Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<p>The Fair Trade Commission has warned that it will intensively monitor the abuse of such big techs as Coupang, Naver, and Kakao. In particular, the Fair Trade Commission pointed out that these big techs are unfairly selling their own products/services by manipulating search algorithms on their platforms.</p><p>This was directly mentioned by Cho Sung-wook, chairman of the Fair Trade Commission. Chairman Cho Seong-wook mentioned at the European Chamber of Commerce in Korea breakfast meeting on Friday that the FTC's top priority for the second half of this year would be regulating local big tech platforms.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/229/193/original/Screen+Shot+2021-09-10+at+11.37.01+PM.png?1631331436" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="229193"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">(Courtesy Dong-A Ilbo)</div><div class="content-highlight"><p><a href="https://www.donga.com/news/Economy/article/all/20210911/109199629/1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Here is the link to the news article by Dong-A Ilbo about this matter.</a></p></div><p>In addition, Kim Jae-shin, vice-chairman of the Fair Trade Commission, pointed out that “the possibility of platform operators manipulating the search algorithm in a way that is advantageous to them cannot be ruled out.” He also said, "The FTC will strictly respond to the platform operators' act of adjusting and distorting the rules to give preference to their products and services."</p><p>The following remarks from vice-chairman Kim are critical. He directly mentioned Coupang and Naver as examples of search algorithm manipulation. In fact, Coupang has been under investigation by the Fair Trade Commission since July on charges of manipulating the search algorithm to expose its own brand (PB) products before the products of 3rd-party sellers.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/229/199/original/Screen+Shot+2021-09-10+at+11.46.40+PM.png?1631332146" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="229199"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">(Courtesy Dong-A Ilbo)</div>

The Fair Trade Commission has warned that it will intensively monitor the abuse of such big techs as Coupang, Naver, and Kakao. In particular, the Fair Trade Commission pointed out that these big techs are unfairly selling their own products/services by manipulating search algorithms on their platforms.This was directly mentioned by Cho Sung-wook, chairman of the Fair Trade Commission. Chairman Cho Seong-wook mentioned at the European Chamber of Commerce in Korea breakfast meeting on Friday that the FTC's top priority for the second half of this year would be regulating local big tech platforms.(Courtesy Dong-A Ilbo)Here is the link to the news article by Dong-A Ilbo about this matter.In addition, Kim Jae-shin, vice-chairman of the Fair Trade Commission, pointed out that “the possibility of platform operators manipulating the search algorithm in a way that is advantageous to them cannot be ruled out.” He also said, "The FTC will strictly respond to the platform operators' act of adjusting and distorting the rules to give preference to their products and services."The following remarks from vice-chairman Kim are critical. He directly mentioned Coupang and Naver as examples of search algorithm manipulation. In fact, Coupang has been under investigation by the Fair Trade Commission since July on charges of manipulating the search algorithm to expose its own brand (PB) products before the products of 3rd-party sellers.(Courtesy Dong-A Ilbo)

Korea FTC Says It Will Regulate Coupang on Search Algorithm Manipulation

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.</p></div><div><p>As of 1H21, KP had a total of 36m users and around 20m monthly active users (MAU). It processed a total GMV of KRW66.9tn in 2020 and it had already generated KRW47.9tn GMV in 1H21 itself. As of the end of 1H21, it had dealings with more than 610,000 affiliated stores and 100 financial institutions.</p></div><div><p>Since spinning out from Kakao in 2017, the number of MAUs have grown 14x from 2Q17 to 2Q21, while the quarterly transaction amount grew 61x from KRW0.4tn in 2Q17 to KRW24.5tn in 2Q21. </p></div><div><p>Over the past few years the company has been expanding its offering beyond payment processing to include other financial products. On the back of this, its revenue has been growing faster than its GMV.</p></div><div>
<p>We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-guided-by-ant-financial-to-be-a-mini-ant" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to be a mini Ant </a>and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-peer-comparison-local-and-international" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Peer comparison - local and international</a>.</p>
<p>In this note we will talk about valuations and the latest announcement by the regulators.</p>
</div>

Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.As of 1H21, KP had a total of 36m users and around 20m monthly active users (MAU). It processed a total GMV of KRW66.9tn in 2020 and it had already generated KRW47.9tn GMV in 1H21 itself. As of the end of 1H21, it had dealings with more than 610,000 affiliated stores and 100 financial institutions.Since spinning out from Kakao in 2017, the number of MAUs have grown 14x from 2Q17 to 2Q21, while the quarterly transaction amount grew 61x from KRW0.4tn in 2Q17 to KRW24.5tn in 2Q21. Over the past few years the company has been expanding its offering beyond payment processing to include other financial products. On the back of this, its revenue has been growing faster than its GMV.
We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to be a mini Ant and  Kakao Pay IPO - Peer comparison - local and international.
In this note we will talk about valuations and the latest announcement by the regulators.


Kakao Pay IPO - Valuation and Likely Impact of Latest Announcement

<p>Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.</p><p>As of 1H21, KP had a total of 36m users and around 20m monthly active users (MAU). It processed a total GMV of KRW66.9tn in 2020 and it had already generated KRW47.9tn GMV in 1H21 itself. As of the end of 1H21, it had dealings with more than 610,000 affiliated stores and 100 financial institutions.</p><p>Since spinning out from Kakao in 2017, the number of MAUs have grown 14x from 2Q17 to 2Q21, while the quarterly transaction amount grew 61x from KRW0.4tn in 2Q17 to KRW24.5tn in 2Q21. </p><p>Over the past few years the company has been expanding its offering beyond payment processing to include other financial products. On the back of this, its revenue has been growing faster than its GMV.</p><p>We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-guided-by-ant-financial-to-be-a-mini-ant" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to be a mini Ant</a>.</p><p>In this note we will undertake a peer comparison.</p>

Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.As of 1H21, KP had a total of 36m users and around 20m monthly active users (MAU). It processed a total GMV of KRW66.9tn in 2020 and it had already generated KRW47.9tn GMV in 1H21 itself. As of the end of 1H21, it had dealings with more than 610,000 affiliated stores and 100 financial institutions.Since spinning out from Kakao in 2017, the number of MAUs have grown 14x from 2Q17 to 2Q21, while the quarterly transaction amount grew 61x from KRW0.4tn in 2Q17 to KRW24.5tn in 2Q21. Over the past few years the company has been expanding its offering beyond payment processing to include other financial products. On the back of this, its revenue has been growing faster than its GMV.We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier note, Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to be a mini Ant.In this note we will undertake a peer comparison.

Kakao Pay IPO - Peer Comparison - Local and International

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<p>In this insight, we discuss the combination of the end of the lock-up period for Coupang on September 7th and the start of the Amazon Global Store Korea will likely to put further negative pressures on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a>'s shares in the coming days. Starting September 7th, there is a whopping <strong>83% of outstanding shares</strong> that could be sold due to the end of the lock-down period.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>In our view, Softbank may try to sell as much of $3 billion in Coupang shares over the next 6-12 months, which represents nearly 5.8% of current market cap. We do believe that Softbank will try to recoup at least its original investment of nearly $3 billion.</p>
<p>A $3 billion investment is a big amount of money.<strong> If we assume a 30% per annum ROI required by Softbank (taking into consideration the time value of money of the two investments made in 2015 and 2018), this means that AT MINIMUM, Coupang's market cap would need to be $28 billion (which would suggest $16 per share).</strong> <em>At $16 per share, this would represent a further 46% lower levels than the current price of $29.65.</em></p>
</div>

In this insight, we discuss the combination of the end of the lock-up period for Coupang on September 7th and the start of the Amazon Global Store Korea will likely to put further negative pressures on Coupang (CPNG US)'s shares in the coming days. Starting September 7th, there is a whopping 83% of outstanding shares that could be sold due to the end of the lock-down period.

In our view, Softbank may try to sell as much of $3 billion in Coupang shares over the next 6-12 months, which represents nearly 5.8% of current market cap. We do believe that Softbank will try to recoup at least its original investment of nearly $3 billion.
A $3 billion investment is a big amount of money. If we assume a 30% per annum ROI required by Softbank (taking into consideration the time value of money of the two investments made in 2015 and 2018), this means that AT MINIMUM, Coupang's market cap would need to be $28 billion (which would suggest $16 per share). At $16 per share, this would represent a further 46% lower levels than the current price of $29.65.


