ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> booked a solid result for 2Q2024 although impacted by a seasonal slowdown in retail but has new management in place pushing fresh and private labels. </li>
<li>Big C continues to expand its retail footprint across formats helping to drive positive growth and higher margins. The packaging segment is pushing out new products and costs have fallen. </li>
<li>BJC provides broad exposure to consumption in Thailand and increasingly Southeast Asia with the Big C IPO as a potential positive catalyst. Valuations remain attractive as money flows to Thailand. </li>
</ul>



Berli Jucker (BJC TB) booked a solid result for 2Q2024 although impacted by a seasonal slowdown in retail but has new management in place pushing fresh and private labels. 
Big C continues to expand its retail footprint across formats helping to drive positive growth and higher margins. The packaging segment is pushing out new products and costs have fallen. 
BJC provides broad exposure to consumption in Thailand and increasingly Southeast Asia with the Big C IPO as a potential positive catalyst. Valuations remain attractive as money flows to Thailand. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker'</a>s modern trade supply chain under Big C continues to benefit from the tourism recovery, with 25 dedicated tourism stores and another 35 secondary tourism stores. </li>
<li>Tourism stores carry a slightly different mix of SKUs versus regular stores, which generate higher margins. Big C continues to expand its store network and margins are moving upwards.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker</a> provides direct exposure to Big C but its other divisions including packaging and consumer supply chain provide exposure to both Thailand and Vietnam. Valuations are attractive versus history.</li>
</ul>



Berli Jucker's modern trade supply chain under Big C continues to benefit from the tourism recovery, with 25 dedicated tourism stores and another 35 secondary tourism stores. 
Tourism stores carry a slightly different mix of SKUs versus regular stores, which generate higher margins. Big C continues to expand its store network and margins are moving upwards.

Berli Jucker provides direct exposure to Big C but its other divisions including packaging and consumer supply chain provide exposure to both Thailand and Vietnam. Valuations are attractive versus history.


Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Big C's Tourism Factor

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There will be 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the close on 28 June.</li>
<li>All changes are in line with our forecasts, but one stock could be a surprise inclusion for some.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy 3.9% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-TAIL</a>, 3.7% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker</a>, 1.5% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern TidLor</a> and 1% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangchak-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15875:1" rel="noopener">Bangchak Corporation</a>.</li>
</ul>


There will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 28 June.
All changes are in line with our forecasts, but one stock could be a surprise inclusion for some.
Passive trackers will need to buy 3.9% of float in I-TAIL, 3.7% of float in Berli Jucker, 1.5% of float in Ngern TidLor and 1% of float in Bangchak Corporation.


SET50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes Next Week; One Could Surprise

<ul>
<li>The SET has run a market consultation on relaxing liquidity thresholds for inclusion of stocks in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> universe.</li>
<li>The consultation is the result of an increase in Average Daily Trading Values and lower turnover ratios, especially for large cap stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> is now a potential index inclusion in June and that could result in four constituent changes at the next rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The SET has run a market consultation on relaxing liquidity thresholds for inclusion of stocks in the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) universe.
The consultation is the result of an increase in Average Daily Trading Values and lower turnover ratios, especially for large cap stocks.

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) is now a potential index inclusion in June and that could result in four constituent changes at the next rebalance.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation & More Changes in June

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker</a> remains a core proxy for consumer recovery and increasing tourism numbers in Thailand, with earnings set to recover in 2024 driven by modern retail and packaging.</li>
<li>Modern retail through Big C has resumed its expansion momentum across all formats with Big C Mini driving growth and supporting its omnichannel efforts, with rental income also recovering.</li>
<li>The packaging business was impacted by the sluggish Vietnamese economy which impacted aluminium cans but new products and strong performance from glass should support growth in 2024. Valuations look depressed.</li>
</ul>



Berli Jucker remains a core proxy for consumer recovery and increasing tourism numbers in Thailand, with earnings set to recover in 2024 driven by modern retail and packaging.
Modern retail through Big C has resumed its expansion momentum across all formats with Big C Mini driving growth and supporting its omnichannel efforts, with rental income also recovering.
The packaging business was impacted by the sluggish Vietnamese economy which impacted aluminium cans but new products and strong performance from glass should support growth in 2024. Valuations look depressed.


Berli Jucker (BJC TB) - Well-Crafted Consumer Package

Thailand

Berli Jucker PCL is a large Thai conglomerate whose business spans various industries. The Company's operations include the distribution and manufacturing of its own products plus contract distribution and manufacturing for other firms. BJC's core lines of business are packaging, consumer, healthcare, technical and other businesses.

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Berli Jucker (BJC TB)