Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Despite the tough macroeconomic backdrop, digital advertising spend will continue to rise in 2023, largely driven by programmatic spend.</li><li>Connected TV (CTV) continues to surge and is expected to be the fastest-growing channel in 2023, growing at nearly 15% Y/Y, according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB).</li><li>Social media advertising spend will decrease in 2023, according to eMarketer’s ad spending forecast, with a reduction of $16.21 billion due largely to a rising focus on privacy and transparency.</li></ul>

Despite the tough macroeconomic backdrop, digital advertising spend will continue to rise in 2023, largely driven by programmatic spend.Connected TV (CTV) continues to surge and is expected to be the fastest-growing channel in 2023, growing at nearly 15% Y/Y, according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB).Social media advertising spend will decrease in 2023, according to eMarketer’s ad spending forecast, with a reduction of $16.21 billion due largely to a rising focus on privacy and transparency.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

iClick Interactive Asia Group / Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iclick-interactive-asia-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27314:1" rel="noopener">iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US)</a> is a leading enterprise and marketing cloud platform in China. It is a platinum provider to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> in social advertising and provides one-stop solutions in user acquisition and engagement. iClick was listed on Nasdaq in December 2017 at $8.00 per ADS and raised net proceeds of $23.3 million.  On 24 September, iClick announced a non-binding privatisation proposal from PAG and Oasis Management. The bid of $6.75 in cash per ADS represents a premium of 19.5% to the undisturbed price (on 23 September). As iClick is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, for the privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of shares present and voting need to approve the deal. PAG and Oasis have not disclosed a shareholding. iClick’s three largest shareholders are Wing Hong Sammy Hsieh (co-founder and Chairman), Jian Tang (co-founder and CEO) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baozun-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24184:1" rel="noopener">Baozun Inc. (BZUN US)</a>. Mr Hsieh and Mr Tang together represent around 62% of voting interests. PAG and Oasis’ letter to the board mentions an intention to acquire all the shares other than those “shares held by the members of management and other strategic shareholders of the Company that may be rolled over in connection with the proposed transaction.” The wording suggests that PAG and Oasis are in advanced stages of discussions with the co-founders and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baozun" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29712:1" rel="noopener">Baozun (9991 HK)</a>. iClick’s shares reached an all-time high of $18.30 per ADS on 18 February 2021 on the back of the announcement that Baozun acquired 4% of outstanding shares and 10% voting interest at $13.262 per ADS. In part due to China’s regulatory clampdown on tech names, the shares have since headed downwards to reach a YTD low of $4.16 per ADS on 20 August. <div class="content-highlight">The offer is unattractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples, in our view. The offer is designed to take advantage of the sell-off in Chinese tech names by enriching insiders at the expense of minorities. The timing of the offer announcement points to PAG and Oasis’ confidence in gaining the co-founders and/or Bazoun’s support as rollover shareholders. We think that there is a decent chance that privatisation succeeds. At the last close of $5.91 per ADS, the gross spread to the offer price is 14.2%.  </div>

iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US) is a leading enterprise and marketing cloud platform in China. It is a platinum provider to Tencent (700 HK) in social advertising and provides one-stop solutions in user acquisition and engagement. iClick was listed on Nasdaq in December 2017 at $8.00 per ADS and raised net proceeds of $23.3 million.  On 24 September, iClick announced a non-binding privatisation proposal from PAG and Oasis Management. The bid of $6.75 in cash per ADS represents a premium of 19.5% to the undisturbed price (on 23 September). As iClick is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, for the privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of shares present and voting need to approve the deal. PAG and Oasis have not disclosed a shareholding. iClick’s three largest shareholders are Wing Hong Sammy Hsieh (co-founder and Chairman), Jian Tang (co-founder and CEO) and Baozun Inc. (BZUN US). Mr Hsieh and Mr Tang together represent around 62% of voting interests. PAG and Oasis’ letter to the board mentions an intention to acquire all the shares other than those “shares held by the members of management and other strategic shareholders of the Company that may be rolled over in connection with the proposed transaction.” The wording suggests that PAG and Oasis are in advanced stages of discussions with the co-founders and Baozun (9991 HK). iClick’s shares reached an all-time high of $18.30 per ADS on 18 February 2021 on the back of the announcement that Baozun acquired 4% of outstanding shares and 10% voting interest at $13.262 per ADS. In part due to China’s regulatory clampdown on tech names, the shares have since headed downwards to reach a YTD low of $4.16 per ADS on 20 August. The offer is unattractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples, in our view. The offer is designed to take advantage of the sell-off in Chinese tech names by enriching insiders at the expense of minorities. The timing of the offer announcement points to PAG and Oasis’ confidence in gaining the co-founders and/or Bazoun’s support as rollover shareholders. We think that there is a decent chance that privatisation succeeds. At the last close of $5.91 per ADS, the gross spread to the offer price is 14.2%.  

