Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In the ‘80s, independent economist Yardeni coined the term ‘‘bond vigilantes’’ to refer to fixed income investors disciplining authorities for running inflationary fiscal and monetary policies and ultimately restoring order through the bond market.</li>
<li>In 2022, we are witnessing the first preliminary signs of the return of the global macro vigilantes</li>
<li>Amongst others, George Soros is an eminent member of this selected group of macro investors who challenge policymakers across countries and relentlessly chase regime-change narratives once they see a good opportunity</li>
</ul>


In the ‘80s, independent economist Yardeni coined the term ‘‘bond vigilantes’’ to refer to fixed income investors disciplining authorities for running inflationary fiscal and monetary policies and ultimately restoring order through the bond market.
In 2022, we are witnessing the first preliminary signs of the return of the global macro vigilantes
Amongst others, George Soros is an eminent member of this selected group of macro investors who challenge policymakers across countries and relentlessly chase regime-change narratives once they see a good opportunity


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. </li>
<li>These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.</li>
<li>Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.</li>
</ul>


Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. 
These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.
Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.


Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Australian stock market has started the year with a decent pop through good levels amounting to a bullish breakout</li>
<li>The setup argues for a rally of 3% to new highs which could be seen in the days ahead</li>
<li>Additional developments in commodities and the currency also suggest a brighter outlook in the short term</li>
</ul>


The Australian stock market has started the year with a decent pop through good levels amounting to a bullish breakout
The setup argues for a rally of 3% to new highs which could be seen in the days ahead
Additional developments in commodities and the currency also suggest a brighter outlook in the short term


Financial Select Sector SPDR F / Technical Analysis

We continue to see a steady flow of risk-on signals that have us moving toward an outright bullish outlook for the broad US equity market. Below we discuss several bullish developments that leads us to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" that we have referenced since late March.Charts highlighted: XLF, KBE, Copper, US Dollar, IWD, XLY, Bitcoin, S&amp;P 500, APO, LPLA, ARCC, JHG, KKR, ALLY, CACC, OMF, CIT, WD, GATX, LC, CODI, WRLD, ATLC, BCPC, TROX, ASPN, ASIX, LXU, HWKN, MOS, CF, ICL, SQM, UAN, IPI

We continue to see a steady flow of risk-on signals that have us moving toward an outright bullish outlook for the broad US equity market. Below we discuss several bullish developments that leads us to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" that we have referenced since late March.Charts highlighted: XLF, KBE, Copper, US Dollar, IWD, XLY, Bitcoin, S&amp;P 500, APO, LPLA, ARCC, JHG, KKR, ALLY, CACC, OMF, CIT, WD, GATX, LC, CODI, WRLD, ATLC, BCPC, TROX, ASPN, ASIX, LXU, HWKN, MOS, CF, ICL, SQM, UAN, IPI

Upgrading Financials To Overweight; Downgrading Communications To Market Weight

In late August Oil showed signs that a rise towards $85 could be seen. That target has effectively been met, thus encouraging a more neutral stance in the near term, especially as major levels around $87-$90 are just overheadHowever, this does not apply to the wider commodities space. Copper has rallied through key levels pointing to the trend highs again. The London Metals Exchange Index is already making new trend highs and will soon to make all-time highs.As a consequence, even though there might be some ‘relief’ in the energy space, the rise in metals prices are likely to keep any degree of inflation concerns in place.

In late August Oil showed signs that a rise towards $85 could be seen. That target has effectively been met, thus encouraging a more neutral stance in the near term, especially as major levels around $87-$90 are just overheadHowever, this does not apply to the wider commodities space. Copper has rallied through key levels pointing to the trend highs again. The London Metals Exchange Index is already making new trend highs and will soon to make all-time highs.As a consequence, even though there might be some ‘relief’ in the energy space, the rise in metals prices are likely to keep any degree of inflation concerns in place.

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

The Macro Vigilantes Are Waking Up

‘‘We're in a brave new world of excesses in fiscal and monetary policy, and that's where the bond vigilantes thrive’’ Ed Yardeni In the ‘80s,...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a...

Vermilion Research

Australia’s Bullish Prospects

The breakout in Australia's stock market looks encouraging especially when coupled with indications in other related markets.

Shyam Devani

Upgrading Financials To Overweight; Downgrading Communications To Market Weight

We are upgrading Financials to overweight; Financial Sector ETFs (XLF, RYF), banks (KBE, KRE), and insurance stocks (KIE) are all breaking out to...

Vermilion Research

Oil Target Met but Metals on the Up

Brent Crude has effectively met the $85 target with major levels just overhead. While some relief may be seen here, Metals are moving up which...

Shyam Devani

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