buy ahead of what could be significant cyclical expansion.</li><li>April data has in general been week in our models and nowcasts, which was reflected in the fairly dovish CPI report yesterday.</li><li>However, May actitivity is picking up momentum again, and our Truck Demand indicator points to the business cycle picking up again from May onwards.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome to a short and sweet look at the current business cycle, what to expect, and which assets to buy ahead of what could be significant cyclical expansion.April data has in general been week in our models and nowcasts, which was reflected in the fairly dovish CPI report yesterday.However, May actitivity is picking up momentum again, and our Truck Demand indicator points to the business cycle picking up again from May onwards.

Business Cycle Watch – What to buy if manufacturing keeps surprising to the upside?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Before we start we need to talk about freight rates as they are telling for the overall demand cycle.</li><li>The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) surged 18.8% sequentially to 2,306 for the week ending May 10, marking its fifth consecutive weekly increase.</li><li>This puts the SCFI at its highest level outside the pandemic boom, as most liners have successfully implemented general rate increases (GRIs) in recent weeks.</li></ul>

Before we start we need to talk about freight rates as they are telling for the overall demand cycle.The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) surged 18.8% sequentially to 2,306 for the week ending May 10, marking its fifth consecutive weekly increase.This puts the SCFI at its highest level outside the pandemic boom, as most liners have successfully implemented general rate increases (GRIs) in recent weeks.

Energy Cable: Nowcasts hinting that April was a big false flag

<ul><li>We were honestly puzzled by the weakness in Manufacturing PMIs in April as our models pointed in the other direction.</li><li>The timely data delivered by daily congestion numbers point in a positive direction (also adjusted for seasonality), which is typically a strong sign that the lagging consumption numbers (of energy, food and the likes) will see upside.</li><li>The congestion based now-cast from ports, roads and air data sources point to 5-6% YoY increase still and the US truck market demand index rebounded in the first few weeks of May as well after a soft path in April.</li></ul>

We were honestly puzzled by the weakness in Manufacturing PMIs in April as our models pointed in the other direction.The timely data delivered by daily congestion numbers point in a positive direction (also adjusted for seasonality), which is typically a strong sign that the lagging consumption numbers (of energy, food and the likes) will see upside.The congestion based now-cast from ports, roads and air data sources point to 5-6% YoY increase still and the US truck market demand index rebounded in the first few weeks of May as well after a soft path in April.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).</li>
<li>Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.</li>
<li>We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).
Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.
We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.


Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

<ul><li>Freight rates are rising again and it will likely impact USD inflation in Q2 already.</li><li>The Saudis are trying to bring back the oil bulls via keeping the market tight. '</li><li>Our models are close to entering a long oil bet again..</li></ul>

Freight rates are rising again and it will likely impact USD inflation in Q2 already.The Saudis are trying to bring back the oil bulls via keeping the market tight. 'Our models are close to entering a long oil bet again..

Energy Cable: Saudis are pushing hard for a new oil bull market

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Business Cycle Watch – What to buy if manufacturing keeps surprising to the upside?

Hello everyone, and welcome to a short and sweet look at the current business cycle, what to expect, and which assets to buy ahead of what could...

Steno Research

Energy Cable: Nowcasts hinting that April was a big false flag

Before we start we need to talk about freight rates as they are telling for the overall demand cycle. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Reflation is back!

We were honestly puzzled by the weakness in Manufacturing PMIs in April as our models pointed in the other direction. The timely data delivered by...

Steno Research

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight Despite Still Being Bullish on $XBI....

Vermilion Research

Energy Cable: Saudis are pushing hard for a new oil bull market

Take aways:Freight rates are rising again and it will likely impact USD inflation in Q2 alreadyThe Saudis are trying to bring back the oil bulls...

Steno Research

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