IClick’s Privatisation Bid from PAG and Oasis

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/delisting-deceitful-chinese-companies-act-not-a-slam-dunk-and-has-more-bark-than-bite-if-it-passes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40025" rel="noopener">"Delisting Deceitful Chinese Companies Act" Not a Slam Dunk and Has More Bark Than Bite if It Passes</a>, I made three "predictions." First, the U.S. House of Representatives would not get around to voting on the "delisting act" before the end of the Congressional session. Second, if the House does vote, it would likely pass the bill. Third, if the bill passes, it would have more bark than bite.As a bloke called Meat Loaf once sung, "two out of three ain't bad."On Wednesday, the House voted and passed Senate Bill 945, titled the "Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act." That the House managed to vote amidst the dual chaos of a raging pandemic and an unhinged President – so close to adjourning this 116th Congress – is a surprise. That it voted to pass S945 is not at all surprising, however, given widespread bi-partisan support for the bill.The real epiphany comes from additional details provided during House testimony just prior to the vote. Not many, but those details that were disclosed (plus the tone in which they were articulated) shed light on how S945 will be implemented and enforced by the SEC, and why foreign issuers and investors should duly-cautious but not overly-concerned. And why this "delisting bill" is ...... more bark than bite.This Insight presents an updated analysis of S945 (general and China/Hong Kong-specific aspects), shares new details provided by Representative Brad Sherman, offers an opinion on the SEC's likely approach to writing and enforcing S945 rules, analyses China/Hong Kong stocks most at risk under S945, and stocks affected by the France/Belgium angle (similar to China/Hong Kong).

In "Delisting Deceitful Chinese Companies Act" Not a Slam Dunk and Has More Bark Than Bite if It Passes, I made three "predictions." First, the U.S. House of Representatives would not get around to voting on the "delisting act" before the end of the Congressional session. Second, if the House does vote, it would likely pass the bill. Third, if the bill passes, it would have more bark than bite.As a bloke called Meat Loaf once sung, "two out of three ain't bad."On Wednesday, the House voted and passed Senate Bill 945, titled the "Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act." That the House managed to vote amidst the dual chaos of a raging pandemic and an unhinged President – so close to adjourning this 116th Congress – is a surprise. That it voted to pass S945 is not at all surprising, however, given widespread bi-partisan support for the bill.The real epiphany comes from additional details provided during House testimony just prior to the vote. Not many, but those details that were disclosed (plus the tone in which they were articulated) shed light on how S945 will be implemented and enforced by the SEC, and why foreign issuers and investors should duly-cautious but not overly-concerned. And why this "delisting bill" is ...... more bark than bite.This Insight presents an updated analysis of S945 (general and China/Hong Kong-specific aspects), shares new details provided by Representative Brad Sherman, offers an opinion on the SEC's likely approach to writing and enforcing S945 rules, analyses China/Hong Kong stocks most at risk under S945, and stocks affected by the France/Belgium angle (similar to China/Hong Kong).

House Passes "Delisting Act" Giving SEC 90 Days to Write Its Rules (And Yes, More Bark Than Bite)

France

Criteo SA is a global commerce marketing technology company. The Company helps commerce companies and brand manufacturers acquire, convert and re-engage their customers, using shopping data, predictive technology and large consumer reach. Criteo prices its offering on a cost-per-click and measures its value based on post-click sales.

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Criteo SA (CRTO US)

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

WTR Tech Talks: Adtech 101

Despite the tough macroeconomic backdrop, digital advertising spend will continue to rise in 2023, largely driven by programmatic spend.

Water Tower Research

IClick’s Privatisation Bid from PAG and Oasis

The $6.75 per ADS offer is designed to take advantage of the market sell-off by enriching insiders at the expense of minorities. If the co-founders...

Arun George

House Passes "Delisting Act" Giving SEC 90 Days to Write Its Rules (And Yes, More Bark Than Bite)

The U.S. House of Representatives passed Senate Bill 945, the "Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act." New details support the notion that S945...

Kyle Rudden

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