Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The US announcement Tuesday of a multinational release of strategic oil reserves turned out to be a damp squib, prompting a price rebound -- 3% in Brent, 2% in WTI.</li>
<li>But Biden's move has also left the door open for OPEC+ to throttle back its production increase; the decision will be known on Dec 2.</li>
<li>Europe's Covid wave is a dampener but fears over a crimp in the region's oil demand may be overdone.</li>
</ul>


The US announcement Tuesday of a multinational release of strategic oil reserves turned out to be a damp squib, prompting a price rebound -- 3% in Brent, 2% in WTI.
But Biden's move has also left the door open for OPEC+ to throttle back its production increase; the decision will be known on Dec 2.
Europe's Covid wave is a dampener but fears over a crimp in the region's oil demand may be overdone.


Quick Views: Crude Shrugs off SPR Sale, Eye Back on OPEC+, Covid

<ul>
<li>Covid's resurgence in Europe prompted a plunge in crude on November 19. The sell-off is overdone and a modest rebound is certain. But there's a new cap on crude prices.</li>
<li>The uncertainty of US SPR oil sales was compounded by news that the US has asked major Asian oil-consuming countries to join. We still don't see it happening.</li>
<li>We attended the annual Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi, a fully in-person event, and bring you our key takeaways.</li>
</ul>


Covid's resurgence in Europe prompted a plunge in crude on November 19. The sell-off is overdone and a modest rebound is certain. But there's a new cap on crude prices.
The uncertainty of US SPR oil sales was compounded by news that the US has asked major Asian oil-consuming countries to join. We still don't see it happening.
We attended the annual Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi, a fully in-person event, and bring you our key takeaways.


Weekly Oil Views: Covid Resurgence, Not SPR Sales, Will Check Crude's Rally

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Price action across different markets warn of some short term trouble</li>
<li>This includes developments in Gold, Oil, USDJPY and US Treasuries</li>
<li>Continue to watch the Dow Jones closely as a short term wobble may soon arrive</li>
</ul>


Price action across different markets warn of some short term trouble
This includes developments in Gold, Oil, USDJPY and US Treasuries
Continue to watch the Dow Jones closely as a short term wobble may soon arrive


Equities - A Small Negative Wave Arriving?

<ul>
<li>Crude's rally began on the coattails of the gas-coal energy crisis but is now running on its own steam. A correction looks unlikely.</li>
<li>Between an oversupplied market in 2020 and a swing to surplus projected for 2022, OPEC+ has only this year to recoup its Covid losses.</li>
<li>The US has no good options to tame gasoline prices. An SPR release or a crude export ban are both flawed. It may end up doing neither.</li>
</ul>


Crude's rally began on the coattails of the gas-coal energy crisis but is now running on its own steam. A correction looks unlikely.
Between an oversupplied market in 2020 and a swing to surplus projected for 2022, OPEC+ has only this year to recoup its Covid losses.
The US has no good options to tame gasoline prices. An SPR release or a crude export ban are both flawed. It may end up doing neither.


Weekly Oil Views: Crude Stuck in $80-85 Comfort Zone but May Remain Jumpy

Crude's rally on the back of gas shortages in Europe and a coal crunch in China over the past seven weeks has lifted Brent futures to successive three-year highs and WTI futures to levels not seen in seven years.There is some relief in sight for the energy crisis, with Europe due to start receiving more natural gas into its storages from Russia's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gazprom-pjsc-6a7231a9-d5e4-4da4-bf21-aa1b9d50fbf8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27578:1" rel="noopener">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RM)</a> and Chinese coal mines starting to ramp up output under government orders.However, with winter demand rising in tandem, the market may remain tightly balanced, sustained a fear premium in coal, gas and oil prices. The OPEC+ alliance adamantly sticking to its cautious tapering plan and keeping the global market undersupplied through the fourth quarter is also price-supportive.In this monthly report, we weigh the bullish and bearish factors in the market to assess the net impact on benchmark crude prices in the near term and the next three months.

Crude's rally on the back of gas shortages in Europe and a coal crunch in China over the past seven weeks has lifted Brent futures to successive three-year highs and WTI futures to levels not seen in seven years.There is some relief in sight for the energy crisis, with Europe due to start receiving more natural gas into its storages from Russia's Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RM) and Chinese coal mines starting to ramp up output under government orders.However, with winter demand rising in tandem, the market may remain tightly balanced, sustained a fear premium in coal, gas and oil prices. The OPEC+ alliance adamantly sticking to its cautious tapering plan and keeping the global market undersupplied through the fourth quarter is also price-supportive.In this monthly report, we weigh the bullish and bearish factors in the market to assess the net impact on benchmark crude prices in the near term and the next three months.

Vanda Insights Bulls & Bears: Near- And Short-Term View on Oil Prices

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Quick Views: Crude Shrugs off SPR Sale, Eye Back on OPEC+, Covid

The US and five other countries have agreed coordinated sales of strategic oil reserves but the volumes are unimpressive and OPEC+ may now withhold...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Covid Resurgence, Not SPR Sales, Will Check Crude's Rally

The prospect of US and some Asian governments releasing oil from strategic reserves hangs over the market but we don't see it happening. However,...

Vandana Hari

Equities - A Small Negative Wave Arriving?

Price action developments across various markets - from Gold & FX to Commodities & Fixed Income - are warning of a potential negative wave ahead...

Shyam Devani

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Stuck in $80-85 Comfort Zone but May Remain Jumpy

Crude's rally is now running on its own steam, boosted by a strong oil demand rebound and there are virtually no relief valves to boost supply...

Vandana Hari

Vanda Insights Bulls & Bears: Near- And Short-Term View on Oil Prices

Crude's seven-week rally has stumbled a couple of times but not reversed course. It has staying power but limited upside but there may be brief...

Vandana Hari

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