End of Lock Up Period + Start of Amazon Global Store Korea = Lower Share Price Likely for Coupang

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>On 31 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> finally launched its 'Amazon Global Store' in South Korea in partnership with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a>'s e-commerce platform 11th. Amazon and 11th have been working on the details of this new service for many months and it has finally become available for millions of consumers in Korea.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<p>With the launch of Amazon Global Store Korea, this has been the end of a long decade plus journey of when Amazon would enter Korea. For now, Amazon has joined hands with SK Telecom although this partnership could change several years from now when Amazon could decide to operate alone Korea. In the next few months, we see millions of Korean consumers flocking to the Amazon Global Store Korean website (<a href="https://www.11st.co.kr/amazon/best" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www.11st.co.kr/amazon/best).</a> 11st (SK Telecom) will play a pivotal role in this roll-out as a key partner. </p>
<p><strong>Trading Ideas</strong> - In our view, we like a long-short trading idea of long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US) </a>at current levels. With the launch of Amazon Global Store in Korea, this will directly threat Coupang and likely to result in lower sales growth for the company for the rest of 2021. We also continue to have a positive view of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a>.</p>
</div>

On 31 August, Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) finally launched its 'Amazon Global Store' in South Korea in partnership with SK Telecom (017670 KS)'s e-commerce platform 11th. Amazon and 11th have been working on the details of this new service for many months and it has finally become available for millions of consumers in Korea.
With the launch of Amazon Global Store Korea, this has been the end of a long decade plus journey of when Amazon would enter Korea. For now, Amazon has joined hands with SK Telecom although this partnership could change several years from now when Amazon could decide to operate alone Korea. In the next few months, we see millions of Korean consumers flocking to the Amazon Global Store Korean website (https://www.11st.co.kr/amazon/best). 11st (SK Telecom) will play a pivotal role in this roll-out as a key partner. 
Trading Ideas - In our view, we like a long-short trading idea of long SK Telecom (017670 KS) and short Coupang (CPNG US) at current levels. With the launch of Amazon Global Store in Korea, this will directly threat Coupang and likely to result in lower sales growth for the company for the rest of 2021. We also continue to have a positive view of SK Telecom (017670 KS).


Amazon Global Store Finally Launches in Korea - In Partnership with 11st (SK Telecom)

South Korea

Coupang, Inc. operates as an e-commerce company. The Company offers dynamic end-to-end e-commerce and logistic solutions. Coupang serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Coupang (CPNG US)

Korea FTC Says It Will Regulate Coupang on Search Algorithm Manipulation

The FTC has warned that it will intensively monitor the abuse of such big techs as Coupang for their search algorithm manipulation. We should use...

Sanghyun Park

Kakao Pay IPO - Valuation and Likely Impact of Latest Announcement

Kakao Pay, one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55%...

Sumeet Singh

Kakao Pay IPO - Peer Comparison - Local and International

Kakao Pay, one of South Korea’s largest payment apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to...

Sumeet Singh

Amazon Global Store Finally Launches in Korea - In Partnership with 11st (SK Telecom)

Amazon Global Store Korea has finally launched (in partnership with SK Telecom's 11st) and this is likely to lead to a big increase in millions of...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Korea FTC Says It Will Regulate Coupang on Search Algorithm Manipulation

The FTC has warned that it will intensively monitor the abuse of such big techs as Coupang for their search algorithm manipulation. We should use...

Sanghyun Park

Kakao Pay IPO - Valuation and Likely Impact of Latest Announcement

Kakao Pay, one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55%...

Sumeet Singh

Kakao Pay IPO - Peer Comparison - Local and International

Kakao Pay, one of South Korea’s largest payment apps, aims to raise up to US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to...

Sumeet Singh

End of Lock Up Period + Start of Amazon Global Store Korea = Lower Share Price Likely for Coupang

The combination of the end of the lock-up period for Coupang on September 7th and the start of the Amazon Global Store Korea are likely to put...

Douglas Kim

Amazon Global Store Finally Launches in Korea - In Partnership with 11st (SK Telecom)

Amazon Global Store Korea has finally launched (in partnership with SK Telecom's 11st) and this is likely to lead to a big increase in millions of...

Douglas Kim