Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>7-11 play <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)</a></strong> is coming up "cheap" on my monitor versus cash &amp; carry subsidiary <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-makro-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5577:1" rel="noopener">Siam Makro Public (MAKRO TB)</a></strong>. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on CPALL/MAKRO are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


7-11 play CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) is coming up "cheap" on my monitor versus cash &amp; carry subsidiary Siam Makro Public (MAKRO TB). 
Preceding my comments on CPALL/MAKRO are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: CPALL Trading "Cheap" To MAKRO

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-plaza-hotel-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18213:1" rel="noopener">Central Plaza Hotel</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/com7-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27411:1" rel="noopener">Com7 PCL</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-life-assurance-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16237:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Life Assurance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 2-4 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 0.6-3 days of ADV on the deletes.</li>
<li>The adds have significantly outperformed the deletes over the last few months. We'd use any big moves over the next couple of days to trim positions.</li>
</ul>



Central Plaza Hotel, Com7 PCL, Delta Electronics Thai and Ratch Group will replace Bangkok Life Assurance, IRPC PCL, KCE Electronics PCL and Srisawad Power in the SET 50 Index. 
Passive trackers will need to buy between 2-4 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 0.6-3 days of ADV on the deletes.
The adds have significantly outperformed the deletes over the last few months. We'd use any big moves over the next couple of days to trim positions.


SET50 Index Rebalance: CENTEL, COM7, DELTA, RATCH Added; BLA, IRPC, KCE, SAWAD Out

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt72. Key growth driver for CPALL in 4Q22 and 2023 should be 1) an increase in number of customers in stores following</li>
<li>Expect robust performance in 4Q22-2023 Same-stores-sales growth (SSSG) for convenience stores (CVS) in Oct 2022 remained positive around 17%-19% YoY compared to 22.1% YoY in 3Q22 due to base effect.</li>
<li>Store expansion still on track:There are 13,660 convenience stores at the end of September 2022.The company open 526 stores in 9M22 or 75% of full-year target of 700 stores (+5%YoY).  </li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt72. Key growth driver for CPALL in 4Q22 and 2023 should be 1) an increase in number of customers in stores following
Expect robust performance in 4Q22-2023 Same-stores-sales growth (SSSG) for convenience stores (CVS) in Oct 2022 remained positive around 17%-19% YoY compared to 22.1% YoY in 3Q22 due to base effect.
Store expansion still on track:There are 13,660 convenience stores at the end of September 2022.The company open 526 stores in 9M22 or 75% of full-year target of 700 stores (+5%YoY).  


CPALL : Positive Catalyst from Tourism Recovery

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt72.00. The company’s 3Q22 net profit came in at Bt3.68bn (+146%YoY, +22%QoQ), 12% above BB consensus estimated. The strong earnings mainly driven</li>
<li>Solid 3Q22 profit thanks to healthy non-food margin   Its core profit came out at Bt3.8bn (+159%YoY, +24%QoQ),the highest in the past three quarters. The 9M22 result accounted for 73% </li>
<li>The YoY and QoQ growth in earnings driven by 1) an increase in revenue from all business (convenience stores business, grocery wholesaling and retailing business) </li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt72.00. The company’s 3Q22 net profit came in at Bt3.68bn (+146%YoY, +22%QoQ), 12% above BB consensus estimated. The strong earnings mainly driven
Solid 3Q22 profit thanks to healthy non-food margin   Its core profit came out at Bt3.8bn (+159%YoY, +24%QoQ),the highest in the past three quarters. The 9M22 result accounted for 73% 
The YoY and QoQ growth in earnings driven by 1) an increase in revenue from all business (convenience stores business, grocery wholesaling and retailing business) 


CPALL : Impressive 3Q22 Earnings Driven by Healthy Margin

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.</li>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL,</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-selamat-sempurna-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10909:1" rel="noopener">Selamat Sempurna</a>  </li>
<li>There were also insights on Thai macro, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-net-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1050:1" rel="noopener">Link Net</a>, Avanseus Holdings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6061:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Energy</a>, and Singapore's first green bond. </li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
The past week saw insights on Ace Hardware Indonesia, United TractorsCP ALL, and Selamat Sempurna  
There were also insights on Thai macro, Link Net, Avanseus Holdings, Adaro Energy, and Singapore's first green bond. 


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Ace Hardware SSSG Turns Up, United Tractors, and CPALL

Thailand

CP ALL PCL operates convenience store chains in Thailand and China.  The Company also owns and operates the a department store chain located primarily in Shanghai city and Chonqing city of China.

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CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)

StubWorld: CPALL Trading "Cheap" To MAKRO

Both CPALL and MAKRO are trading a trifle rich. Yet MAKRO is structurally a different beast after the acquisition of Lotus. I'd tilt towards a set...

David Blennerhassett

SET50 Index Rebalance: CENTEL, COM7, DELTA, RATCH Added; BLA, IRPC, KCE, SAWAD Out

There are 4 changes for the SET50 Index in Dec, all in line with forecasts. Passive trackers will need to buy between 2-4 days ADV on the adds...

Brian Freitas

CPALL : Positive Catalyst from Tourism Recovery

Maintain BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt72. Key growth driver for CPALL in 4Q22 and 2023 should be 1) an increase in number of...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CPALL : Impressive 3Q22 Earnings Driven by Healthy Margin

Maintain BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt72.00. The company’s 3Q22 net profit came in at Bt3.68bn (+146%YoY, +22%QoQ), 12% above BB...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Ace Hardware SSSG Turns Up, United Tractors, and CPALL

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

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