Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 18 December 2023, construction play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adbri-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20166:1" rel="noopener">Adbri (ABC AU)</a> entered into a process and exclusivity deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crh-plc-054117b2-cd70-470a-9efc-8f6fab2c83ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28655:1" rel="noopener">CRH (CRH US)</a> and 42.7%-shareholder Raymond Barro (Chairman).</li>
<li>Adbri has now entered into a <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240227/pdf/060vd6t3wwxpp2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme Implementation Deed</a> with CRH under which CRH will acquire all of the shares in Adbri that the Barro Group does not currently own.</li>
<li>Conditions include Adbri's shareholder approval and FIRB signing off. The transaction is expected to close in June of this year.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 18 December 2023, construction play Adbri (ABC AU) entered into a process and exclusivity deed with CRH (CRH US) and 42.7%-shareholder Raymond Barro (Chairman).
Adbri has now entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with CRH under which CRH will acquire all of the shares in Adbri that the Barro Group does not currently own.
Conditions include Adbri's shareholder approval and FIRB signing off. The transaction is expected to close in June of this year.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> is offering <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR (CSR AU)</a> shareholders A$9/share by way of a Scheme, a 34% premium to last close. That's a knockout price.</li>
<li>The Offer is indicative. Confirmatory due diligence is ongoing. CSR board has, not surprisingly "unanimously resolved to pursue the offer at an agreed price of A$9.00". </li>
<li>A firm offer would be subject to FIRB and shareholder approval. Neither should pose an issue. Assuming a firm Offer is shortly forthcoming, this could be wrapped up late-July</li>
</ul>



Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) is offering CSR (CSR AU) shareholders A$9/share by way of a Scheme, a 34% premium to last close. That's a knockout price.
The Offer is indicative. Confirmatory due diligence is ongoing. CSR board has, not surprisingly "unanimously resolved to pursue the offer at an agreed price of A$9.00". 
A firm offer would be subject to FIRB and shareholder approval. Neither should pose an issue. Assuming a firm Offer is shortly forthcoming, this could be wrapped up late-July


CSR (CSR AU): Saint Gobain's $9/Share NBIO

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Having lagged competitors on share price basis since Holcim/Lafarge merger, on 29 January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/holcim-ltd-7f60ceaa-51af-4f85-ac5f-114595eb04f3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27916:1" rel="noopener">Holcim (HOLN SW)</a> announced plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US.</li>
<li>Infrastructure and housing are reponsible for U.S. comparables to trade on 14.7x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA, in sharp contrast to 5.4x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA of European comparables. </li>
<li>Even if valuing the RoW business at the lower median European multiples, the spin-off should be value accretive. My fair value estimate of CHF 84.47/share represents 25.7% upside.</li>
</ul>


Having lagged competitors on share price basis since Holcim/Lafarge merger, on 29 January, Holcim (HOLN SW) announced plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US.
Infrastructure and housing are reponsible for U.S. comparables to trade on 14.7x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA, in sharp contrast to 5.4x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA of European comparables. 
Even if valuing the RoW business at the lower median European multiples, the spin-off should be value accretive. My fair value estimate of CHF 84.47/share represents 25.7% upside.


<ul>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a>. Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankook-company-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19369:1" rel="noopener">Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)</a>'s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.</li>
<li>If you had any <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.</li>
</ul>


Stay long Benefit One (2412 JP). Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. 

Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)'s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.
If you had any Toyo Construction (1890 JP) left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

<ul>
<li>I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Six new deals discussed this week, all Down Under: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adbri-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20166:1" rel="noopener">Adbri (ABC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-smiles-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2891:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/probiotec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12047:1" rel="noopener">Probiotec (PBP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2b-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16558:1" rel="noopener">A2B Australia (A2B AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whispir-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29125:1" rel="noopener">Whispir (WSP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30603:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Power International (LPI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Six new deals discussed this week, all Down Under: Adbri (ABC AU), Link Administration (LNK AU), Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), Probiotec (PBP AU), A2B Australia (A2B AU), and Whispir (WSP AU).
Key updates took place on: Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Lithium Power International (LPI AU), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), and Toyo Construction (1890 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Adbri, Link Admin, Azure Minerals, Lithium Power, JSR Corp

Ireland

CRH Public Limited Company provides building materials. The Company manufactures and distributes a wide range of architectural, infrastructure, and construction products for infrastructure, housing, and commercial projects. CRH serves customers Worldwide.

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CRH (CRH US)

Adbri (ABC AU): CRH/Barro's Firm Offer

Trading tight at a gross/annualised spread of 1.9%/5.7%. IF YOU ARE AN ARBITRAGEUR, get involved on any material dips. IF YOU ARE A LONG-ONLY, I'd...

David Blennerhassett

Value from US Spin-Off

Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Adbri, Link Admin, Azure Minerals, Lithium Power, JSR Corp

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Adbri (ABC AU): CRH/Barro's Firm Offer

Trading tight at a gross/annualised spread of 1.9%/5.7%. IF YOU ARE AN ARBITRAGEUR, get involved on any material dips. IF YOU ARE A LONG-ONLY, I'd...

David Blennerhassett

CSR (CSR AU): Saint Gobain's $9/Share NBIO

Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 8.0%/19.7%, assuming late Jul completion. An arbitrageur might get involved here and on any material dips....

David Blennerhassett

Value from US Spin-Off

​Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Adbri, Link Admin, Azure Minerals, Lithium Power, JSR Corp

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.