Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Commodities

<ul><li>Copper is central to global infrastructure and the transition to renewable energy.</li><li>Zambia, a key player in the Central African Copperbelt, holds immense promise for copper investors, boasting some of the world’s richest geological assets.</li><li>This white paper explores Zambia’s copper mining landscape, highlighting the interplay of global demand, supply challenges, and Zambia’s evolving mining ecosystem.</li></ul>

Copper is central to global infrastructure and the transition to renewable energy.Zambia, a key player in the Central African Copperbelt, holds immense promise for copper investors, boasting some of the world’s richest geological assets.This white paper explores Zambia’s copper mining landscape, highlighting the interplay of global demand, supply challenges, and Zambia’s evolving mining ecosystem.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>Disappointing September/October China lending data with TSF down 9%/24% YoY to 3.7/1.4 trillion RMB Vs. (analysts expectations of 4/1.5 trillion RMB) has led to skepticism about China's recovery story.</li>
<li>Copper prices have dropped below 9000 USD/ton and stayed there despite the fall of exchange inventories. </li>
<li>We like the LT copper story and see <span>long-term benefits for stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ivanhoe-mines-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a></span>. </li>
</ul>


Disappointing September/October China lending data with TSF down 9%/24% YoY to 3.7/1.4 trillion RMB Vs. (analysts expectations of 4/1.5 trillion RMB) has led to skepticism about China's recovery story.
Copper prices have dropped below 9000 USD/ton and stayed there despite the fall of exchange inventories. 
We like the LT copper story and see long-term benefits for stocks like Southern Copper (SCCO US), Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN), and Teck Resources (TECK US). 


Copper Tracker 25th November 2024: TSF Disappoints, What Next?

<ul>
<li>The Ministry of Finance has decided to end the 13% export tax rebate on copper effective December 1st, 2024. Copper semi-producers rely on this rebate to remain profitable. </li>
<li>Copper semi-producers might rush to sell their inventory by 1st December when changes take effect, which may affect prices and distort differentials on the SHFE-LME. </li>
<li>
<span>As long-term bulls, we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>; under 100 USD/share, it is worth exploring.</span> We also believe a long LME short SHFE trade in the short-term could work.  </li>
</ul>


The Ministry of Finance has decided to end the 13% export tax rebate on copper effective December 1st, 2024. Copper semi-producers rely on this rebate to remain profitable. 
Copper semi-producers might rush to sell their inventory by 1st December when changes take effect, which may affect prices and distort differentials on the SHFE-LME. 

As long-term bulls, we like Southern Copper (SCCO US); under 100 USD/share, it is worth exploring. We also believe a long LME short SHFE trade in the short-term could work.  


Copper Tracker Nov 18th, 2024: Export Tax Rebate Cancellation on Copper Throws Market in A Tizzy

<ul>
<li>We follow up on our coverage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> since our first insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/southern-copper-in-a-league-of-its-own" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:139839" rel="noopener">Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own</a> </li>
<li>The company's revenues/profits have beaten estimates for Q3 2024, up 17%/45% YoY, as opposed to the street estimates of 13%/32% YoY; we expect minor upgrades to earnings. </li>
<li>Trading at 30x PE FY24e, with a 3.5% dividend yield (with 10 Yr- ROCE&gt;22%), we would be excited whenever we see this name at a &lt;100 USD/share level. </li>
</ul>


We follow up on our coverage of Southern Copper (SCCO US) since our first insight, Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own 
The company's revenues/profits have beaten estimates for Q3 2024, up 17%/45% YoY, as opposed to the street estimates of 13%/32% YoY; we expect minor upgrades to earnings. 
Trading at 30x PE FY24e, with a 3.5% dividend yield (with 10 Yr- ROCE&gt;22%), we would be excited whenever we see this name at a &lt;100 USD/share level. 


Southern Copper Q3 2024 Concall: Another Small Beat, Future Production Estimates Inline

<ul>
<li>Copper prices were down slightly, WoW, by 0.3% YoY, as the effect of China's stimulus plan announcements waned, with investors viewing them more skeptically.</li>
<li>With 58% of the metal's demand arising from China, we expect the short-term malaise to be felt unless China makes punchier fiscal stimulus announcements soon. </li>
<li>We believe high-quality equities like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ivanhoe-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25338:1" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN)</a> will continue to be resilient and prefer exposure to copper in those names.</li>
</ul>


Copper prices were down slightly, WoW, by 0.3% YoY, as the effect of China's stimulus plan announcements waned, with investors viewing them more skeptically.
With 58% of the metal's demand arising from China, we expect the short-term malaise to be felt unless China makes punchier fiscal stimulus announcements soon. 
We believe high-quality equities like Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) will continue to be resilient and prefer exposure to copper in those names.


Copper Tracker Oct 21st, 2024: The China Malaise Sets In

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Zambia’s Copper Renaissance

Navigating Opportunities and Challenges in Africa’s Most Promising Copper Jurisdiction. Copper is central to global infrastructure and the...

Massif Capital Research

Copper Tracker 25th November 2024: TSF Disappoints, What Next?

We analyze China lending (TSF), a forward indicator for copper demand. There has been no pick up in lending yet in China, which has resulted in the...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker Nov 18th, 2024: Export Tax Rebate Cancellation on Copper Throws Market in A Tizzy

We analyze the impact of China's recent 13% export duty rebate cancellation on copper and the valuations of our favorite copper picks after the...

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper Q3 2024 Concall: Another Small Beat, Future Production Estimates Inline

We summarize the Q3 2024 results and the conference call for Southern Copper (SCCO US), the low-cost copper producer with a >20% ROCE across the...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker Oct 21st, 2024: The China Malaise Sets In

We highlight our top picks in the copper space and news from the copper world as the investing world starts to get skeptical about China's stimulus...

Sameer Taneja

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