ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker'</a>s modern trade supply chain under Big C continues to benefit from the tourism recovery, with 25 dedicated tourism stores and another 35 secondary tourism stores. </li>
<li>Tourism stores carry a slightly different mix of SKUs versus regular stores, which generate higher margins. Big C continues to expand its store network and margins are moving upwards.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker</a> provides direct exposure to Big C but its other divisions including packaging and consumer supply chain provide exposure to both Thailand and Vietnam. Valuations are attractive versus history.</li>
</ul>



Berli Jucker's modern trade supply chain under Big C continues to benefit from the tourism recovery, with 25 dedicated tourism stores and another 35 secondary tourism stores. 
Tourism stores carry a slightly different mix of SKUs versus regular stores, which generate higher margins. Big C continues to expand its store network and margins are moving upwards.

Berli Jucker provides direct exposure to Big C but its other divisions including packaging and consumer supply chain provide exposure to both Thailand and Vietnam. Valuations are attractive versus history.


Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Big C's Tourism Factor

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There will be 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the close on 28 June.</li>
<li>All changes are in line with our forecasts, but one stock could be a surprise inclusion for some.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy 3.9% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-TAIL</a>, 3.7% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker</a>, 1.5% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern TidLor</a> and 1% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangchak-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15875:1" rel="noopener">Bangchak Corporation</a>.</li>
</ul>


There will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 28 June.
All changes are in line with our forecasts, but one stock could be a surprise inclusion for some.
Passive trackers will need to buy 3.9% of float in I-TAIL, 3.7% of float in Berli Jucker, 1.5% of float in Ngern TidLor and 1% of float in Bangchak Corporation.


SET50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes Next Week; One Could Surprise

<ul>
<li>The SET has run a market consultation on relaxing liquidity thresholds for inclusion of stocks in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> universe.</li>
<li>The consultation is the result of an increase in Average Daily Trading Values and lower turnover ratios, especially for large cap stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> is now a potential index inclusion in June and that could result in four constituent changes at the next rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The SET has run a market consultation on relaxing liquidity thresholds for inclusion of stocks in the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) universe.
The consultation is the result of an increase in Average Daily Trading Values and lower turnover ratios, especially for large cap stocks.

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) is now a potential index inclusion in June and that could result in four constituent changes at the next rebalance.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation & More Changes in June

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker</a> remains a core proxy for consumer recovery and increasing tourism numbers in Thailand, with earnings set to recover in 2024 driven by modern retail and packaging.</li>
<li>Modern retail through Big C has resumed its expansion momentum across all formats with Big C Mini driving growth and supporting its omnichannel efforts, with rental income also recovering.</li>
<li>The packaging business was impacted by the sluggish Vietnamese economy which impacted aluminium cans but new products and strong performance from glass should support growth in 2024. Valuations look depressed.</li>
</ul>



Berli Jucker remains a core proxy for consumer recovery and increasing tourism numbers in Thailand, with earnings set to recover in 2024 driven by modern retail and packaging.
Modern retail through Big C has resumed its expansion momentum across all formats with Big C Mini driving growth and supporting its omnichannel efforts, with rental income also recovering.
The packaging business was impacted by the sluggish Vietnamese economy which impacted aluminium cans but new products and strong performance from glass should support growth in 2024. Valuations look depressed.


Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Well-Crafted Consumer Package

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in December with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics (KCE TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>. </li>
<li>There is one close change where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-TAIL (ITC TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> is unlikely to be deleted while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the SET 50 Index in December with KCE Electronics (KCE TB) replacing Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB). 
There is one close change where I-TAIL (ITC TB) could replace Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) in the index.

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is unlikely to be deleted while Berli Jucker (BJC TB) fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

Thailand

Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited provides construction services to public and private sectors including construction of expressways, public utilities, and industrial plants. Through it subsidiaries, the Company distributes construction materials.

Gunkul Engineering PCL is a power generation and engineering company that supplies hardware and accessory products used in electrical power transmission and distribution systems.

Dynasty Ceramic Public Company Limited produces ceramic floor tiles used for both indoor and outdoor construction and decoration.

Sino Thai Engineering & Construction Public Company Limited provides engineering and construction services to the public and private sectors.  The Company's activities include energy project construction, building construction, industrial plant construction, environment project construction, as well as transportation project and infrastructure construction.

Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction (STEC TB)

Vanachai Group Public Company Limited manufactures and distributes board panels as substitute for natural wood.  The Company's products include medium density fiber boards (MDF) and particle boards.  Its subsidiary also produces glue products.

BTS Group Holdings PCL is primarily in the business of Mass Transit.  The Company operates Bangkok's BTS SkyTrain system and the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) System. BTS Group Holdings PCL is also involved in Media & Advertising, Property Development, and Services business.

Bangkok Airways Company Limited offers air transportation services. The Company operates flights and airports to various resort destinations in Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, China, and Japan.

Italian-Thai Development PCL involves in construction, project management, and engineering and design of large-scale civil works and infrastructure projects in Thailand and Southeast Asia. The Company's projects include industrial plants, building, pipelines, transportation, airport work, dams, tunnels, steel structures and telecommunications.

Unique Engineering & Construction PCL is an engineering and construction company. The Company's services include bridge and tunnel construction and infrastructure design.

GT Capital Holdings Inc. is an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides banking, automotive, property development, infrastructure, utilities, and insurance services.

Keihan Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides passenger rail and bus transportation in Osaka and Kyoto prefectures.  The Company operates department stores, hotels, travel agents, and restaurants in the vicinity of its railway system.  The Company leases and sells real estate and offers a wide range of construction works.

Doosan Co., Ltd operates as a diversified manufacturing and service company. The Company conducts electronic components production, logistics equipment manufacturing, information technology consulting, and other businesses. Doosan provides services worldwide.

DMCI Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides general construction and infrastructure construction. DMCI also develops real estate and mines coal. In addition, DMCI manufactures cement and other products.

Hap Seng Consolidated Berhad is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates oil palm and cocoa plantations, trades heavy equipment and motor vehicles, fabricates and sells commercial trailers and tankers, provides leasing and money lending, and manufactures agricultural fertilizers, agro-chemicals, building materials, and plantation supplies.

Dubai Investments PJSC offers venture capital.  The Company invests in joint ventures and local companies.  Dubai Investments holds interests in dairy farms, publishers and real estate developers, and manufacturers of glass, pharmaceuticals, vegetable oils, building materials, and aluminum extrusions.

Shanghai Industrial Holdings Limited is an investment holding company that focuses on three core businesses: infrastructure facilities, real estate and consumer products. SIHL invests in toll road projects, water-related business, property development, investment, hotel operation, the manufacturing and sale of cigarettes, packaging materials and printed products.

Nava Bharat Ventures Limited manufactures ferro alloys which are utilized by the steel industry. The Company also generates & distributes power and manufactures sugar.

China Baoan Group Co., Ltd. develops, leases, and manages residential and commercial real estate properties in Shenzhen, Wuhan, Hainan, and Shanghai areas.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also produces medical products and sells its products on a retail chain stores basis.

Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Corporation is an electrical company. The Company manufactures, markets, and installs refrigerating systems for commercial and industrial purposes.

Berli Jucker PCL is a large Thai conglomerate whose business spans various industries. The Company's operations include the distribution and manufacturing of its own products plus contract distribution and manufacturing for other firms. BJC's core lines of business are packaging, consumer, healthcare, technical and other businesses.

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Berli Jucker (BJC TB)