Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Our macro view has been and remains bullish the USD and bearish metals with copper as a tactical bounce play that will disappoint. Near term, a USD and yield dip will set up shorts in metals after gold's break below 1,790 pivot support.Platinum turned down from the top of the rising wedge at 1,150 and broke support at 1,050 that is now fresh short resistance.We are bullish yield from 1.13% on the 10yr and will be supportive in the next USD rally phase.Yield curve shows increasing evidence of steepening.

Our macro view has been and remains bullish the USD and bearish metals with copper as a tactical bounce play that will disappoint. Near term, a USD and yield dip will set up shorts in metals after gold's break below 1,790 pivot support.Platinum turned down from the top of the rising wedge at 1,150 and broke support at 1,050 that is now fresh short resistance.We are bullish yield from 1.13% on the 10yr and will be supportive in the next USD rally phase.Yield curve shows increasing evidence of steepening.

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

Cross market developments over the past week point to real yields moving deeper into negative territory in the US. The combination of higher commodity prices, a break higher on breakevens and and anchored nominal yields will likely result in support for hard assets like Gold and Real Estate, both of which are looking more interesting

Cross market developments over the past week point to real yields moving deeper into negative territory in the US. The combination of higher commodity prices, a break higher on breakevens and and anchored nominal yields will likely result in support for hard assets like Gold and Real Estate, both of which are looking more interesting

Real Yields - Focus Again on Hard Assets?

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>This year's narrative from US treasuries suggests a short-lived inflation/overheating scare in Q1, which coincided with Winter Storm Uri and the Texas power crisis, along with an initial phase of tapering talk from regional Fed presidents which subsequently faded; since the March peak, 10yr yields are down -45bps or a whopping -26%, representing the view that inflationary pressures have been entirely transitory</li>
<li>The picture from 5yr TIPS breakevens and the 5yr5yr has been more closely attuned to commodities:  In the past 6 months, 5yr TIPS breakevens and 5yr5yr have been 74% and 70% correlated with copper prices vs. the 10yr yield's 46%, though correlations with oil have been low; breakevens peaked with copper in May and bottomed in June-July</li>
<li>While 10yr yields continued to grind lower in July, our text mining is picking up a new surge in reports of supply constraints, which have been strongly correlated with breakevens and reflect corporate commentary in the current earnings season</li>
<li>The inflation narrative from treasuries appears to be asynchronous with the Q2 earnings season narrative from cyclical corporates, who are uniformly reporting worsening raw materials inflation expected in Q3 and lingering supply constraints</li>
<li>Nonetheless, our text mining acknowledges that talk of tightening financial conditions last spiked in March and has not resurfaced since, and expectations of a massive US infrastructure package have faded</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


This year's narrative from US treasuries suggests a short-lived inflation/overheating scare in Q1, which coincided with Winter Storm Uri and the Texas power crisis, along with an initial phase of tapering talk from regional Fed presidents which subsequently faded; since the March peak, 10yr yields are down -45bps or a whopping -26%, representing the view that inflationary pressures have been entirely transitory
The picture from 5yr TIPS breakevens and the 5yr5yr has been more closely attuned to commodities:  In the past 6 months, 5yr TIPS breakevens and 5yr5yr have been 74% and 70% correlated with copper prices vs. the 10yr yield's 46%, though correlations with oil have been low; breakevens peaked with copper in May and bottomed in June-July
While 10yr yields continued to grind lower in July, our text mining is picking up a new surge in reports of supply constraints, which have been strongly correlated with breakevens and reflect corporate commentary in the current earnings season
The inflation narrative from treasuries appears to be asynchronous with the Q2 earnings season narrative from cyclical corporates, who are uniformly reporting worsening raw materials inflation expected in Q3 and lingering supply constraints
Nonetheless, our text mining acknowledges that talk of tightening financial conditions last spiked in March and has not resurfaced since, and expectations of a massive US infrastructure package have faded
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Asynchronous Inflation Narratives

The developments taking place on Copper and the wider London Metals Exchange Index, indicate further gains from here in base metals. The corrections over the past couple of months seem to be over and we might even be ready to rally back to the trend highs.Should that unfold, it would only bring inflationary pressures back to the fore and help push breakevens higher, which has already started to happen.Combining that with the recent trouble in Chinese equities &amp; the low nominal yields has resulted in the lowest ever print on US 10 year real yield today.Unless one believes nominal yields are going to shoot up quickly (not a belief held here even if there seems to be little value in Bonds) then this picture should continue to provide a positive backdrop for precious metals and a negative one for the USD generally.

The developments taking place on Copper and the wider London Metals Exchange Index, indicate further gains from here in base metals. The corrections over the past couple of months seem to be over and we might even be ready to rally back to the trend highs.Should that unfold, it would only bring inflationary pressures back to the fore and help push breakevens higher, which has already started to happen.Combining that with the recent trouble in Chinese equities &amp; the low nominal yields has resulted in the lowest ever print on US 10 year real yield today.Unless one believes nominal yields are going to shoot up quickly (not a belief held here even if there seems to be little value in Bonds) then this picture should continue to provide a positive backdrop for precious metals and a negative one for the USD generally.

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research

Short Metals Targets

Our macro view remains USD bullish and bearish metals with copper as a tactical bounce play. A USD and yield dip will set up shorts in metals after...

Thomas Schroeder

Real Yields - Focus Again on Hard Assets?

US real yields continue to look likely to move deeper into negative territory allowing Gold and real estate to perform well

Shyam Devani

TMI Snapshot: Asynchronous Inflation Narratives

While the bond market continues to dismiss inflationary pressures, our text mining picked up a recent spike in mentions of supply constraints as...

Elan Gore

Bonds & Commodities - An Interesting Mix

Higher Base metals bring inflationary concerns. When combined with low nominal yields we are now at the lowest level on US 10Y real yield which...

Shyam Devani

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