Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.</li>
<li>The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.</li>
<li>In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.
The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.
In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.


Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Wheat futures soared as much as 9%, the biggest jump since 2012, as Russia threatened ships sailing to Ukrainian ports, escalating a conflict over exports from the key Black Sea region.</li><li>Russia’s defense ministry said that all ships headed to the ports from Thursday will be considered as potentially carrying military cargo.</li><li>It also said flag countries of vessels sailing to Ukraine will be considered as on Kyiv’s side in the conflict.</li></ul>

Wheat futures soared as much as 9%, the biggest jump since 2012, as Russia threatened ships sailing to Ukrainian ports, escalating a conflict over exports from the key Black Sea region.Russia’s defense ministry said that all ships headed to the ports from Thursday will be considered as potentially carrying military cargo.It also said flag countries of vessels sailing to Ukraine will be considered as on Kyiv’s side in the conflict.

Wheat explodes after Russia threatens to attack grain shipments // Dollar-Commodities Divergence

<ul><li>Welcome to the final series of our “Business Cycle Week”, where we cover how a possible rebound in manufacturing might affect asset markets, and if markets are already starting to position for it.</li><li>Commodities is the only asset class we need to tick off, and what a way to end the business cycle week with the most cyclical asset of them all, looking to benefit the most from a rebound in manufacturing.</li><li>Commodities have had a rough 2022 (and start of 2023) as USD strength and a lack of Chinese demand have held commodities prices down, despite the scarcity that characterizes the market currently.</li></ul>

Welcome to the final series of our “Business Cycle Week”, where we cover how a possible rebound in manufacturing might affect asset markets, and if markets are already starting to position for it.Commodities is the only asset class we need to tick off, and what a way to end the business cycle week with the most cyclical asset of them all, looking to benefit the most from a rebound in manufacturing.Commodities have had a rough 2022 (and start of 2023) as USD strength and a lack of Chinese demand have held commodities prices down, despite the scarcity that characterizes the market currently.

Commodity Watch – A rebound in the most cyclical asset class?

<ul><li>Global crop production growth will mainly be driven by continued progress in plant breeding and a transition to more intensive production systems.</li><li>Yield improvements are projected to account for 79% of global crop production growth, cropland expansion for 15%, and higher cropping intensity for 6% over the outlook period.</li><li>Global growth of sugar consumption will be driven entirely by Africa and Asia, with demand projected to surge in areas where the level of per capita intake is currently low.</li></ul>

Global crop production growth will mainly be driven by continued progress in plant breeding and a transition to more intensive production systems.Yield improvements are projected to account for 79% of global crop production growth, cropland expansion for 15%, and higher cropping intensity for 6% over the outlook period.Global growth of sugar consumption will be driven entirely by Africa and Asia, with demand projected to surge in areas where the level of per capita intake is currently low.

How Much Do Commodity Prices Rise when Fertilizer Prices Rise?

<ul><li>Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? In last week’s report, we already highlighted that the golden metal stays unattractive - as the Fed will likely do more rate hikes.</li><li>The, in some parts, stronger-than-expected job market data we received last week confirmed that view once again.</li><li>We find it interesting that gold hasn’t shown more weakness yet - even as rates continue to rise again.</li></ul>

Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? In last week’s report, we already highlighted that the golden metal stays unattractive - as the Fed will likely do more rate hikes.The, in some parts, stronger-than-expected job market data we received last week confirmed that view once again.We find it interesting that gold hasn’t shown more weakness yet - even as rates continue to rise again.

Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? // The Big Sugar Rush

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

Happy Saturday, and welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found...

Steno Research

Wheat explodes after Russia threatens to attack grain shipments // Dollar-Commodities Divergence

Wheat futures soared as much as 9%, the biggest jump since 2012, as Russia threatened ships sailing to Ukrainian ports, escalating a conflict over...

The Commodity Report

Commodity Watch – A rebound in the most cyclical asset class?

Welcome to the final series of our “Business Cycle Week”, where we cover how a possible rebound in manufacturing might affect asset markets, and...

Steno Research

How Much Do Commodity Prices Rise when Fertilizer Prices Rise?

Global crop production growth will mainly be driven by continued progress in plant breeding and a transition to more intensive production systems.

The Commodity Report

Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? // The Big Sugar Rush

Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? In last week’s report, we already highlighted that the golden metal stays unattractive - as the Fed will...

The Commodity Report

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