Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>CTG Duty-Free Group has priced its IPO at HK$158 per share, at a slight premium to the midpoint of the indicative IPO price range of HK$143.5-165.5 per share.</li>
<li>At HK$158 per share, the company raised net proceeds of HK$15,892.3 (approx. US$2.0bn) and the IPO is priced at an almost 30% discount to CTG’s A-share last close price.</li>
<li>Cornerstone investors subscribed for approx. 38.4% of the H-share offering (or 1.9% of the total issued share capital of the company post-offering) with some existing shareholders subscribing under placing guidelines.</li>
</ul>


CTG Duty-Free Group has priced its IPO at HK$158 per share, at a slight premium to the midpoint of the indicative IPO price range of HK$143.5-165.5 per share.
At HK$158 per share, the company raised net proceeds of HK$15,892.3 (approx. US$2.0bn) and the IPO is priced at an almost 30% discount to CTG’s A-share last close price.
Cornerstone investors subscribed for approx. 38.4% of the H-share offering (or 1.9% of the total issued share capital of the company post-offering) with some existing shareholders subscribing under placing guidelines.


CTG Duty-Free H-Share Listing: Thoughts on First Day Trading

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Orient Overseas International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1H22 is a fantastic period for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> with record earnings. However, with retreat in freight rates YTD, it is likely to mark the cycle peak.</li>
<li>OOIL has not seen the usual peak season for transpacific market yet.  Also, supply pressure is mounting as record vessel delivery is scheduled for the next two years.</li>
<li>The elevated share price has not reflected that profitability will decline in FY23 and FY24. We see significant downside risk as the market becomes more realistic on earnings.</li>
</ul>


1H22 is a fantastic period for Orient Overseas International (316 HK) with record earnings. However, with retreat in freight rates YTD, it is likely to mark the cycle peak.
OOIL has not seen the usual peak season for transpacific market yet.  Also, supply pressure is mounting as record vessel delivery is scheduled for the next two years.
The elevated share price has not reflected that profitability will decline in FY23 and FY24. We see significant downside risk as the market becomes more realistic on earnings.


Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Don't Overlook the Downhill Risks

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We estimate that inflows for June was USD 11bn, led by consumer staple and financial sectors.</li>
<li>We highlight monthly inflows into Moutai, Yili, East Money, Tongwei, and Inovance.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
We estimate that inflows for June was USD 11bn, led by consumer staple and financial sectors.
We highlight monthly inflows into Moutai, Yili, East Money, Tongwei, and Inovance.


Northbound Flows Monthly (June): $11bn Inflows

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Consumer staple, industrials, and material sector led the inflow of USD 5.7bn last week.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Moutai, Yili, China Tourism, Longi, Beijing Orient Yuhong.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Consumer staple, industrials, and material sector led the inflow of USD 5.7bn last week.
We highlight inflows into Moutai, Yili, China Tourism, Longi, Beijing Orient Yuhong.


Northbound Flows: $5.7bn Inflows, Biggest Since Dec

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

LONGi Green Energy Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Hong Kong Stock-Shanghai and Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.</li>
<li>Overall, net inflow was ~US$6.5bn, split between Shanghai (+US$5.5bn) and Shenzhen (+US$1.0bn).</li>
<li>The largest inflows were into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longi-green-energy-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12703:1" rel="noopener">LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kweichow-moutai-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1553:1" rel="noopener">Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)</a>. The largest outflows were in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (300750 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-holdings-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27590:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Holdings (601919 CH)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Hong Kong Stock-Shanghai and Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.
Overall, net inflow was ~US$6.5bn, split between Shanghai (+US$5.5bn) and Shenzhen (+US$1.0bn).
The largest inflows were into LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH) and Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH). The largest outflows were in CATL (300750 CH) and Cosco Shipping Holdings (601919 CH).


Shanghai/​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (9 June 2022)

China

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. offers shipping services. The Company provides container shipping, terminal operation, bulk shipping, and container leasing services. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings conducts businesses worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (601919 CH)

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Don't Overlook the Downhill Risks

We see profit peaked out in 1H22, and with the fall in spot freight rate, it is difficult to sustain the elevated share price. Heavy supply influx...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Northbound Flows Monthly (June): $11bn Inflows

We estimate $11bn inflow into A-share market through northbound in June and highlight monthly inflows into Moutai, Yili, East Money, Tongwei, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows: $5.7bn Inflows, Biggest Since Dec

We highlight northbound Shanghai Shenzhen Connect inflows into Moutai, Yili, China Tourism, Longi, Beijing Orient Yuhong.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai/Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (9 June 2022)

Overall, net inflow was ~US$6.5bn, and was roughly split between Shanghai Northbound (+US$5.5bn) and Shenzhen Northbound (+US$1.0bn).

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CTG Duty-Free H-Share Listing: Thoughts on First Day Trading

CTG has priced its HK IPO at HK$158 per share and we think shares are overvalued. We expect the shares to open weak given the not so great investor...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Don't Overlook the Downhill Risks

We see profit peaked out in 1H22, and with the fall in spot freight rate, it is difficult to sustain the elevated share price. Heavy supply influx...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Northbound Flows Monthly (June): $11bn Inflows

We estimate $11bn inflow into A-share market through northbound in June and highlight monthly inflows into Moutai, Yili, East Money, Tongwei, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows: $5.7bn Inflows, Biggest Since Dec

We highlight northbound Shanghai Shenzhen Connect inflows into Moutai, Yili, China Tourism, Longi, Beijing Orient Yuhong.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai/​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (9 June 2022)

Overall, net inflow was ~US$6.5bn, and was roughly split between Shanghai Northbound (+US$5.5bn) and Shenzhen Northbound (+US$1.0bn).

David Blennerhassett

Shanghai/Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (9 June 2022)