Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>With increasing market volatility, base metals continue their rocky weekly performance. Copper is up marginally, taking it past 9000 USD/ton.</li>
<li>Copper inventories continue to pile at the exchanges, with ~500k tons combined at Comex, LME, and Shanghai, up almost 7% in the last two weeks. </li>
<li>We believe accumulating names like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ivanhoe-mines-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN)</a> with good long-term fundamentals is a great strategy. </li>
</ul>


With increasing market volatility, base metals continue their rocky weekly performance. Copper is up marginally, taking it past 9000 USD/ton.
Copper inventories continue to pile at the exchanges, with ~500k tons combined at Comex, LME, and Shanghai, up almost 7% in the last two weeks. 
We believe accumulating names like Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) with good long-term fundamentals is a great strategy. 


Copper Tracker August 19th, 2024: Markets Volatile, Accumulate Good Copper Names On Weakness

Hot Topics in Global Metals & Mining Each Week, BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

Hot Topics in Global Metals & Mining Each Week

Featuring Colin Hamilton, Commodities analyst at BMO Capital Markets, Metal Matters discusses the hot topics in Global Metals & Mining each week.

<ul><li>China's state grid is increasing spending by 13% this year, which could boost sentiment in the copper sector</li><li>Chinese steel rebar standards are changing, leading to concerns about obsolete inventories and potential pressure on steel prices</li><li>India's rising demand for metals, particularly in steel production, could have a significant impact on the global market by 2030</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

China's state grid is increasing spending by 13% this year, which could boost sentiment in the copper sectorChinese steel rebar standards are changing, leading to concerns about obsolete inventories and potential pressure on steel pricesIndia's rising demand for metals, particularly in steel production, could have a significant impact on the global market by 2030This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul>
<li>Copper declined below the 9,000 USD/ton levels (WoW by -0.5%) due to weakness in financial markets caused by the Federal Reserve's slowness in cutting rates. </li>
<li>Positive signs for copper were the Yangshan Copper Premium inflecting into positive territory and combined inventory on all exchanges being drawn down by almost 5%. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> will acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/filo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42545:1" rel="noopener">Filo (FIL CN)</a> for 4.1 bn CAD and develop the <a href="https://lundinmining.com/news/lundin-mining-and-bhp-to-acquire-filo-and-form-a-5-123162/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Josemaria project in Argentina</a>. </li>
</ul>


Copper declined below the 9,000 USD/ton levels (WoW by -0.5%) due to weakness in financial markets caused by the Federal Reserve's slowness in cutting rates. 
Positive signs for copper were the Yangshan Copper Premium inflecting into positive territory and combined inventory on all exchanges being drawn down by almost 5%. 

Lundin Mining (LUN CN) and BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) will acquire Filo (FIL CN) for 4.1 bn CAD and develop the Josemaria project in Argentina. 


Copper Tracker August 5th, 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades, Positive Signs For Copper

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> posted a 6% EBITDA beat and a 17% EPS beat buoyed by higher pricing of copper and by-products</li>
<li>Sales/EBITDA/Profit increased by 35.5%/61%/72% YoY. It also guided a positive outlook for copper, highlighting a tightening of the physical market boding well for future quarters. </li>
<li>The board paid a 1.20 USD/share quarterly dividend in 50:50 scrip/cash. It will probably continue this practice, considering the elevated capex/ debt repayment of 500 mn USD in April 2025.</li>
</ul>



Southern Copper (SCCO US) posted a 6% EBITDA beat and a 17% EPS beat buoyed by higher pricing of copper and by-products
Sales/EBITDA/Profit increased by 35.5%/61%/72% YoY. It also guided a positive outlook for copper, highlighting a tightening of the physical market boding well for future quarters. 
The board paid a 1.20 USD/share quarterly dividend in 50:50 scrip/cash. It will probably continue this practice, considering the elevated capex/ debt repayment of 500 mn USD in April 2025.


Southern Copper (SCCO US) Concall Highlights: Great Q2 2024, FY24 Production Guide Up

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supply</li>
<li>Copper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA tool</li>
<li>It’s a tuck or war between positioning and fundamentals in metals. Crude tumbling despite all time highs in global flight data and crowded congestion
</li>
</ul>


Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supply
Copper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA tool
It’s a tuck or war between positioning and fundamentals in metals. Crude tumbling despite all time highs in global flight data and crowded congestion



Energy Cable: More pain to come in copper, while Nat Gas is a long trade?

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Copper Tracker August 19th, 2024: Markets Volatile, Accumulate Good Copper Names On Weakness

This brief insight summarizes Copper's performance and equities on our screens. We highlight our research and trades to explore.

Sameer Taneja

Getting the Grid Connection Back

China's state grid is set to increase spending by 13% this year, potentially boosting sentiment in the copper sector, while new standards for...

BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

Copper Tracker August 5th, 2024: Physical/Equity Screens And Trades, Positive Signs For Copper

This brief insight summarizes Copper's performance and equities on our screens. We highlight our research and trades to explore.

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper (SCCO US) Concall Highlights: Great Q2 2024, FY24 Production Guide Up

We summarize the Q2 2024 conference call and results for Southern Copper (SCCO US). It is the best-in-class pure-play operator for copper with...

Sameer Taneja

Energy Cable: More pain to come in copper, while Nat Gas is a long trade?

Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supplyCopper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA toolIt’s a tuck or war...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Copper Tracker August 19th, 2024: Markets Volatile, Accumulate Good Copper Names On Weakness

This brief insight summarizes Copper's performance and equities on our screens. We highlight our research and trades to explore.

Sameer Taneja

Getting the Grid Connection Back

China's state grid is set to increase spending by 13% this year, potentially boosting sentiment in the copper sector, while new standards for...

BMO Equity Research Metal Matters

Copper Tracker August 5th, 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades, Positive Signs For Copper

This brief insight summarizes Copper's performance and equities on our screens. We highlight our research and trades to explore.

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper (SCCO US) Concall Highlights: Great Q2 2024, FY24 Production Guide Up

We summarize the Q2 2024 conference call and results for Southern Copper (SCCO US). It is the best-in-class pure-play operator for copper with...

Sameer Taneja

Energy Cable: More pain to come in copper, while Nat Gas is a long trade?

Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supplyCopper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA toolIt’s a tuck or war...

Steno Research

Copper Tracker August 5th, 2024: Physical/Equity Screens And Trades, Positive Signs For Copper