Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

<ul>
<li>In our previous insight, Oil in 2022: See It Through the Prism of Covid, we have covered the pandemic and economic environments that will shape the market in 2022.</li>
<li>This piece covers the supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical flashpoints. On supply, we think US output projections are over-optimistic. </li>
<li>On demand, watch out for wide divergence in the recovery patterns of major consuming countries. Geopolitical threats to supply receded in 2020-21 but may flare up again.</li>
</ul>


In our previous insight, Oil in 2022: See It Through the Prism of Covid, we have covered the pandemic and economic environments that will shape the market in 2022.
This piece covers the supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical flashpoints. On supply, we think US output projections are over-optimistic. 
On demand, watch out for wide divergence in the recovery patterns of major consuming countries. Geopolitical threats to supply receded in 2020-21 but may flare up again.


Oil in 2022 (Part 2): How to View Fundamentals and Geopolitics

<ul>
<li>Brent has notched a 64% annual jump in 2021 amid rebounding demand and OPEC+ keeping a tight rein on supply. Our base case is for a pullback in 2022.</li>
<li>Covid will continue to have an overarching influence on economic growth, and by extension, oil demand recovery. </li>
<li>We expect a deceleration in demand growth in 2022 and a slight acceleration in supply growth, making for softer crude prices.</li>
</ul>


Brent has notched a 64% annual jump in 2021 amid rebounding demand and OPEC+ keeping a tight rein on supply. Our base case is for a pullback in 2022.
Covid will continue to have an overarching influence on economic growth, and by extension, oil demand recovery. 
We expect a deceleration in demand growth in 2022 and a slight acceleration in supply growth, making for softer crude prices.


Oil in 2022: See It Through the Prism of Covid

<ul>
<li>Crude came in for a panic sell-off by pricing in the worst-case scenario on Omicron. A subsequent relief rally only recouped a little over half the $13 in cumulative losses.</li>
<li>It may remain in a holding pattern for the rest of December, as markets adopt a wait-and-watch approach in holiday-thinned trading.  </li>
<li>A lot of noise on the geopolitical front: Iran deal talks, Ukraine tensions and Libyan presidential elections. But for now, the market has no clue what to price in.</li>
</ul>


Crude came in for a panic sell-off by pricing in the worst-case scenario on Omicron. A subsequent relief rally only recouped a little over half the $13 in cumulative losses.
It may remain in a holding pattern for the rest of December, as markets adopt a wait-and-watch approach in holiday-thinned trading.  
A lot of noise on the geopolitical front: Iran deal talks, Ukraine tensions and Libyan presidential elections. But for now, the market has no clue what to price in.


Weekly Oil Views: Omicron Uncertainty May Keep Brent Tethered to the Low-$70s

<ul>
<li>Crude has recouped a little over 50% of the Omicron-induced losses as fears of the worst-case scenario recede.</li>
<li>Our analysis leads us to a Mildly Bullish sentiment for the near-term and a Mildly Bearish sentiment. </li>
<li>We lay out the major bullish and bearish factors taken into account and explain how we arrived at the above conclusion.</li>
</ul>


Crude has recouped a little over 50% of the Omicron-induced losses as fears of the worst-case scenario recede.
Our analysis leads us to a Mildly Bullish sentiment for the near-term and a Mildly Bearish sentiment. 
We lay out the major bullish and bearish factors taken into account and explain how we arrived at the above conclusion.


Bulls & Bears: Immediate and Short-Term View on Oil Prices

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics have mildly deteriorated in recent weeks on concerns over less accommodative monetary policy and the Omicron variant.</li>
<li>Despite recent deterioration, critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes, and our global outlook remains neutral as we continue to expect more consolidation and mixed markets.</li>
<li>Growth continues to outperform relative to value. Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics have mildly deteriorated in recent weeks on concerns over less accommodative monetary policy and the Omicron variant.
Despite recent deterioration, critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes, and our global outlook remains neutral as we continue to expect more consolidation and mixed markets.
Growth continues to outperform relative to value. Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary.


Add To Growth On This Pullback; Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Oil in 2022 (Part 2): How to View Fundamentals and Geopolitics

Following on from our views on the pandemic and economic backdrop for the oil market in 2022, this insight covers our expectations on supply-demand...

Vandana Hari

Oil in 2022: See It Through the Prism of Covid

Crude prices notched their highest annual rebound on record since the oil price shock of 1979. But as economic and oil demand growth decelerates in...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Omicron Uncertainty May Keep Brent Tethered to the Low-$70s

A modest relief rally has rescued crude from the dumps that corresponded with the initial Omicron panic. But the rest of the price recovery is...

Vandana Hari

Bulls & Bears: Immediate and Short-Term View on Oil Prices

A succinct analysis of the bullish and bearish factors we see in the oil markets over the next several days and three months, and our conclusion of...

Vandana Hari

Add To Growth On This Pullback; Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary

Growth continues to outperform relative to value, shown by the intact uptrend on the MSCI ACWI ex-US Growth vs. Value ratio. We highlight...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)